Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

045 
WWAK73 PAFG 131200
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 AM AKST Thu Jan 13 2022

AKZ226-131300-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220113T1500Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
300 AM AKST Thu Jan 13 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKST Wed Jan 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The seasonably warm and rather tranquil weather will continue
across most of Northern Alaska as we finish up the work week.
Light snow will continue to fall from Norton Sound up across the
Western Interior and along and north of the Yukon River west of
Fort Yukon through Thursday morning. Expect an additional 1 to 3
inches of snow in this band of snow before it tapers off. Gusty
winds with blowing and drifting snow in the Alaska Range Passes,
Tanana Valley Jet areas, and through the Bering Strait will
continue over the next several days. Summits across the Interior
will have easterly winds becoming gusty Thursday night into
Friday, with notable blowing and drifting snow expected given the
recent fluffy snowfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Analysis and Upper Levels...
A broad upper level low continues to hang out over the central
Aleutians, still sending that warm southerly flow over most of
mainland Alaska. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the North Slope is
being pulled into this low over the Aleutians, assisted by a 538
dam ridge near Wrangel Island. A band of snow continues to fall in
a deformation zone between the shortwave over the North Slope, and
the southerly flow from the Aleutians low. This band of snow moved
a bit north this morning, after dropping 1-3 inches across the
Fairbanks area. The band now stretches from Norton Sound up
across the Western Interior and into the western Yukon Flats. At
the surface, high pressure extends from E Russia into the North
Slope, while strong low pressure persists under the upper low in
the Aleutians. This is leading to gusty north winds and blowing
and drifting snow from the southern Chukchi Sea through the
Bering Strait.

Models...
Models initialized well at 12Z and are in good agreement on the
pattern over the next few days. The upper level low in the
central Aleutians will shift north into the southern Bering Sea
through Friday as it pulls in a strong stacked low moving from
the N Pacific into Southwest Alaska. So, the warm southerly flow
aloft over most of mainland Alaska will continue to persist into
the early part of the weekend. The aforementioned band of snow
will gradually fall apart tonight through Thursday morning, with
another 1-3 inches expected. Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning, a 970 mb low will move into Southwest Alaska, sending a
front with light snow across the YK Delta and Interior. With
strong high pressure in place over the Arctic, this low moving
into Southwest Alaska will also tighten the pressure gradient
across the area, leading to gusty easterly winds over Interior
summits, and along the West Coast and North Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Overall, cloudy skies, warm temperatures, and periods of snow
will continue the rest of the week. The band of snow from
last night has shifted north, but will continue to sit along and
north of the Yukon River through early Thursday morning. Expect an
additional 1 to 3 inches in this area, which includes Tanana,
Bettles, and Fort Yukon. Thursday afternoon through Friday morning,
a strong low moving into Southwest Alaska will send a front
across the Alaska Range and into the area. Chinook winds will
cause most areas south of the Yukon River to see very little snowfall,
while areas along and north of the Yukon River can expect a few
inches of snow with the front. The strong surface low combined
with high pressure in the Arctic will lead to gusty easterly
winds developing late on Thursday, especially over summits. These
gusty winds will be strongest over the summits north of Fairbanks,
and will lead to notable blowing and drifting of the recent snow.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas for
falling, blowing, and drifting snow creating difficult travel
conditions. Southerly winds through Alaska Range passes and
easterly winds near Delta Junction will also be gusty at times and
lead to periods of blowing and drifting snow. The gusty winds
across the area are expected to weaken Friday night into Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow continues to fall in areas south and east of a line
from Nome to Ambler, while areas to the north and west of this
line are seeing mostly clear skies and some gusty north winds. These
conditions will not change much through tonight, with the area
from Kaltag and Unalakleet to Ruby and Hughes seeing an additional
1-3 inches of snow before tapering off Thursday morning. The gusty north
to northeast winds from Point Hope through the Bering Strait and
into St Lawrence Island continue to lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow. These winds will become gustier late Thursday into
Friday morning as a strong surface low moves into Southwest
Alaska, tightening the pressure gradient across the area, with the
strongest winds north of Cape Espenberg. This tight gradient will
also bring gusty east to northeast winds and blowing snow to
inland locations, especially over the higher terrain. Winds in the
inland areas will weaken late on Friday, but winds will remain
gusty from Point Hope through the Bering Strait into the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mostly cloudy across the area today, with areas of light snow and
fog. The cold wind chills along the coast east of Deadhorse will
improve overnight, as winds weaken, but elsewhere conditions will
not change much through Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon
through Friday, northeast winds will strengthen to around 10-20
mph along the entire coast, strongest from Point Lay west where
winds will gust 30-40 mph. Blowing and drifting snow is expected
across the area with these gusty northeast winds, which will start
to weaken Friday night. Otherwise, expect a slight cool down in
temperatures, and areas of light snow and fog to hang around into
the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Models are in fair agreement on the large-scale pattern through
Sunday, but start to vary a bit for the beginning of next week.
In general, a blend of the guidance has the upper level low over
the Aleutians weakening and pushing east across South- Central
Alaska Sunday, with ridging building from the Gulf of Alaska into
Southwest Alaska and west-northwest flow aloft over the rest of
Northern Alaska through Tuesday. So, expect continued warm
temperatures and periods of snow for areas south of the Brooks
Range through Sunday, before becoming drier and cooler for early
next week. North of the Brooks Range, there will not be much of a
change in the pattern from over the weekend into early next week,
with continued relatively cool temperatures. A few of the models
are bringing in notably colder air for the North Slope and
Interior early next week, but the poor run-to-run and intra-model
consistency makes this hard to trust.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

CULVER JAN 22