Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
503 AM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet conditions across northern Alaska this morning, with
the headlines being the continued well below temperatures where
skies are clear across the Interior along with snow and blowing
snow issues along the eastern Arctic Coast. These cold
temperatures are expected to persist into the middle of the week
as high pressure dominates across the area. Increasing east winds
in the Interior will lead to the potential for blowing snow
issues along highway summits beginning tonight and lasting into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Ridging cutting northwest to southeast across the West Coast
continues this morning. This pattern is causing colder air to
filter into the Interior due to the northerly flow. This ridging
feature will persist into the middle of the week, keeping mostly
snow free conditions across northern Alaska.

This ridge will eventually be undercut by troughing on the west
side of the ridge, located over the Bering Sea on Tuesday. This
change in pattern will allow a couple of surface weather fronts to
reach the southern portions of the forecast area along the Alaska
Range to the West Coast beginning on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then consist of ridging over the
Chukchi Sea, troughing over northern Alaska, and remnant ridging
across the Gulf of Alaska going into Thursday. By then, a strong
shortwave trough moving from the northern Pacific to the Gulf of
Alaska will weaken the ridging in this region going into Friday.
The overall large scale features remain in good agreement through
Friday, with this developing trough resulting in a snowy pattern
across the forecast area going into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temperatures have dipped into the 30s and 40s below zero in valley
areas of the Interior this morning. Expect similar conditions tonight
before temperatures slowly warm beginning Tuesday, but still
remaining below average going into late week. High pressure will
dominate across the Interior for most of the week. This pattern
will result in east winds developing late tonight, with blowing
snow issues for higher elevations along highway summits lasting
into Wednesday. The Tanana Valley Jet will also develop, with
winds gusting to 40 mph through areas such as Delta Junction
during this time period. The weather pattern begins to transition
during the middle of the week, with chances for snow along the
Alaska Range Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, snow isn't
expected to push into the Fairbanks area until at least Friday
based on the latest guidance.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow and blowing snow issues continue for the eastern Arctic
Coast, with occasional blizzard conditions for places like Point
Thompson and Kaktovik this morning. These conditions are expected
to improve throughout the morning as the west winds begin to
dissipate. An Arctic front continues to lie along the Arctic Coast,
resulting in light snow from Utqiagvik east that will persist
through this evening. Midlevel clouds across most of the North
Slope continue to keep temperatures warmer than the Interior, in
the 10s to 20s below zero. These clouds are expected to dissipate
tonight as the Arctic front weakens, resulting in a cooling trend
to the 20s and 30s below zero for lows by the middle of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Offshore flow will strengthen today as a strong low pressure moves
across the central and western Bering Sea. These strong east winds
of 30 to 50 mph expected to last through the middle of the week as
a series of low pressures track northwestward from the northern
Pacific through the Bering Sea. These series of lows will also
bring chances for snow in the southern portions of the West Coast
and Western Interior today and then again on Tuesday night. The
front on Tuesday night will bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to the
Yukon Delta and the Lower Yukon Valleys. Temperatures are expected
to warm to above normal through the middle of the week as these
series of lows push warmer air northward across the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Warmer temperatures look to move in across the Interior, with
a snowier pattern starting as early as Friday and lasting through
the weekend. However, there are no concerns about a well organized
winter storm that would cause widespread impacts at this point.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

JAN 22