Gale Warning 66, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Early fall storm on the West Coast continues to bring strong
winds, heavy rains and elevated water levels along the coast and
gusty winds and heavy rain over the Western Interior. High Surf
Advisories in the YK Delta and Eastern Norton Sound have been
upgraded to Coastal Flood Advisories and a High Wind Warning has
been issued for Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills for this
evening into tomorrow as latest observations continue to over
achieve with this low pressure system. Winds in the Alaska Range
continue to increase with 70+ mph wind gusts noted at windiest
locations and 50+ mph gusts common along the northern foothills
of the Alaska Range. Gusty winds continue over much of the
Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A deep upper trough now extends from the Chukchi Sea down to the
Bristol Bay region remain in place while a 535 dam low currently
over Norton Sound pushes north over the Seward Peninsula and
Kotzebue Sound tonight and into the Southern Chukchi Sea Tuesday.
The surface low is currently around 988 mb over Norton Sound
continues to lift to the north and will begin to fill slowly late
tonight and into Tuesday over Kotzebue Sound and the Southern
Kotzebue Sound. Very strong West to southwest winds on the
southern portion of the low i.e. the "poison tail" is expected to
push inland tonight over Eastern Norton Sound with southwest
winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph expected along the coast.
A High Wind Warning has been issued for this area. A 8 to 10 mb
pressure gradient exists across the Alaska Range and in
combination with a mountain wave aloft continues to produce
hurricane force winds gusts. These winds are expected to diminish
later this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. Heavy rain
along and behind a strong front over the Western Interior will
continue to push east tonight moving into the Central late tonight
and tomorrow and Eastern Interior tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Model Discussion...
The 25/12z model suite initialized well on position of the Bering
Sea Low but however the low continues to be a couple mb deeper and
is slower to bottom out and will likely be slower to weaken than
given model suite. We winds were increased a few mph in the
latest forecast package accordingly. Given the strength of the
front it seems likely some precip will continue to push east
into the eastern Interior by tomorrow night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South winds in the AK Range continue to increase and are gusting
into the 70+ mph range in the windiest locations and 50+ mph along
the northern foothills of the Alaska Range. Gusts in the 20 to 30
mph continue over higher terrain over much of the Southern
Interior this afternoon. The gusty winds will diminish later this
evening. Strong down slope warming pushed temperatures well into
the 70s despite more clouds and humidity this afternoon. The cold
front rapidly advances east from late this afternoon through
tonight, with steady rain along it from the Upper Koyukuk Valley
south. More showery and intermittent light rain will fall farther
eastward where there will be some aspect of downslope shadowing.

West coast and Western Interior...
Heavy rain, strong winds and elevated water levels will continue
tonight and Tuesday along the West Coast. Heavy rain and gusty
winds will also continue tonight in the Western Interior as a
strong front pushed into the Central Interior. West winds behind
the front will bring a cool, and blustery and showery day with
temps struggling to reach 60 Tuesday afternoon. Temps moderate
back into the 60s as drying and gradual clearing occurs Wednesday
and Thursday. Expect heavy rain to continue lifting north tonight
with strong gale force winds as the dynamic low moves north
through Norton Sound this afternoon, over the Seward Peninsula and
Kotzebue Sound tonight and into the Southern Chukchi Sea on
Tuesday. Very strong winds are expected as the "Poison Tail" wraps
around the low moving north out of Norton Sound this evening. A
High Wind Warning has been issued for Eastern Norton Sound and the
Nulato hills where wind gusts to 65 mph are expected to develop
this evening and continue into Tuesday morning. The High Surf
Advisories in the Lower YK Delta and Eastern Norton Sound have
been upgraded to Coastal Flood Advisories as latest guidance bring
3 to 4 feet of surge into the Lower YK Delta and 6 to 8 feet of
surge above normal high tide level to Eastern Norton Sound
tonight and Tuesday. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the
Northern Seward Peninsula west of Cape Espenberg including
Shishmaref and Kotzebue Sound including Kotzebue beginning late
tonight and continuing into Wednesday as strong southwest and
west winds develop in these areas as the low moves northwest into
the Southern Chukchi Sea. Expect heavy rain to continue over the
Western Interior Tuesday and the Western Brooks Range into Tuesday
night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Heavy rain continues to move across the Western Arctic this
afternoon and will continue tonight. The heavy rain shifts east
Tuesday. Winds peak everywhere from the coast to Brooks Range
this afternoon with the gradient slackening Tuesday. Expect south
winds into the 35 to 50 mph range through the Brooks Range gaps
later today Monday and Tuesday. Rain will likely continue on and
off along the Arctic Coast through Wednesday as a secondary low
forms in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay/Point Barrow. The North Slope
will remain rather rainy for the next several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Updated High Surf Advisories in previous forecast package to
reflect latest observations and guidance with Coastal Flood
Advisories for 3 to 4 feet of surge plus wave run up in the Lower
YK Delta as well as 6 to 8 feet of surge plus wave run up for
Eastern Norton Sound. Issued High Surf Advisories for zone 207
mainly west of Cape Espenberg including Shishmaref and zone 209
for Kotzebue sound including Kotzebue as strong west winds push
surf into northwest and west facing coastlines late tonight and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon as temps push into the
70s despite increased RH levels and clouds. Gusty south winds
over the interior will diminish tonight as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Strong wind through the Alaska Range Passes and the
northern foothills of the Alaska Range will diminish later tonight
as the pressure gradient diminishes. Relatively warm dry and
breezy conditions will give way to substantially cooler temps and
blustery weather on Tuesday as a strong front blasts eastward
through the Interior. Wetting rains are likely west of Tanana with
wetting rains more limited in the Eastern Interior, especially
east of Fairbanks, however the cool and damp weather will push
into the eastern Interior. These cooler and more damp conditions
with temps well below average continue through Wednesday before
temperatures slowly moderate Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1-2" of rainfall over a widespread area out west will result in
rising river levels, including along the Wulik, Noatak and Kobuk,
and Koyukuk River, later this week. No flooding is anticipated,
however, as this amount of rainfall is not particularly significant
in terms of return periods. Expect the highest rises along the
Wulik, Noatak, and Kobuk Rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ214.

High Wind Warning for AKZ212.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUL 22