Wind Advisory 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

055 
WWAK73 PAFG 141007
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 AM AKDT Sun Aug 14 2022

AKZ226-142100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220814T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
207 AM AKDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near passes in the Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

347 
WWAK73 PAFG 141856
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1056 AM AKDT Sun Aug 14 2022

AKZ226-142000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220814T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1056 AM AKDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria, but will remain 
gusty in and near passes through this afternoon.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
456 AM AKDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is on tap across the Central and Eastern
Interior with highs topping out in the mid 70s for many locations
as ridging holds on. A cold front swinging southeast across the
North Slope along with energy moving north into the Interior will
bring on changes in the form of cooler temperatures and increased
chances of precipitation through the weekend across much of the
Western Interior. In other news, north northwest winds 15 to 30
mph will develop this afternoon along the coast, south of Point
Hope to the Bering Strait, causing elevated surf with minor beach
erosion for north facing coastlines through Sunday, such as
Shishmaref, Deering, and Kotzebue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern at 500 hpa consists of an upper level ridge
nosing northwest across the Eastern Interior into the Central
Interior, while broad troughing stretches from an upper level low
in the Arctic south across the West Coast and Western Interior to
a 546 decameter (dam) low near Kodiak. A shortwave dropping south
from the low over the Arctic, stretching from the Bering Strait
northeast across the Northwest Arctic Coast, will push south to
Norton Sound this afternoon and to the YK Delta this evening.
Another shortwave will dive south from the low in the Arctic
Sunday, strengthening and pushing the trough axis east across the
Western Interior. By Monday, this shortwave will become a closed
541 dam low over the Western Brooks Range. Meanwhile, the low near
Kodiak will meander north and weaken through the weekend. The
ridge axis across the Central and Eastern Interior will nudge
north and east as the troughing over the Bering and Western
Interior deepens, this will result in southerly flow across the
Alaska Range.

Model Discussion...
The models are in general good agreement on the evolution of
features on the synoptic scale over the next several days, with
the consensus of solutions having troughing digging south across
the West Coast and Western Interior while ridging tries to hold on
across the Central and Eastern Interior. For this morning's
forecast package, we went with a general blend of model solutions,
making minor changes to the inherited grids.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front moving inland across western portions of the region this
morning will slide east through the day, spreading chances of
precipitation with it primarily in the form of rain, with snow
possible in the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. An influx
of moisture from the south will bring additional chances of rain
and snow across the region Sunday, impacting the Central Brooks
Range the greatest. Expect a downward trend in temperatures this
weekend as cold air moves in behind the front, with highs by
Sunday in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain showers are sweeping across Kotzebue Sound and the Seward
Peninsula as a front dives southeast out of the Chukchi this
morning. This front will stall out before reaching the Western
Interior this afternoon as ridging to the east halts most of the
eastward propagation. Energy will lift north across the Western
Interior, west of the ridge that is holding strong across the
Central and Eastern Interior, late this afternoon and evening,
increasing chances of rain showers into and through Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances this afternoon will impact portions of the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley and to the east. North northwest winds 15
to 30 mph will develop this afternoon along the coast, south of
Point Hope to the Bering Strait, causing elevated surf with minor
beach erosion for northwest facing coastlines through Sunday.
Temperatures will top out in the 60s to near 70 inland today and
40s and 50s along the coast, with a gradual decrease in
temperatures Sunday into Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Are you ready for another warm day, well your in luck, we are
expecting many locations to see highs climb into the upper 60s to
mid 70s, with cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday. Lows over
the next several nights will dip down into the 40s and lower 50s.
Clouds will be increasing this afternoon for the Central Interior,
with more sun then clouds across the Eastern Interior. In other
news, with energy moving north across the Alaska Range combined
with the front sweeping southeast into the Western Interior, the
greatest chances of rain this weekend will primarily affect areas
west of Fairbanks. The isolated thunderstorm threat this
afternoon will affect portions of the Yukon Flats southwest to
Upper Kuskokwim Valley and east across the Alaska Range to the
AlCan, including Fairbanks. Another round of isolated
thunderstorms Sunday will impact locations north and east of
Fairbanks. Winds generally less than 15 mph from the south
southwest through Sunday, with the exception of higher elevations
Sunday where winds may increase in that 15 to 20 mph range.
Strongest winds will be through and near Alaska Range Passes this
weekend, where southerly gap winds 25 to 30 mph, with gusts up to
45 mph, are expected. Some of the gap winds may make it to Delta
Junction, where south winds may top out in the 15 to 20 mph range.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
For the extended period that begins on Tuesday, broad troughing
will remain entrenched across the Bering Sea, West Coast, and
Western Interior, while weak ridging tries to hold on over the
Eastern Interior. This will bring unsettled conditions and cooler
temperatures across the West Coast and Western Interior, while a
mix of sun and clouds along with chances of showers to the Eastern
and Central Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ridging over the Eastern and Central Interior will result in warm
and relatively dry conditions continuing through the weekend,
with highs topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon,
with highs on Sunday being slightly cooler. Lows over the next
several nights will dip down into the 40s and lower 50s. Minimum
RH values will remain above 30 percent this weekend into early
next week, with good overnight recovery. The best chances of
widespread showers will occur west of the ridge across the Western
Interior, with the isolated thunderstorm threat remaining over
the Central and Eastern Interior. Winds generally less than 15 mph
from the south southwest through Sunday across much of the
Interior, with the exception of higher elevations Sunday where
winds may increase in that 15 to 20 mph range. Strongest winds
will be through and near Alaska Range Passes this weekend, where
southerly gap winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, are
expected. Some of the gap winds may make it to Delta Junction,
where south winds may top out in the 15 to 20 mph range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time, for the latest river forecasts go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

RZ AUG 22