Gale Warning 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 AM AKST Wed Nov 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure over Interior Alaska will persist
through Fri, and possibly into the weekend. This is causing
generally clear skies over the Interior and Eastern North Slope
that will continue through Fri and possible into the weekend.
This is causing strong inversions, with valleys in the 10 below to
10 above range, while hills and windy areas are in the teens
above. Easterly drainage winds of 15 to 30 mph have developed
down the Yukon and Tanana Valleys, as well as rivers draining into
the West Coast such as the Kobuk and Unalakleet Rivers.

A strong storm over Eastern Russia is causing south winds of 50
mph gusting 60-70 mph along the West Coast from the Bering Strait
to Point Lay, with southeast winds 20 to 40 mph along much of the
remainder of the West Coast and over the Utqiagvik area. These
winds will decrease slightly tonight as that low moves north, but
will increase again Thu and Thu night as another low moves from
the Bering Sea north over Eastern Russia.

These winds are causing high surf at St Lawrence Island the
Bering Strait that will continue through Thursday. This is causing
high surf from the Bering Strait to Point Hope that will continue
through Thursday night. This will cause beach erosion, and could
cause minor flooding of low lying areas and ice to pile up on some
beaches.

A weather front over the Central Bering Sea will move along the
West Coast of Alaska on Thu, and then move northeast to Barter
Island to the YK Delta by Fri. This will bring a chance of rain
and freezing rain to the West Coast tonight, with rain and areas
of freezing rain moving along the West Coast on Thu and into the
Western Interior Thu night, before changing to mainly snow on Fri.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Eastern
Russia and a strong ridge over Western North American with a cut
off low over the Gulf of AK. This pattern persists through Fri.
Models show the ridge breading down over the weekend, but models
have a tendency to break these ridges down too quickly so expect
it to persist into the weekend. A series of strong short wave
troughs will make their way from the Western Bering Sea north and
then east around this ridge and may gradually weaken the ridge and
push some weather into the West Coast and Arctic Coast on Thu and
Fri.

Surface...
A 988 mb low near Anadyr will move to 100 NM north of Wrangel Is
as a 998 mb low by 3pm Wed, to 400 NM north of Utqiagvik as a 1008
mb low by 3am Thu then continue north. A warm front stretches
from this low to the Western North SLope and will move north of
the Arctic Coast today. This is causing the very strong winds
along the West Coast from the Bering Strait to Wainwright today.

A low in the southern Bering Sea will move to 300 NM southwest of
Gambell as a 1000 mb low by 3am Thu, to 300 NM northwest of
Gambell as a 1006 mb low by 3pm Thu, and 400 NM northwest of
Utqiagvik as a 996 mb low by 3am Fri, and to 400 NM north of
Utqiagvik as a 996 mb low by 3pm Fri. A weather front associated
with this system will move to the Central Bering Sea this
tonight, along the West Coast of Alaska on Thu, to Deadhorse to
the Yk Delta Thu night, and then to Barter Island to the YK Delta
by Fri. This will bring a chance of rain and freezing rain to the
West Coast tonight, with rain and areas of freezing rain moving
along the West Coast on Thu and into the Western Interior Thu
night, before changing to mainly snow on Fri. This will also cause
south winds to increase again along the West Coast on Thu, and
cause West widns to increase over the North Slope on Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3am Thu. After that time, the GFS and
Canadian models move the short wave moving northeast over the
Chukchi Sea faster than the NAM and ECMWF. at this time favor the
faster GFS solution, since this short wave should be caught in
the fast SE flow around the perimeter of the strong ridge aloft.

850 mb temps are at or above 0C most areas today and tonight, with
temps falling to -4C along western capes on Thu, and falling
further to -6C to -10C along most of the West Coast and North
Slope by Fri. what little precip there is should be rain or
freezing rain today through Thu with snow above 2000-3000 ft.
Precip along the West Coast and North Slope will change to mix
rain, freezing rain and snow Thu night, and to all snow on Fri.

With precipitation, the NAM brings precip into the West Coast more
quickly and in greater amounts than other models starting tonight.
Favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for precip. Should only have a
slight change on NW AK this AM, then a chance along West Coast
Capes tonight, with a chance along the West Coast Thu into Fri
with precip likely along south facing slopes. Should see a chance
of precip moving into the Western Interior Thu night and Fri.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 6 mb too weak on the low
near Anadyr, but verify well on all other features. Models have
similar solutions on surface features through 3am Thu, then the
GFS moves the surface low faster to the NE than the other models.
At this time favor the faster GFS pollution due to the fast flow
aloft, and the favored GFS solution aloft. Will use the GFS for
surface features and winds, but bump up winds 3-5 kts over Western
AK today to account for the stronger than forecast low near
Anadyr.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
St Lawrence Island the the the Bering Strait...High Surf through
Thursday.

Bering Strait to Point Hope...High Surf through Thursday night.

Cape Lisburne to Utqiagvik...High Surf through Friday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ201.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-202.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ213.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ207.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ207.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225-230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKST Wed Nov 16 2022

AKZ208>210-212-215>217-171615-
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Lower Yukon Valley-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Kotzebue, Selawik,
Noorvik, Buckland, Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock,
Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Unalakleet,
Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Russian Mission,
Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Flat, Galena, Nulato,
Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
316 PM AKST Wed Nov 16 2022

...Freezing Rain Possible Thursday Into Friday...

Areas of freezing rain are possible across the West Coast and
Western Interior of Alaska Thursday into Friday. There is still
much uncertainty about the freezing rain, but ice amounts are
expected to be less than one tenth of an inch in the areas where
it does occur.