Gale Warning 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1230 AM AKDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The West Coast storm is finally moving inland as the rain shield
is moving into Norton Sound and the YK Delta this morning. No
changes in thinking as this strong early season storm will batter
the West Coast with rain, winds, and elevated surf. It will lift
north today with the cold front quickly moving east tonight.
Strong southerly chinook winds in the AK Range have already
started and will peak today. Expect windy conditions for the
Interior today, with blustery and much cooler weather Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A deep upper trough now extends from the Chukchi Sea down to the
Bristol Bay region. A strong basal shortwave diabatic low has
merged with the northern stream trough, making one large upper
trough with a dynamic low at the base. The surface low is lifting
northeast and strengthening as it moves toward Nunivak Island, at
around 987 mb. A moderate lee trough has already formed downwind
of the AK Range and south chinook winds have already commenced as
the mid level gradient tightens rapidly in advance of the Bering
low. A strong subtropical warm front persists over the Gulf of
Alaska.

Model Discussion...
Models are in excellent agreement now and there is little
discrepancy as they are all initializing the Bering low very well.
The main differences continue to revolve around precipitation
downwind of the AK Range as south flow turns more southwest
tomorrow evening. Global models remain wetter over the Central
Interior while the NAM and Canadian are the driest. We continue
to favor drier models but we do include chances for rain/showers.
Given the strength of the front it seems likely some precip will
fall even over the Eastern Interior by tomorrow night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South winds in the AK Range have already begun and are gusting
into the 50+ mph range in the Windy Pass area and Isabel Pass
area. Gusts to 35+ mph are pushing through Delta Junction. No
change in forecast thinking as high temps today will likely push
into the upper 70s over the Eastern Interior, with still warm but
slightly cooler temps farther west owing to cloud cover. The cold
front rapidly advances east from late this afternoon through
tonight, with steady rain along it from the Upper Koyukuk Valley
south. More showery and intermittent light rain will fall farther
eastward where there will be some aspect of downslope shadowing.

West winds blast through Tuesday and it will a cool and blustery
and showery day with temps struggling into the 60s. Temps moderate
back into the 60s as drying and gradual clearing occurs Wednesday
and Thursday. Expect heavy rain to continue lifting north today
with strong gale force winds as the dynamic low moves north
through Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound. Expect 35 to 55 mph wind
gusts from Saint Lawrence Island to the Norton Sound coast, YK
Delta, and the Bering Strait. South winds will also be strong into
the 30-45 mph range over the Interior today and early Tuesday.
This is a "fallish" storm, and there will also be some high surf
across Norton Sound and along the YK Delta. Showers and strong
west winds persist through Tuesday as the strong low slowly
weakens with winds completely dropping off by Wednesday with most
areas drying out.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Heavy rain will move across the Western Arctic today and tonight
and shifts east Tuesday. Winds peak everywhere from the coast to
Brooks Range Monday with the gradient slackening Tuesday. Expect
south winds into the 35 to 50 mph range through the Brooks Range
gaps later today Monday and Tuesday. Rain will likely continue on
and off along the Arctic Coast through Wednesday as a secondary
low forms in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay/Point Barrow. For the
northern latitudes the next several days will be rather "rainy".

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No change in thinking with regard to current hazards with 3-6
feet of elevated surf expected in Norton Sound and 3-4 feet along
the YK Delta coast as the low shifts from Norton Sound to Kotzebue
Sound later today and Tuesday. See current high surf advisories
for more details.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Even warmer today but with more clouds, as temps shoot into the
upper 70s over the Eastern Interior. It will also be rather gusty
as south winds increase across the Interior, 15-25 mph, with 20-30
mph near the AK Range. Min RH values will fall into the lower 30s
in windiest areas. These near red flag conditions this afternoon
quickly give way to substantially cooler temps and blustery
weather on Tuesday as the front blasts eastward. Wetting rains
will not make it into the Eastern Interior, but the cool and damp
weather will. These cooler and more damp conditions with temps
well below average continue through Wednesday before it slowly
moderates Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1-2" of rainfall over a widespread area out west will result in
rising river levels, including along the Wulik, Noatak and Kobuk,
and Koyukuk River, later this week. No flooding is anticipated,
however, as this amount of rainfall is not particularly
significant in terms of return periods. Expect the highest rises
along the Wulik, Noatak, and Kobuk Rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ212-AKZ214.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUL 22

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