Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

736 
FZAK51 PAFG 162332
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-171800-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1034 mb high will persist over the Arctic from Wrangel to Banks
Island while a trough of low pressure persists over Kotzebue.
Another trough of low pressure located over Demarcation Point 
will weaken.

$$

PKZ225-171800-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-171800-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-171800-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-171800-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-171800-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
232 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 22

269 
FZAK51 PAFG 171301
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-180330-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1032 mb high will persist over the Arctic from Wrangel to Banks
Island while a trough of low pressure persists over the Lisburne
Peninsula.

$$

PKZ225-180330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-180330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-180330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-180330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-180330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 22

540 
FZAK51 PAFG 172207
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-181530-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1031 mb high centered 175 nm west of Banks Island will move 
east to the Canadian Archipelago through Wednesday. A 1022 mb low 
centered east of Utqiagvik will lift northeast away from the coast
Tuesday and weaken.

$$

PKZ225-181530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-181530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-181530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-181530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-181530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
107 PM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt becoming W. Snow.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern in the short term is relatively quiet.
Snowfall that is currently being observed over the West Coast and
Western Interior will spread east into the Central and Eastern
Interior overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, 520dam low is currently in place over the
Kuskokwim Delta with a shortwave ridge over the eastern Interior
and the Yukon Territory. This low will move to the east tonight.
At the surface, a broad 1004 mb low is in place over southwest
Alaska while a strong area of high pressure stretches from eastern
Russia into the Chukchi Sea

Model Discussion...
The operational models are in good agreement through the weekend.
As we move into Monday, the NAM becomes an outlier. The 12 UTC
NAM was more aggressive with bringing in precipitation to the west
coast of Alaska than the GFS or the ECMWF. By the second half of
the week, the GFS and the ECMWF start to show bigger differences
in the placement of an upper low over western Alaska. We did not
make any big changes to the inherited forecast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A disturbance will move into the Interior from the west this
evening light snow that will continue until the disturbance moves
into Canada Sunday evening. Snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range
are anticipated. Some light snow is possible on Monday west of
Fairbanks; however, the models differ on the extent of the
precipitation.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow is light snow is currently being observed along the
West Coast and Western Interior. Snow in the Western Interior
will taper off early Sunday, with another inch or two of snow
accumulation anticipated. Another low will bring additional snow
to the Northwest Arctic Sunday evening and will slowly shift the
front east into the Interior early week. There is still some
uncertainty with the areal extent and timing of this snow;
however, snowfall will generally be light, with perhaps up to two
inches of accumulation expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Very cold wind chill values will be the main issue in the short
term as easterly winds along the Beaufort Sea Coast increase
tonight. We expect wind chill values as cold as 55 below zero. I
opted to issue wind chill advisories for the Beaufort Sea Coast
through noon Sunday. Light snow will move across the Arctic Coast
Sunday evening through Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
There still continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the extended
period. The models continue to develop a strong Arctic trough over
the region. The GFS continues to keep the trough over the Bering
Sea. The ECMWF continues to move the trough into the Interior.
Both the GFS and EC ensembles continue to be more in line with the
operational GFS. The GFS scenario would result in a much warmer
pattern for the Interior while the ECMWF solution would be colder,
with more chances for snow. We will have to continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

JAN 22