Storm Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of strong winds rain, freezing rain and snow are on
tap again today into Monday for a large swath of the West Coast as
a double barrel low pressure system moves north out of the
Northern Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea on Monday. Mainly rain
will fall this morning along the Coast in the YK Delta with
freezing rain inland. Freezing rain and snow will fall from the
Seward Peninsula north to Point Hope. Very strong winds southerly
winds ahead of a cold front will continue to produce elevated
water levels along south and west facing coastlines through
Tuesday. Gusty winds will develop through the Alaska Range Passes
this afternoon and evening and continue into tomorrow. Partial
clearing in the interior will give way to light snow Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 4th at 00z models suite much like the last several
model runs continues to struggle with system strength, track and
timing with a rapid progression of low pressure systems moving
north out of the Northern Pacific, through the Bering Sea and West
Coast of Alaska and into the Chukchi Sea. The progression of low
pressure systems is progged to continue with little improvement on
model performance anticipated over the next couple days.

Aloft a high amplitude ridge extending from the North Pole south
into the semi tropics will remain in place over Eastern Alaska
and the Yukon while a broad area of low pressure will continue
over Eastern Siberia and the Western Bering Sea into Tuesday of
next week when the ridge breaks down and is pushed eastward as the
broad area of upper level low pressure pushes east over Alaska.
This will bring a return to near normal temperatures to much of
Northern Alaska which has been 10 to 20 degrees above normal for
the last week.

On the surface a 978 mb low pressure system over the Gulf of
Anadyr and a 980 mb low in the Southern Bering Sea will
consolidate and move into the southern Chukchi Sea by Monday
morning. As the systems merge and move to the north a cold front
will push east onto shore today and will transition the mixed
precipitation back to all snow through this evening. Very strong
winds will push north today through the Northern Bering Sea with
near Storm Force winds expected through the Bering Strait through
Monday Morning. Winds will remain light over most of the interior
with the the exception of a Tanana Valley Jet developing from
Delta Junction to near Nenana this afternoon and tonight and gusty
southerly winds developing this afternoon and continuing into
Monday morning through the Alaska Range Passes ahead of a front
that will bring light snow over the Interior on Monday. A 964 mb
low is forecast to develop over the Western Bering Sea Sunday
night and Monday morning and move into the Gulf of Anadyr on
Monday. This will bring another round of strong southerly and then
southwesterly winds to the West Coast by Monday afternoon.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Snow and blowing snow continues
over the North Slope from Utqiagvik west as a low in the Chukchi
Sea continues to push to the north and west. Strong southeast
winds along the Arctic Coast and Plains to the East of Utqiagvik
will continue through tonight before diminishing Monday morning.
Expect gusty southerly winds to 35 mph to develop through the
Brooks Range Passes as strong leeside troughing. Winds will be
strongest near Point Lay with winds in the 35 to 45 mph range gusting
around 60 mph. Winds in the inland areas and Brooks Range 10 to
20 mph with gusts in the Brooks Range to around 35 mph. High
temperatures today will range from around 10 above to the mid 30s
above. Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits
to around 20 above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A double barrel low pressure
system in the Bering Sea will consolidate over just west of the
Bering Strait this evening and will produce very strong southerly
winds over much of the West Coast with Storm Force winds expected
today and tonight through the Bering Strait. As the low pressure
systems merge a strong cold front will push east this afternoon
and evening and will change the mixed precipitation back to all
snow this evening. Heavy snow is expected along the south slopes
of the Brooks Range. Heaviest ice accumulation will once again be
along the coast, but generally less than one tenth of an inch. See
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories for details. High
temperatures today will range from mid 20s to upper 30s above for
most of the area. Low temperatures tonight night they will mostly
be in the 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of Partly cloudy skies to
mostly cloudy skies is expected today over much of the interior.
Winds variable to around 5 mph, except south winds gusting to 50
mph near the Alaska Range passes, and Tanana Valley Jet setting up
around Delta Junction with winds gusting around 40 mph. Highs on
today will range from the single digits above to the lower 30s.
Low temperatures tonight will range from around zero to the upper
teens.

Coastal Hazard Potential Through Day 4...
A series of storms moving north through the Bering Sea and into
the Southern Chukchi Sea today and into next week will bring a
period of strong southerly winds to the West Coast from the Yukon
Delta northward to Point Hope ahead of the storm and strong
westerly winds behind the storm. The strong southerly and westerly
winds will bring elevated water levels with the potential for
water pushing up through cracks in the ice and ice pushing up onto
shore along south and west facing shorelines. Water levels will
begin rising on Sunday with highest levels expected on Monday and
Tuesday. Residents with interests along the coast should move
items well above the normal high tide level.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather front will move to
the West Coast Monday night bringing another round of freezing
rain and snow to the area with strong south winds gusting near 60
mph on the capes. The front will decay as it moves inland, but
will stall in Central and Eastern Interior as a strong low moves
to the Northern Gulf of Alaska sending lots of precipitation north
into the Alaska Range and Central and Eastern Interior Wednesday
and Thursday. A low moving across the Chukotsk will bring some
snow showers to the West Coast midweek. Quiet in the Arctic with
cloudy conditions and flurries or some light snow at times.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207>209-211-213-217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-212.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ200.
     Gale Warning for PKZ201-210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220-225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

AKZ207-211>214-051600-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Nome,
White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim,
Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller,
Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Marshall,
Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...Elevated Water Levels Possible Today Into Wednesday Along
South and West Facing Coastlines...

A series of storms moving north through the Bering Sea and into
the Southern Chukchi Sea today and into next week will bring a
period of strong southerly winds to the West Coast from the Yukon
Delta northward to Point Hope ahead of the storm and strong
westerly winds behind the storm. The strong southerly and westerly
winds will bring elevated water levels with the potential for
water pushing up through cracks in the ice and ice pushing up onto
shore along south and west facing shorelines. Water levels will
begin rising on Sunday with highest levels expected on Monday and
Tuesday. Residents with interests along the coast should move
items well above the normal high tide level.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

AKZ201-202-051615-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne,
Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
401 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...Elevated Sea Levels Sunday Night Through Tuesday...

Water levels will begin rising along the Arctic Coast from
Utqiagvik west on Sunday night, with the highest levels expected
on Monday. Water may push up on top of the sea ice, and could
cause ice to pile up on beaches from Utqiagvik west. No
infrastructure flooding is expected at this time. Residents with
belongings along the coast should move items inland from the
beach.

A series of strong storms moving north over the Bering and
Chukchi Seas through early next week will bring strong southerly
winds across the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The strong southerly
winds will bring elevated sea levels from Utqiagvik west Sunday
night through Tuesday.