Storm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

124 
FZAK52 PAFG 170005
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171430-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
The remnants of Typhoon Merbok is moving NE. By Sat morning 
Typhoon Merbok will be near Savoonga at 953 mb with low pressure 
extending east to MacKenzie Bay. High pressure in the Arctic will 
be pushed NE. By Sun morning Typhoon Merbok will be near Point 
Hope at 980 mb with low pressure extending E to a 999 mb low in 
MacKenzie Bay.

$$

PKZ200-171430-
Norton Sound-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...S winds 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ201-171430-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...SW winds 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-171430-
Dall Point to Wales-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...SW winds 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-171430-
Kotzebue Sound-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-171430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...E winds 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 22

135 
FZAK52 PAFG 171212
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-180200-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
The remnants of Typhoon Merbok have moved to the Bering Strait at
951 mb. By Sun morning the remnants of Typhoon Merbok will be 
near Point Hope at 980 mb, and Mon morning in the Northern Chukchi
Sea at 993 mb. A weather front moving around the low will move to
the NE Bering Sea Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-180200-
Norton Sound-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 50 kt decreasing to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ201-180200-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 50 kt decreasing to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Fog,
rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-180200-
Dall Point to Wales-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-180200-
Kotzebue Sound-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-180200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
412 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Sep 22

763 
FZAK52 PAFG 172222
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-181430-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
The remnants of Typhoon Merbok have moved through the Bering 
Strait at 968 mb. By Sun morning, these remnants will be near 
Point Hope at 983 mb, and remaining quasi-stationary into Mon 
morning but weakening to 994 mb as a weather front pushes N over 
the offshore waters. A weather front moving around the low will 
move to the NE Bering Sea Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-181430-
Norton Sound-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft. Fog,
rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ201-181430-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-181430-
Dall Point to Wales-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-181430-
Kotzebue Sound-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-181430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
222 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
500 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
All eyes are focused on the remnants of Typhoon Merbok as it
moves north through the Bering Sea Friday through Sunday.
Residents along the coast south of the Bering Strait are
encouraged to rapidly finish preparations for the remnants of
Typhoon Merbok as conditions will rapidly deteriorate during the
day Friday south of the Bering Strait and Friday night north of
the Bering Strait. This is a dangerous storm that is expected to
produce widespread coastal flooding south of the Bering strait
with water levels approaching levels not seen in nearly 50 years.
Very strong winds are expected with this storm with wind gusts
along the coast in Norton sound to around 80 mph and wind gusts to
near 90 mph expected through the Bering Strait, on Little Diomede
Island, on St Lawrence Island and along the outer capes in the YK
Delta. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds in the Western Interior.
Expect gusty winds through the Alaska Range Passes through Friday
evening where a Wind Advisory has been issued. Much more tranquil
weather expected over the rest of the Northern Alaska with mostly
cloudy to partly cloudy skies, light winds and and isolated
showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

West Coast and Western Interior...

South of the Bering Strait

Residents along the coast south of the Bering Strait are
encouraged to rapidly finish preparations for the remnants of
Typhoon Merbok as conditions will rapidly deteriorate during the
day Friday south of the Bering Strait and Friday night north of
the Bering Strait. This is a dangerous storm that is expected to
produce widespread coastal flooding south of the Bering strait
with water levels approaching levels not seen in nearly 50 years.
Water levels along the southern shores of the Seward Peninsula
are expected to reach 8 to 12 feet above the normal high tide
line. This will be an extended storm with high water levels
continuing 10 to 14 hours, this will allow wind driven waves on
top of the surge mentioned above to push far inland and produce
additional damage. This storm is also expected to produce strong
and damaging winds along the coast with locations in Norton Sound
expected to receive wind gust near 80 mph and locations such as St
Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait, Little Diomede Island and the
outer capes of the YK Delta to receive wind gusts near 90 mph.
Coastal Flood Warnings and High Wind Warnings have been issued for
these areas. Please see Coastal Flood Warning Statements and High
Wind Warnings for additional details.

North of the Bering Strait

Coastal Flood Watches for Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea coast
have been upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings beginning Saturday
morning and continuing into Sunday evening. Water levels in the
Kotzebue area are expected to rise 3 to 5 feet above the normal
high tide level and rise 5 to 7 feet above normal high tide level
near Shishmaref. Along the Chukchi Coast near Kivalina water
levels are expected to rise 5 to 7 feet above the normal high tide
level. Wind gusts to 65 mph are possible north of the Bering
Strait. Please see Coastal Flood Warning Statements and High Wind
Warnings for additional details for these areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Overall tranquil pattern over the
Central and Interior with a few lingering showers this afternoon
diminishing this evening. A mix of mostly cloudy to partly cloudy
skies with temperatures slightly above seasonal normals. Winds
are mainly variable to 10 mph except near the Alaska Range passes
where south winds will be gusting to around 50 mph will continue
into Friday afternoon. Expect high temperatures Friday in the 50s
to around 60. Low temperatures tonight mainly in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Gusty mainly easterly winds will
diminish some overnight but will pick up again on Friday
afternoon and continue in the 20 to 30 mph range into Saturday.
Winds will increase again on Saturday nigh and into Sunday as
remnants of Typhoon Merbok push into the southern Chukchi Sea.
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for the Northwest Coast
with water levels rising 3 to 5 feet above normal high tide level
near west of Wainwright and rising 1 to 3 feet above normal high
tide level near Utqiagvik. High temperatures Friday will range
from the lower 50s on the Northwest Coast to around 40 for the
remainder of the area. Lows tonight in the 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
The remnants of Typhoon Merbok will move off into the Arctic with
showers across the state tapering off Monday. A short dry period
Monday night into Tuesday before a low moves out of the North
Pacific spreading more showers to the area. Models are not in step
with this next low but precipitation is expected to spread up the
West Coast. Another strong low will move to the Northeast Bering
Sea late next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall in the Alaska Range will produce some minor rises
in the streams and creeks flowing out of the range and some may
reach bankfull, but there are no flooding concerns at this time.
For the western areas, as the storm surge moves into the area and
combines with heavy rainfall expect water to back up Saturday with
flooding expected near the Yukon River upstream to Mountain
Village, and Kotlik, while flooding will also occur near the Snake
river near Nome. Flooding will be possible along the Wulik River
near Kivalina on Sunday as the storm surge backs up the river.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ211-212.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ211.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ212.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213-214.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ213-214.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ207.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ209-210.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-215-230-235.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-245.
&&