Gale Warning 93, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
506 AM AKDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure over the West Coast and Arctic
Coast with a mix of clouds and isolated showers, while weak high
pressure will be over the inland areas with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Decreasing chance of showers tonight with some
clearing in the coastal areas. Temperatures will be warming.
Strong storm moving to the West Coast Wednesday night through
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...04/00Z solutions continue to show good run to run
continuity, and they continue to come together. GFS has been more
consistent than other solutions so we will continue to lean on it
a the primary through the midterm. Only making minor adjustments
again today as we tweak the forecast to capture the higher winds
and areas that will get heavier precipitation.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...High moving east over the Arctic has moved
has moved over Pelly Island NWT at 552 dam. Troughing extends east
over Cape lisburne to a 547 dam low over Graphite Lake in the
Upper Porcupine Valley. Ridging extends northwest over the
Southeast Panhandle to Gambell. Troughing to the west has moved
over the Gulf of Anadyr extending southeast to a 528 dam low just
south of Unimak Island. Ridging is pushing north over the Western
Bering Sea. Wednesday afternoon the low over Graphite Lake will
be over the MacKenzie Delta at 550 dam with troughing extending
northwest over the Arctic. Ridging over the state will slide north
with the axis from the AlCan Border Crossing to Fairbanks, then
southwest over Bethel. Troughing to the west will move to lie over
the Western Chukchi Sea to Savoonga to the 527 dam low 250 nm
south of Sand Point. Ridging over the Western Bering Sea will move
over the Dateline. Wednesday morning ridging over the Yukon
Territory will extend north over the Eastern Arctic, with another
axis extending over Eagle to Bethel, then southwest over Adak.
Troughing will move over the Western Arctic and West Coast from
Point Lay to Bethel, while the low south of Sand Point will
continue southeast to 600 nm south of Kodiak Island. A 505 dam low
over the Sea of Ohkotsk will move northeast over Magadan.
Wednesday afternoon the trough that was over the West Coast will
be over the Eastern Arctic and AlCan Border north of the Porcupine
River. Ridging will persist from the Upper Tanana Valley to
Bethel the southwest to Adak, with weak ridging extending from the
Middle Yukon Valley north west over the Dateline. The low near
Magadan will move to 250 nm northeast of Magadan at 502 dam. A
strong shortwave associated with the low will move near the
Dateline over the Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is sliding
north with temperatures warming to just above 0C for most of the
area through Tuesday.

Surface...The high near Banks Island is moving into the Northwest
Territories at 1031 mb with high pressure pushing west into the
Central and Eastern Interior to the Middle Yukon Valley, and
across the offshore waters into the Central Arctic. The low that
was near Dutch Harbor is 100 nm south of Unimak Island at 993 mb
with low pressure extending north to a 1010 mb low near Point
Hope, then along the Arctic Coast to Demarcation Point. Weak
leeside troughing is north of the Alaska Range with a 1016 mb low
near Anderson. High pressure over the Dateline extends north to
Wrangel Island. This afternoon the low pressure south of the
Alaska Peninsula will move east along 55N to 150W. High pressure
over the Central and Eastern Interior continues to push west to
the Middle Yukon Valley with a 1022 mb high near Arctic Village.
Weak troughing remains over the West Coast with a 1014 mb low in
Norton Sound, and a 1014 mb low in Kotzebue Sound. High pressure
to the west will lie from Wrangel Island south over the Chukotsk
Peninsula to ST Matthew Island to Adak. A strong 975 mb low will
move to 100 nm northeast of Magadan with a front moving over the
Kamchatka Peninsula. Weak low pressure is over the Arctic with a
1012 mb low 200 nm north of Utqiagvik. By Wednesday morning weak
low pressure will remain across the Arctic with weak high pressure
pushing west between the ranges to the southern Chukchi Sea, then
south to Atka. Low pressure will push northeast across the Gulf
of Alaska from a low south of Kodiak Island. The strong low near
Magadan will move to Northern Kamchatka at 978 mb with a front
moving into the Western Bering Sea.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Increasing clouds with a chance of
showers today, then cloudy. Winds turning offshore through the
day. Winds along the coast mainly from the east at 10 to 25 mph
will turn more from the south. Inland winds south 5 to 15 mph.
High temperatures today and Wednesday mainly in the 30s. Low
temperatures tonight in the 20s to around 30.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers along the coast
tapering off as the low pressure weakens and moves inland. A mix
of cloudy by afternoon through Wednesday. Winds mainly east at 5
to 15 mph this morning becoming variable to 10 mph. High
temperatures today and Wednesday in the 40s to lower 50s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 30s to around 40.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly cloudy, becoming mostly
cloudy north of the Yukon River. Winds variable to 8 mph today
except south winds to 35 mph near the Alaska Range passes this
morning. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from the
30s north of the Yukon River to around 50 in the Upper Tanana
Valley. Low temperatures tonight in the 20s to mid 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...See current Warnings,
Watches, and Advisories for the latest information. A strong low
moving across Chukotka to Wrangel Island by Thursday morning will
bring strong south to southwesterly gales to near storm force
winds to Norton Sound, the Chukchi Sea, and Western Arctic.
There continues to be elevated potential for coastal flooding and
high surf south of the Bering Strait.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Decaying front will move
across the state spreading showers to much of the Interior. A
Strong push of cold air into the state coming around the low
moving into the Arctic will bring increased chance of the
precipitation being snow starting Sunday night. Temperatures
cooler.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ201.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ201-207-209.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ202.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ213.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ205-208.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ207.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

SDB SEP 22