Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

835 
WWAK63 PAFG 011038
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 AM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Red Flag Warning Wed PM north of the Chatanika River...

Northern Alaska will remain mainly warmer than normal and dry
through the week. Red Flag conditions are expected this afternoon
in Zones 220, 221 North of the Tanana River, and 222 north of the
Chatanika River when west winds of 15 to 20 mph combined with
low RH values and temperatures in the mid to upper 70 will combine
to cause Red Flag Warning conditions in those areas. Areas
south of the Chatanika river and Tanana River will have lower
wind speeds but will be hot and dry.

AKZ220-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.220601T2000Z-220602T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
238 AM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands

* TIMING...Wednesday from Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...63 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ221-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.220601T2000Z-220602T0600Z/
Central Interior-
238 AM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* AFFECTED AREA...North of the Tanana River.

* TIMING...Wednesday from Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...66 to 76.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.220601T2000Z-220602T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
238 AM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...North of the Chatanika River.

* TIMING...Wednesday from Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...63 to 76.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

990 
WWAK63 PAFG 012348
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Red Flag Warning Wed PM north of the Chatanika River...

Northern Alaska will remain mainly warmer than normal and dry
through the week. Red Flag conditions will occur through 10 PM 
tonight in Zones 220, 221 North of the Tanana River, and 222 north 
of the Chatanika River with west winds of 15 to 20 mph combined with 
RH 15-25% and temperatures near 80. Areas south of the Chatanika 
River and Tanana River will have slightly less wind speed,
but will be hot and dry.

AKZ220-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220602T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
348 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands

* TIMING...From Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 82.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ221-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220602T0600Z/
Central Interior-
348 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR...

* AFFECTED AREA...North of the Tanana River.

* TIMING...From Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 81.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

AKZ222-020600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220602T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
348 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...North of the Chatanika River.

* TIMING...From Noon to 10 PM.

* WINDS...West 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

721 
WWAK63 PAFG 020529
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
929 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

AKZ220>222-020630-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220602T0600Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-
929 PM AKDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING
UPLANDS...CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKDT Tue May 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska will remain mainly warmer than normal and dry
through the week, with isolated thunderstorms. The exception is an
upper level feature over Southwest Alaska that will move over
Northwest Alaska tonight, over the Central Brooks Range on Wed,
and over Northeast Alaska Wed night and Thu. An area of scattered
to widespread showers and cooler temperatures will accompany this
feature.

Temperatures will cool slightly and chances of thunderstorms will
increase towards the end of this week and over the weekend.

Expect a warming and drying trend next week.

Aloft...The strong ridge over Interior Alaska will weaken
slightly late this week, then rebuild next week. This will usher
in slightly cooler temperatures with higher chances of
thunderstorms later this week, with a warming and drying trend
next week.

850 MB temps will be 1-2C warmer today than Mon. Will see
temperatures cooler 2-4C over Western Alaska Wed, and over the
rest of Northern Alaska on Thu.

Surface....
A weak thermal low pressure trough that lies from the Koyuk to
Tanana to Eagle will move to Bettles to Arctic Village to Northway
on Wed, to Ft Yukon to Northway and mcgrath to Northway on Thu,
and to McGrath to Eagle on Fri. Expect Isolated PM thunderstorms
near the thermal trough over the Interior today, Wed, Thu and Fri
with the number of thunderstorms increasing slightly through the
week.

A 1009 mb low 200 NM northwest of Utqiagvik will move to 200 NM
north of Utqiagvik as a 1009 mb low by 4pm Wed, and to 250 NM
north of Demarcation Point as a 1012 mb low by 4pm Thu, and to
Banks Island as a 1014 mb low by 4pm Fri. An associated cold front
over the Chukchi Sea will move to Utqiagvik to POint Hope by 4am
Wed, to Barter island to Anaktuvuk to POint Hope by 4pm Wed, to
Inuvik to Anaktuvuk to Point Lay by 4am Thu, to Inuvik to Arctic
Village to Wainwright by 4pm Thu, and to Old Crow to Wainwright by
4pm Sat. There is a warm front that will move across the North
Slope east ahead of the cold front tonight and Wed. Expect
offshore winds, partly cloudy skies and warming temps along the
North Slope tonight and Wed ahead of the cold front. With the cold
front expect SW winds 15-20kt along with rain and fog. Behind the
cold front expect west winds 20 kt along with fog and flurries,
with winds diminishing Thu, then turning east and on Fri, and
increasing on Sat.

High pressure over the Northern Bering Sea will build over the
West Coast of AK Wed and persist into Fri, then weaken on Sat.
This will cause onshore flow with stratus and fog tonight through
Thu, with fog thinning Fri into Sat as flow turns more Northerly
and offshore for many areas. Could see dense fog along West Capes
tonight, punching into remainder of West Coast on Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z, and show similar solutions
through Fri with the exception that the ECMWF maintains higher
heights over Interior Alaska on Thu and Fri than the NAM,GFS and
Canadian Models. At this time favor the NAM/GFS and ECMWF
solutions aloft through Fri. Models show same general pattern for
next week, but differ on location and strength of short waves.

Models show similar patterns and amounts for precipitation through
Fri. Will use a blend of models for precip coverage with the
several additions. The area over showers over SW Alaska will move
over NW Alaska tonight with scattered to widespread showers, which
will move to the Central Brooks Range Wed, and to NE Alaska Wed
night and Thu. Expect Isolated PM thunderstorms along the thermal
trough over the Interior today, Wed, Thu and Fri.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify well on most features, but
all initialize 4 mb too weak on the low in the Chukchi Sea. Models
show similar surface solution through Fri. The NAM appears to
keep the low north of the Arctic Coast deeper than other models
and show stronger winds, so the NAM is preferred at the surface,
But will bump up winds 3 kt over North Slope tonight and Wed to
reflect the deeper than forecast low.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Northern Alaska will remain mainly warmer than normal and dry
through the week, with isolated thunderstorms.
Near Red Flag conditions are expected over the Eastern Interior
today and Wed with RH 15-25% and temperatures in the 70s. Winds
will remain less than 15 mph most areas except that afternoon/evenings
will see local gusts of 15-20 MPH. Isolated thunderstorms could
produce localized gusts to 25 mph. Zones 220 and 221 can expect
West winds 15 mph Wed PM so will likely issues Red Flag Warnings
for those zones, and highlight near Red flag conditions other
zones south and east of those.

An upper level feature over Southwest Alaska that will move over
Northwest Alaska tonight, over the Central Brooks Range on Wed,
and over Northeast Alaska Wed night and Thu. An area of scattered
to widespread showers and cooler temperatures will accompany this
feature.

Temperatures will cool slightly and chances of thunderstorms will
increase towards the end of this week and over the weekend.

Expect a warming and drying trend next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Interior and West Coast rivers will remain high the next several
days and then fall towards the end of the week as snowpack shrinks
and temperatures drop slightly.

Break up on the North Slope is underway.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAY 22