Gale Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A transition from a relatively cold and dry weather pattern to a
warmer and wetter pattern over the weekend begins tonight. Winds
will increase through the night over most areas from the Brooks
Range south, and cause very cold wind chill over the Northern
Interior and West Coast. Winter Weather Advisories for low wind
chills values and low visibilities in blowing snow over Interior
Highway Summits and over portions of NW Alaska and the Brooks
Range passes.

A weather front moving north over the Interior Friday and Friday
night will bring 2-4 inches of snow to the Western and Northern
Interior Fri into Sat. This front will bring strong chinook winds
across the Alaska Range Friday afternoon into Saturday, with and
just a brief period of light snow over the SE Interior. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the Central and Eastern Alaska Range.
Temperatures will warm to near or above freezing late Friday and
Saturday over the southern Interior and usher in a chance of light
snow, freezing rain and rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALoft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough stretching from
the North Pole south over Western Alaska and into the North
Central Pacific, with a ridge over the Eastern Pacific and Western
Canada. Short wave energy dropping down into the long wave trough
causes it to deepen and retrograde through the weekend while the
ridge builds north over Eastern Alaska and Northwest Canada. This
causes southerly flow to develop over Alaska on Friday, with
southerly flow increasing over the weekend. This will push warm
air north over all over Northern Alaska and cause surface temperature
to rise well above normal over all of Northern Alaska this weekend
and into early next week. Expect warmest conditions Sun and Mon.

Surface...
A 1005 mb low over Eastern Norton Sound will persist into Thu
night. This feature will cause light snow over the West Coast and
Western Interior south of Buckland to continue into Fri with
another 1-2 inches accumulation.

An inverted trough continues to move north and west around a 966
mb low over the eastern Alaska Peninsula will move into the
southeast Bering and the Yukon Delta as a 980 mb low on Friday.
The low pressure system will move north along the West Coast of
Alaska on Saturday. An occluded front associated with this low
will move northwest to the Alaska Range by Friday morning, and
then move northwest along a Bethel to Fairbanks to Eagle line by
Friday afternoon. The front continues to move northwest and will
be along a YK Delta to Kotzebue to Arctic Village line by Saturday
morning, and then weaken along the West Coast and Arctic Coast on
Saturday evening. This front will bring 2-4 inches of snow to the
Western and Northern Interior Friday into Saturday, and cause
increasing east winds and blowing snow across the Arctic Coast
Friday afternoon into Saturday. Winter Storm Watches have been
issued for the Eastern Arctic Coast with low visibilities in snow
and blowing snow expected to develop in these areas Friday
afternoon.

Models...
The 20th/12z models suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis as well as the 12z upper air observations, and verified
well against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread remains
reasonable on both location, track and strength of synoptic scale
features as well as from model run to model run in both the short
range as well as the mid range. Model spread increases considerably
in the extended range especially on a strong low moving north out
of the Northern Pacific into the Southern Bering Sea on Wednesday
of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ224.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 22