Small Craft Advisory 252, NWS Fairbanks, AK

973 
FZAK52 PAFG 290042
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291515-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low in the Western Bering Sea will move to 200 NM west 
of Wrangel Is as a 1004 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to 70 NM northwest 
of Utqiagvik as a 1004 mb low by 3pm Wed. A weather front trailing
south from this low will move along the Dateline by 3pm Tue, along
the West Coast of Alaska by 9am Wed, then move inland. 

$$

PKZ200-291515-
Norton Sound-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Snow.
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ201-291515-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain with snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291515-
Dall Point to Wales-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291515-
Kotzebue Sound-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-291515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
342 PM AKST Mon Nov 28 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Nov 22

381 
FZAK52 PAFG 291358
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300345-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 mb low over Eastern Siberia will move to near Wrangel 
Island at 1006 mb by 1am Wed, to near Utqiagvik at 1004 mb by noon
Wed, and to near Barter Island at 1005 mb by 7pm Wed. A second 
low will move north from the Western Bering Sea through the Bering
Strait to near Shishmaref at 1008 mb by 10am Wed. A 1030 mb high 
will move to St. Matthew Island by 1pm Wed.

$$

PKZ200-300345-
Norton Sound-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Snow.
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Rain and freezing rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ201-300345-
Etolin Strait to Dall Point-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300345-
Dall Point to Wales-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing rain. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300345-
Kotzebue Sound-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-300345-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
458 AM AKST Tue Nov 29 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Nov 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered snow showers over the Bering Strait and NW
Alaska Coast, and flurries over the Eastern Interior will linger
into tonight, while the SW Interior and YK Delta have light snow
tonight.

High pressure over the West Coast will move over the Eastern
Interior Mon and remain there into Tue. This will cause clearing
skies, and rapidly cooling temperatures in the Eastern Interior
Mon into Tue with lows in the teens below to 30s below across the
Eastern Interior valleys by Tue along with strong inversions.

A weather front moving from Russia to NW Alaska by 3pm Tue, will
move east across much of Northern AK on Wed. Expect 4-8 inches of
snow over NW Alaska Tue PM into Wed PM with a chance of blizzard
conditions along the Coast from the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik.
The heaviest snow and strongest winds expected near Point Hope Tue
night. Significant snow amounts possible Wed into Thu Interior areas
and Eastern North Slope, but less certain at this time.
Temperatures will warm up dramatically with the front/snow.

A trailing storm moving into the West Coast Thu and Fri could
bring rain and snow and a chance of freezing rain Thu into Fri,
with heavy snow possible Fri night and Sat.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough stretching from
the North Pole south over Eastern Alaska and Western Canada, a
ridge from the Western Gulf of AK north over the Bering Sea/Chukotsk
Peninsula and Western Alaska, and another trough from the Sea of
Okhotsk south over the Western Pacific. The ridge will build
slowly through 3am Mon, then build east over Mainland AK Mon into
Tue, then persist through the end of the week.

A weak short wave trough from Circle to Delta Junction will move
east of the ALCAN Border late tonight. Flurries or light snow with
this feature.

A second weak short wave from Bettles to Minchumina will move to
Ft Yukon to Northway by 3am Mon and then move east of the ALCAN
Border Mon PM. Another area of flurries with this. Clouds should
decrease west of this feature Mon as the ridge aloft builds.

Surface...
A 1034 mb low 80 NM west of Cape Lisburne will move to 100 NM
northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1034 mb low by 4am Mon, to 120 NM
north of Barter Island as a 1031 mb low by 3pm Mon, and then
continue moving east. Isolated to scattered showers shower along
this low will move northeast with the low. SW winds gusting to 30
mph near this low will move northeast with the low on Mon.

A 995 mb low in the Bering Strait will move north and weaken
tonight. This is causing Isolated to scattered showers in the
Bering Strait that will diminish tonight. This is also causing SW
winds gusting to 30 mph in the Bering Strait that will taper off
tonight.

A 996 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will move northwest and
weaken tonight. This is causing easterly Gales southwest of St
Lawrence Is tonight. This will also bring light snow to the
southern YK Delta tonight.

A strong low moving into the Southwest Bering Sea tonight will
move to near Wrangel Is as a 1012 mb low by 3pm Tue, and to 60 NM
north of Utqiagvik as a 1007 mb low by 3pm Wed. A warm front
associated with this will move to Point Lay to the Bering Strait
by 3pm Tue, and weakening from Deadhorse to Denali by 3am Wed. A
trailing cold front will move along the Dateline Tue night and to
Deadhorse to Denali by 3pm Wed. Expect 4-8 inches of snow over NW
Alaska Tue PM into Wed PM with a chance of blizzard conditions
along the Coast from the Bering Strait to Utqiagvik. The heaviest
snow and strongest winds expected near Point Hope Tue night.
Significant snow amounts possible Wed into Thu Interior areas and
Eastern North Slope, but less certain at this time. Temperatures
will warm up dramatically with the front/snow.

A trailing storm moving into the West Coast Thu and Fri could
bring rain and snow and a chance of freezing rain Thu into Fri,
with heavy snow possible Fri night and Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models verify well aloft and show similar solutions aloft
through Tue. By 3am Wed, there is a difference in the timing of a
short wave trough moving east over the West Coast of Alaska with
the ECMWF slower than other models. At this time, the ECMWF is
slower than all other models on this feature, so will use a blend
of the NAM/GFS and Canadian for features aloft through Wed.

With precipitation, models show similar precip patterns through
Tue, with the GFS bringing precip east over Alaska more quickly on
Tue night and Wed. Given the faster eastward movement of the
short wave on Tue night and Wed, favor the faster GFS solution
for precip. So for precip will use a blend of the NAM and GFS
through Tue, with the caveats being that light snow will call over
the extreme SW Interior tonight, flurries will linger over the
Eastern Interior through tonight, with isolated to scattered snow
showers through tonight over the Bering Strait and Arctic Coast
from Utqiagvik west. Expect 4-8 inches of snow over NW Alaska Tue
PM into Wed with blizzard conditions possible. The heaviest snow
and strongest winds expected near Point Hope.

At the surface at 15Z, models verify well on features over
Alaska, but all models verify 3 mb too weak on the low in the
Central Bering Sea. Models show similar solutions at the surface
through 4pm Tue, with the GFS bringing the surface front east
across Alaska more quickly Tue night and Wed. Favor the faster GFS
solution at the surface as we did the GFS aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ201-230.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&