Brisk Wind Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow over the Southeast Interior will spread as far northwest as
McGrath to Nenana to Circle City by tonight, then linger there
into Fri, before diminishing from the northwest Fri night and Sat.
Expect just an inch or so of snow from McGrath to Fairbanks to
Circle, with snow getting heavier to the southeast. Denali to
to Eagle areas should have 2-4 inches of snow, while southeast of
that area 4-10 inches of snow can be expected, heaviest in the
Eastern Alaska Range. Most of the rest of Northern Alaska should
remain dry and cold through Sat, with light snow moving over the
North Slope east of Utqiagvik Sat night and Sun.

Northeast winds increasing tonight over Interior Highway Summits
and through Alaska Range Passes will cause blowing snow and
drifting snow with reduced visibility in those areas. The worst
conditions will be in Alaska Range Pass and Steese Highway Summits
where falling snow will occur.

Cold wind chills over the Eastern North Slope and portions of the West
Coast will continue into Fri night or Sat.

The Eastern Interior will dry out over the weekend and become very
cold early next week.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over Western Canada and
another ridge over the Bering Sea with a short wave trough over
Alaska. A series of short waves dropping south across Alaska will
cause that short wave to develop into a long wave trough over
Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska by Fri and persisting into Sat,
before the pattern progresses east on Sun, so that on Sun there
is a long wave trough over Wrn Canada, a ridge over the Gulf of
AK and the Eastern Bering and Wrn AK, and a trough over the Wrn
Bering. This pattern will hold into the middle of next week, and
possibly longer.

What this means is that the SE Interior will remain snowy into
Fri, then start to dry out, while the remainder of Nrn AK will
remain dry into next week. It also means that very cold temps over
the North Slope and Western Interior will moderate Sun while The
Eastern Interior will be near normal then chill to very cold
conditions Sun into at least the middle of next week.

Surface...
Strong high pressure stretching from NE Russia east across the
North Slope will persist into Sun. This is causing west winds of
10-20 mph over the Arctic Coast Utqiagvik east, and North winds
15-25 mph through Brooks Range Passes. This is causing cold wind
chills in those areas.

A strong low in the Gulf of AK will move to the Northern Gulf of
AK on Fri and then weaken into Sat, and move east on Sun. An
occluded and warm front with this low stretches from Kodiak east
along the Gulf of Alaska Coast, and will move to Kodiak to Denali
to Eagle by 3am Fri, remain in place through 3pm Fri, then weaken
and move southeast to Glennallen to Northway by Sat.

Snow over the Interior southeast of Fairbanks will spread as far
northwest as McGrath to Nenana to Circle City by tonight, then
linger there into Fri, before diminishing from the northwest Fri
night and Sat. Expect just an inch or so of snow from McGrath to
Fairbanks to Circle, with snow getting heavier to the southeast.
Denali to to Eagle areas should have 2-4 inches of snow, while
southeast of that area 4-10 inches of snow can be expected,
heaviest in the Eastern Alaska Range. Most of the rest of Northern
Alaska should remain dry and cold through Sat, with light snow
moving over the North Slope east of Utqiagvik Sat night and Sun.

Northeast winds increasing tonight over Interior Highway Summits
and through Alaska Range Passes ahead of this front will cause
blowing snow and drifting snow with reduced visibility in those
areas. The worst conditions will be in Alaska Range Passes and
Steese Highway Summits where falling snow will occur. Winds and
blowing snow will taper off Sat AM as the front moves east and
weakens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions
through 3am Sat, with the NAM showing much lower heights aloft
than other models for Sat and Sun. At this time, favor the
consensus of the GFS/ECMF and Canadian models on the solutions
aloft for Sat and Sun.

For precipitation, models show similar solutions through 3am Sat.
After that time the GFS and ECMF linger precipitation over the SE
Interior longer than the NAM, and the NAM also bring precip into
the North Slope more quickly than other models. Given that we
favor the GFS and ECMF solutions for Sat and Sun, we will use a
blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMF for precip areal coverage and
amounts through 3am Sat, then use a blend of the GFS and ECMF for
Sat through Sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ212.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

JB JAN 22