Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

955 
WWAK62 PAFG 110533
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
933 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ214-215-110645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220611T0600Z/
Yukon Delta-Lower Yukon Valley-
933 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND YUKON
DELTA...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
705 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level low dropping south from the Arctic will bring snow
to the Brooks Range above 2000 feet today and tonight with up to 3
inches expected near Atigun Pass. A thermal trough along the
Alaska Range will persist and allow north winds along the West
Coast and northeast winds in the Interior to continue through
Saturday. Shower coverage will increase in the central and eastern
Interior each day this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models and Analysis...The 10/06z model suite came in in generally
good agreement through Monday. Subtle differences include the GFS
stalling an upper level low tracking southwest from the Central
Beaufort Sea over Norton Sound while the NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian
bring the low out over the Bering Sea. As this happens, the ECMWF
has stronger ridging over the eastern Interior than the other
models. All models show isolated to scattered shower activity each
day in the Interior through Monday, though the GFS is much more
aggressive in coverage. Given good agreement and small model
differences, we will use a blend of models for this forecast
package.

Central and Eastern Interior...Locally heavy showers from Salcha
to Delta Junction this morning will taper off and become isolated
to scattered through the day today. There will be increased cloud
cover and a slight chance of a shower today in Fairbanks, though
isolated and scattered shower activity will largely remain east
of Fairbanks and along the Alaska Range. Tomorrow expect more of
the same with slightly increased coverage of showers especially
over the Fortymile Country. Isolated thunderstorms embedded in the
showers will also be possible from Livengood south to the Alaska
Range. Sunday will again feature isolated to scattered showers
with widely scattered thunderstorms southeast of Fairbanks near
the Tanana River and isolated thunderstorms from Tanana to the
Alcan Border and north to Bettles. High temperatures will be
mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s today, but will warm to the
mid 60s to near 70 by Sunday. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph are
expected again today and Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...An upper level low will drop south
from the Arctic today and bring light snow along with low stratus
and fog to the Arctic Coast. By this afternoon, expect mixed
precipitation across the Arctic Plain and all snow above 2000
feet in the Brooks Range. Around an inch of accumulation is
expected near Anaktuvuk Pass and up to 3 inches from Atigun Pass
to Toolik Field Station and east into the Romanzof Mountains
through tonight. For Saturday and Sunday expect some areas of
light mixed precipitation along the coast with fog and stratus and
continued onshore winds of 10 to 15 mph. High and low
temperatures along the coast will stay about the same through
Sunday, with a warming trend inland.

West Coast and Western Interior...The West Coast and Lower Yukon
will see a cooling trend through the weekend while temperatures
inland will remain pretty consistent. Winds will remain quite
strong, especially in the afternoon hours with sustained north
winds to 20 mph along the coast, through the Kobuk and Noatak
Valleys and the Yukon Delta. Cloud cover will increase over most
of the area on Sunday, with showers possible from eastern Norton
Sound inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...Models are far from in
agreement on specifics, but largely depict a more typical summertime
pattern forming over northern Alaska with weak ridging over the
central and eastern Interior and an upper level low over the
Bering Sea. As a result, we should expect near normal high
temperatures, along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms in
the Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures in the Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon
Delta will be cooler today than yesterday, but dry and windy
conditions will continue. Minimum relative humidities will
generally be in the 25-40% range from Huslia south to the Alaska
Range, in the Yukon Delta, and east to Fairbanks today and
Saturday. North and northeast winds will increase again this
afternoon and evening and again tomorrow, with the strongest winds
sustained to 20 mph along the West Coast and through Brooks Range
passes. Thunderstorms today will be very isolated southeast of
Northway. Tomorrow expect isolated thunderstorms throughout most
of the Interior east of Ruby and south of the Yukon Flats.
Thunderstorm activity on Sunday is expected to be isolated east of
Tanana, but widely scattered near the Tanana River east of
Fairbanks.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Yukon River from the Canadian border to Eagle
downstream to Circle will see water levels rising to near bankfull
by Sunday night. This is due to melting of a much above normal
snowpack in the high terrain of the Yukon Territory. Normally
exposed gravel bars between Eagle and Circle will be submerged due
to the high water, and people traveling on the river should be
prepared for an increased amount of debris flowing downstream, in
addition to the high water and faster current. Breakup continues
along the immediate coast of the eastern North Slope, with ice
jams possible.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

CHRIEST JUN 22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
550 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ224-101600-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan,
Chicken, and Boundary
550 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...Near Bankfull Water Levels On The Yukon River From Eagle To
Circle This Weekend And Early Next Week...

The Yukon River at Dawson, YT is very high and expected to rise
through the weekend. Downstream at Eagle, bankfull conditions are
expected by Sunday night. This water will continue downstream
early next week.

Normally exposed gravel bars between Eagle and Circle will be
submerged due to the high water, and people traveling on the river
should be prepared for an increased amount of debris flowing
downstream, in addition to the high water and faster current.

For more information, detailed river forecasts can be found at
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
614 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ206-111500-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon,
and Franklin Bluffs
614 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...Snow In The Brooks Range Through Tonight...

Up to 3 inches of snow is expected in the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range through tonight. Snow will melt soon after falling in
most areas below 2000 feet, but snow may accumulate in areas
above 2000 ft. This includes the Dalton Highway near Atigun Pass,
and the village of Anaktuvuk Pass. Snow is expected to taper off
during the day Saturday. Motorists and hikers venturing into the
Brooks Range above 2000 feet should prepare for snow today and
tonight.

A cold front pushing south over the Brooks Range is bringing the
snow and cold temperatures, along with north winds gusting to 25
mph. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range will
remain in the lower 30s today and fall into the 20s tonight.

Motorists and hikers venturing into the Brooks Range above 2000
feet should prepare for snow today and tonight.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
640 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ224-110100-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan,
Chicken, and Boundary
640 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...Near Bankfull Water Levels On The Yukon River From Eagle To
Circle This Weekend And Early Next Week...

The Yukon River at Dawson, YT is very high and expected to rise
through the weekend. Downstream at Eagle, bankfull conditions are
expected by Sunday night. This water will continue downstream
early next week.

Normally exposed gravel bars between Eagle and Circle will be
submerged due to the high water, and people traveling on the river
should be prepared for an increased amount of debris flowing
downstream, in addition to the high water and faster current.

For more information, detailed river forecasts can be found at
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

JC