Gale Warning 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKDT Wed Apr 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another sunny day with above normal temperatures expected today
across much of the Interior with a cooling trend starting tomorrow
into the weekend. A couple of weather systems will affect
portions the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island today through
Friday with increased chances of precipitation. While the North
Slope will experience slightly below normal temperatures this
afternoon and again for Thursday. A strong low moving in the
Bering Sea coupled with a strong high over the Arctic, will cause
easterly winds to increase across much of Northern Alaska late
Thursday into Friday especially over the West Coast and the North
Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern aloft at 500 hpa consists of a 558 decameter
(dam) ridge that remains parked over Northern Alaska. This
feature is forming an Omega Block when combined with a 516 dam
low over the Western Aleutians and a 536 dam low over the
Southeast Panhandle which will persist through this afternoon.
By Thursday, some changes are in store as the synoptic pattern
shifts with the ridge pushing north into the Chukchi Sea while the
low over the Aleutians moves into the Bering Sea and a trough
digs south out of the Yukon. This will keep most of the
precipitation chances confined across the Bering and West Coast
while cooler air surges south as flow aloft turns northerly over
much of the Central and Eastern Interior.

Model Discussion...
The models are in general good agreement on the evolution of
features on the synoptic scale over the next several days, with a
consensus of an active weather pattern staying mainly across the
Bering Sea and West Coast, while the Interior remains dry with a
cool down ensuing Thursday into the weekend. For this afternoon's
forecast package, we went with a general blend of model solutions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Some stratus will linger inland across the northern foothills of
the Brooks Range today into tonight. The cold front that passed
through the region yesterday, will keep temperatures slightly
below normal along the Arctic Coast today into Friday with highs
struggling to reach the single digits above zero. North of Alaska,
over the Arctic, a strong high will build as a deep low moves
into the Bering, resulting in strong easterly winds along the
Chukchi Sea Coast today spreading to the Beaufort Sea Coast by
Friday, increasing chances of blowing snow, where some locations
may see visibility reduced to one half mile or less at times.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front moving north through the Bering Sea will bring
some snow, possibly mixed with rain, to areas along the West Coast
and over the Bering Sea today into tonight. Snow accumulations
will be minor, with up to a one inch possible for the Yukon Delta
and St. Lawrence Island and little to no accumulations elsewhere.
Otherwise, warm temperature are once again expected today across
the Western Interior with highs climbing into the upper 40s to
lower 50s, then a cooling trend will begin Thursday into the
weekend as a colder air mass moves over the region. By late
Thursday, another low will move into the Bering causing easterly
winds to ramp up over the area, especially along the coast and
over St Lawrence Island with strong winds expected to continue
into Saturday. Just like the previous system, precipitation
chances will once again be confined primarily to the Yukon Delta
and St. Lawrence Island.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Sun with temperature climbing into the upper 40s to near 50
degrees will make for a nice afternoon across the area today as a
ridge continues to dominate weather conditions. A change in the
pattern will begin Thursday as colder air filters into the
Interior creating a cooling trend leading into the weekend. Highs
on Thursday will be in the lower 40s with highs in the lower 30s
on Friday and Saturday. Not all hope is lost though, by Sunday, we
will see a rebound with temperatures climbing back to around 40
degrees. The pressure gradient over the Interior will start to
tighten up Thursday night resulting in breezy conditions,
strongest winds over summits, that will continue into Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecasts for Days 4 through 7...
Beginning the extended period on Saturday, a trough digging south
across the Interior out of the Yukon will allow colder air to
push into the Eastern and Central Interior. This will bring below
normal temperatures across the region into the weekend, with high
temperatures generally remaining in the 30s. Temperatures will
rebound nicely back into the lower 40s for Monday and Tuesday.
Elsewhere, a deep low moving through the Bering combined with high
pressure over the Arctic will continue to bring breezy conditions
to much of Northern Alaska into Saturday. Highest chances of
precipitation will be confined to the West Coast and over the
Bering Sea into early next week as high pressure over the Arctic
slides southeast through the Beaufort into far northeast Alaska by
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Snowmelt will continue today in and around the Fairbanks area,
which may cause ponding of water on roadways and near buildings.
This melting will be driven by temperatures that are expected to
top out near 50 degrees today. Snowmelt will decline Friday into
the weekend as cooler temperatures return.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Gale Warning for PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ225.

&&

RZ APR 22