Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

051 
WWAK59 PAFG 060449
SVSAFG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
849 PM AKDT Tue Jul 5 2022

AKC290-060459-
/O.CAN.PAFG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220706T0500Z/
Yukon-Koyukuk-
849 PM AKDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN YUKON-KOYUKUK IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 6624 14736 6603 14744 6603 14781 6625 14795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 148DEG 9KT 6610 14767 

$$

JRA

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
134 PM AKDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms and smoky conditions will prevail
across the Interior the next couple days. Visibility will be poor
at times in the smoke. A front moving to the West Coast will bring
some cooler temperatures and showers to the area tonight before
it slides southeast and dissipates. A weather front moving across
the Arctic will move to the Northwest Coast, then move northeast
across the Arctic as it weakens and high pressure pushes west over
the coast. Temperatures in the Interior will remain warm with
highs in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...05/12Z solutions in good agreement for the short term
and the extended periods as they are all trending in the same
direction with only minor differences in the location of major
features. Convective potential continues to be good across the
area, but it will shift to the east a little today and Wednesday,
then shift back and northwest for Thursday. Biggest concern is
lightning and very dry fuels. Broad area of negative lifted
indicies east of Galena extending from south of the Alaska Range
to the Arctic Plain, with CAPE values ranging up to 2500 J/kg.
Will mainly use a blend of solutions to get a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms across the Interior and that will also
produce cooler temperatures and showers for the West Coast.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues over the eastern half of
the state with a 573 dam high over Dawson YT. A weak trough over
the southeast Arctic is working its way over the ridge, while the
long wave trough has moved to the Dateline with a 548 dam low over
the Central Bering Sea. A trough that moved over the southwestern
areas yesterday lies from the southern Chukchi Sea over Kaltag to
a 565 dam low just east of Kodiak City. By Wednesday afternoon
the ridging will continue to hold with a 572 dam high over the
Yukon/Northwest Territories border with the ridge axis pushing
west over Eagle to Deering. A weak trough will be moving northeast
over the central Arctic, while the long wave trough will slide
just east of the Dateline with the low 150 nm southwest of St
matthew Island at 546 dam. A trough rotating around the low will
move over Bristol Bay as it starts to merge with the stalled
trough over the southwest mainland. Thursday afternoon the ridging
will weaken and slide north with a 571 dam high over the
northwest corner of the Northwest Territories and the ridge axis
extending west over the Arctic Plain to Cape Lisburne. The low
over the Bering Sea will move southeast over Chignik at 543 dam,
while a trough will move over the Alaska Range. Troughing will
persist over the Dateline north of the Chukotsk Peninsula. At 850
hpa...+10C isotherm lies from Utqiagvik to Homer with temperatures
approaching +20C along the AlCan Border, while temperatures over
the West Coast are around +2C. Not much change through Wednesday,
but Thursday the +10C isotherm will lie from Utqiagvik to Ambler
to Talkeetna then southeast as the ridge axis slides north.

Surface...Benign pressure  pattern over the Interior today with
the thermal trough lying from the AlCan Border Crossing to Point
Lay. A 1013 mb high is in the Upper Yukon Flats, and high pressure
has developed in the Western Interior with a 1015 mb high near
McGrath, and a 1015 mb high near Shaktoolik. A stacked 1005 mb low
in the Central Bering Sea is moving east with a weather front
moving inland across the southwest coast. By Wednesday afternoon
broad weak low pressure will extend from the Yukon Territory to
the Dateline with several weak lows across the forecast area. A
weather front will move into the Western Arctic as a 998 mb low
moves to 300 nm north of Utqiagvik. By Thursday afternoon the
thermal trough will mover to lie across the northeast corner of
the state east of Fort Yukon with weak low pressure north of the
Alaska Range. The front in the Arctic will pull northeast as it
moves to the Central Arctic, and high pressure will push in from
the east as a 1013 mb high moves west of Banks Island. The low in
the Bering Sea will move to St Matthew Island as low pressure
develops in the Lower Yukon Delta and Norton Sound.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Thunderstorms in the Brooks Range
and plains will continue, while a front will graze the northwest
coast as it moves northeast across the Arctic Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds variable, generally less than 15 mph. Temperatures
steady with highs from the upper 40s along the coast to the mid
70s inland. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Continued cloudy with showers
as a weather front moves to the area and dissipates. Thunderstorm
activity will decrease some this evening and tomorrow before
ramping back up a bit Thursday. Temperatures cooler from the
Middle Yukon west through Friday. Winds variable to 10 mph for
most areas. Temperatures a bit cooler with highs in the upper 40s
to 60s with the coldest temperatures on the Chukchi Sea coast and
warmest in the Lower Yukon Delta. Low temperatures will be in the
40s and 50s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Thunderstorms and showers in the
mid to late afternoon and evening will continue. Smoke will also
continue to be an issue as visibility will be reduced to less than
one mile at times. Thunderstorms will bring gusty winds, and small
hail to some areas as they move through. Not much change through
Friday. Winds generally variable to 10 mph except near
thunderstorms. High temperatures generally in the 70s with lows in
the 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft will persist
over the Interior, but a low moving to the south will bring
southeast flow into the Interior with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Troughing to the west will produce
cooler temperatures and showers along the coast Monday and Tuesday
while the inland areas will be slightly cooler with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms and showers. Not much change in the Arctic
with isolated thunderstorms in the Brooks Range and Plains, and
stratus and fog along the coast.

&&

.Fire Weather...Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for much of
Interior Alaska, for details go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire.

Thermal trough will continue to rotate to the northeast today
with the focus of activity along a line from the AlCan Border
Crossing to just east of Arctic Village. The thermal trough will
rotate back to the west Thursday producing increased activity in
the Western Interior.

Cooler temperatures in the west today will push most of the
activity east of a line from Utqiagvik to Ambler to Ruby to
McGrath.

With activity being pushed east expect 3000 to 5000 lightning
strokes this evening and overnight, with similar numbers expected
Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 70s to around 80,
while Relative Humidity values will range from 25 to 40 percent.

South winds through the Alaska Range may prompt or enhance Red
Flag conditions along the range Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...Glacial rivers draining the Alaska Range such as the
Tanana, Chisana, and Nabesna Rivers are running bankfull or near
bankfull and will remain elevated as high freezing levels are
creating high level snowmelt. Expect ground water in areas
adjacent to the rivers to continue to spread away from the rivers
as they run at these elevated levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-
AKZ227.

&&

SDB JUL 22