Gale Warning 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 PM AKST Tue Mar 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The relative quiet weather of the last several days will end
tomorrow with heavy snow forecast for much of the Interior south
of Fairbanks as well as the Alaska Range. Gusty winds and light
snow will bring low visibilities in blowing snow over highway
summits North of Fairbanks. Strong winds will push east over the
Northern Interior tomorrow to the Western Interior and West Coast
late Wednesday and into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 08/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and 12z upper air observations as well as verifying well
against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread between model
families remains high even in the short range with the GFS again
being an outlier solution. Preferred to remain consistent with
well performing ECMWF and NAM which was used as the basis for
previous forecast package as well as for this forecast package.

Upper Levels and analysis....
Upper level ridging extends from the Interior south into the Gulf
of Alaska while a weak shortwave over the northern portions of the
Western Interior merges with a strong shortwave trough digging
south and west over Northeast Alaska tonight and over north
Central Alaska on Wednesday. As these two systems merge and
strengthen over the Central Interior a deformation zone producing
heavy snow will develop on Wednesday and continue into Thursday
along a line from Eagle to North Pole to Nenana to Lake
Minchumina. A 558 dam high pressure center near Wrangel Island
will remain nearly stationary into the later part of the week
while weak upper level low pressure remains over the Aleutians.

Central and Eastern Interior...
As mentioned above a strong deformation zone will develop on
Wednesday along a Eagle to North Pole to Nenana to Lake
Minchumina line. Heavy snow is expected to develop especially
along and to the south of this line on Wednesday. Winter Storm
Warnings have been issued for much of the Interior to the south
and east of Fairbanks including the Central and Eastern Alaska
Range. Winter Weather Advisories for snow and blowing snow over
Highway Summits have been issued form most zones north and west of
Fairbanks in the Central and Eastern Interior. Snow amounts will
taper off quickly to the north of Fairbanks however gusty winds
especially over highway summits north of Fairbanks will produce
low visibilities in blowing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow and rain continue to spread north this afternoon with
light snow reaching the Western Brooks Range by this evening. The
rain and snow mix will diminish from south to north this evening
over the West Coast and Western Interior. Storm total snow
accumulations will remain in the 1 to 2 inch range. As heavy snow
develops near the Alaska Range tomorrow there will be a slight
chance of mixed precipitation in the Y-K Delta eastward to near
McGrath tomorrow. Strong and gusty easterly to northeasterly
winds will increase over the Western Brooks Range, the higher
terrain of the Western Interior tomorrow as well as along the West
Coast tomorrow evening and into Thursday. Continue to monitor for
blowing snow and low visibility potential for these areas.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Strong surface high pressure exists over the Arctic waters. Areas
of fog, low stratus, and light snow and blowing snow reducing
visibility to one half mile are times continues this afternoon
especially for areas east of Utqiagvik. Winds will increase over
the Western North Slope tomorrow as pressure gradient between the
high over the Arctic waters and a trough of low pressure over the
Interior increases. Monitor for potential low visibilities in
blowing snow especially south of Point Lay tomorrow along the
Northwest Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
High pressure builds in from the northwest providing for cooler
and drier weather over mush of northern Alaska by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC MAR 22