Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

666 
WWAK62 PAFG 262311
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

......RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 216 FROM
NOON TO 10 PM TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft building over the West Coast and Interior of 
Alaska through Sat will persist into next week. This will cause 
a warming trend through the weekend over Interior Alaska, with
warm conditions continuing next week. Highs in the 60s and lower 
70s will continue over the Interior today and Fri, rising into 
the 70s over the weekend and remaining warm into next week. The 
current dry conditions with Min RH of 15-30% will remain through 
Fri, with a slight increase in moisture over the weekend as 
evaporating moisture builds up under the subsidence inversion
associated with the high aloft.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Glennallen to 
Northway to Ft Yukon to Buckland will intensify today, then weaken
in place tonight and remain weak through Sat. This is causing 
west winds 15 mph gusting to 30 mph along the Yukon River this
afternoon and evening, with winds decreasing late tonight as the 
trough weakens. Given the dry fuels and warm, dry conditions, 
these winds will cause Red Flag conditions in zone 216 through 
10 PM today. The winds will decrease late tonight as the temps cool 
and the thermal trough weakens, and remain less than 15 mph 
through the weekend.


AKZ216-270600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220527T0600Z/
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
311 PM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys.

* TIMING...Noon to 10 PM today.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...58 to 73.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

442 
WWAK62 PAFG 270533
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
933 PM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

AKZ216-270645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220527T0600Z/
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
933 PM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEYS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
424 AM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Across the Interior today, many places will see highs climb into
the lower 70s with west winds bumping up this afternoon through
this evening, gusting 15 to 20 mph. Cooler conditions hold on
along the coast, where the West Coast will see highs topping out
in the lower to mid 40s and lower 30s for the Arctic Coast. A weak
front will slide east across the North Slope today, bringing
cloudy skies and increased chances of precipitation. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening across
the Upper Tanana Valley, primarily east of Tok.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern at 500 hpa consists of an upper level ridge
across the Bering stretching east to the Eastern Interior,
centered around a 558 decameter (dam) high west of Scammon Bay,
while a trough digs south into the North Slope from a 506 dam low
over the High Arctic. Over the next several days, ridging will
continue to build and dominate weather conditions across much of
the Interior, south of the Brooks Range, keeping most locations
dry and warm. While along the North Slope, a weak shortwave slides
east across the region today into tonight with additional weak
energy Friday, keeping chances of precipitation in the forecast.
The thunderstorm threat will be confined primarily east and
southeast of Tok this afternoon into this evening and again
Friday.

Model Discussion...
The models are in general good agreement on the evolution of
features on the synoptic scale over the next several days, with a
consensus of a ridge across much of the Mainland, south of the
Brooks Range, while weak troughing holds on across the Arctic
today into Saturday. For this morning's forecast package, we went
with a general blend of model solutions, making minor changes to
the inherited grids.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak weather front will dive south and slide east across the
region today into tonight; bringing increased westerly winds 10
to 20 mph, cloudy skies, and chances of liquid precipitation. Snow
chances, with no accumulations expected, will primarily be
confined to immediate coast. Additional weak energy will bring
another round of precipitation Friday. High temperatures today
into Saturday will climb into the lower to mid 30s along the
Arctic Coast and into the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s across the
Arctic Plain.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet conditions are in store today through Saturday as high
pressure builds across the region. Low ceilings and fog will be
prevalent over the Bering and may impact portions of the West
Coast over the next several nights/mornings, from the Bering
Strait south to the Yukon Delta. Otherwise, skies will remain
clear across the Western Interior into Saturday. The strongest
winds will occur through the Bering Strait, with southwesterly
winds 15 to 25 mph today through Friday. High temperatures today
into the weekend will top out in the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s
along the immediate coast, while highs climb into the mid to upper
60s to lower 70s across the Western Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Some clouds will hold on across the Central and Eastern Interior
for most of today, expect decreasing cloudiness this afternoon
heading into the weekend as high pressure builds. Westerly winds
will bump up this afternoon into the early evening hours across
the Central Interior, gusting 15 to 20 mph, easing by Friday. High
temperatures today in the mid 60s to low 70s with lows dipping
down into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Gradual warming heading into the
weekend, with high climbing into the mid 70s for many locations
and lows in the mid 40s. Isolated thunderstorm activity will be
minimal this afternoon and again Friday, confined to the Upper
Tanana Valley, primarily east and southeast of Tok.

Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period Sunday, model solutions have upper
level ridging dominating across the Mainland, south of the Brooks
Range, while troughing hangs on over the Arctic. This will
continue through most of the extended period, bringing continued
warm and dry conditions to much of the Interior and chances of
precipitation confined to the North Slope. Model solutions on the
tail end of the extended period show a possible change in the
synoptic pattern, with an active weather pattern returning to
most of Northern Alaska. Stay tuned to the forecast for continued
updates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The West Coast east into the Interior will warm and remain dry
under high pressure as it builds aloft through the weekend.
Highs topping out in the 60s to lower 70s today, climbing into the
mid 70s for many Interior locations over the weekend. Dry
conditions south of the Brooks Range will continue today through
Saturday, with many locations across the Western and Central
Interior seeing minimum RH values bottoming out to the mid to
lower 20s. West winds gusting 15 to 20 mph this afternoon into the
evening will ease Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and again Friday, confined to the Upper Tanana
Valley, primarily east and southeast of Tok.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Advisory continues for the Innoko River near Shageluk,
where flooding of some roads continues. Temperatures warming into
the weekend, along with rising freezing levels, this will
accelerate the high elevation snowmelt. With most rivers and
streams now open, expect the rivers to remain at elevated levels
for the remainder of the week, with many rivers likely rising over
the weekend. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

RZ MAY 22