Blizzard Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

339 
WWAK41 PAFG 221334
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
434 AM AKST Thu Dec 22 2022

AKZ204-221445-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0019.000000T0000Z-221222T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
434 AM AKST Thu Dec 22 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ203-221445-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221222T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
434 AM AKST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the ALCAN border continues to dominate
bringing quiet but frigid weather to the area. This high pressure is
also allowing the Tanana Valley jet to ramp up in Delta Junction
with gusty southeast winds and wind chills well below negative 40F
where a Wind Chill Advisory currently resides. Aside from this,
areas of fog and ice fog has been around the interior reducing
visibilities for many locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...
An upper level low streaking across the southern half of Alaska
is heading into the Bering Sea and undercutting a 570 dam
(decameter) high northwest of Wrangel Island. However, this won't
change much as our pattern with a dominant Chukchi Sea high will
continue to feed north-northeasterly flow through most of the
state this week. Another low is set to drop south from the Arctic
and along the ALCAN border Thursday and into Friday. This will
provide a fresh injection of arctic air in the interior as the low
pressure slides south and eventually west over Mainland Alaska on
Friday and into the holiday weekend. Preliminarily, this may be
the coldest air of the season for many as we see 850mb
temperatures having the potential to go as low as negative 25C to
negative 30C in portions of the Central and Eastern Interior which
is much colder than what we have already seen this week. There is
still some uncertainty with the exact placement of the
aforementioned low pressure trough. The trend is to have it move
from east to west through the state this weekend and into the
beginning of next week as the strong Chukchi Sea high pressure
continues to be the main driver for our weather.

Surface...
High pressure remains dominant over the state as mainly clear
skies and well below normal cold air remain. A 1058mb high
pressure over the ALCAN border will be situated there and not move
much through Friday leaving much of the Central and Eastern
Interior weather the same. A secondary high pressure in the
Arctic is currently moving south through the North Slope and will
move into the Interior allowing an arctic boundary to set up in
southwestern Alaska. This will Inhibit and arctic boundary to
develop, allowing for some very light precipitation in Southwest
Alaska, mainly south of Anvik and Emmonak. Significant impacts out
of this are not anticipated. Aside from this, a low pressure
currently in the high arctic will be racing south today and arrive
along the northeastern Arctic Coast this evening providing gusty
wind and some light snow through Thursday Morning. Heading into
Friday, the low along the North Slope will weaken and move out of
the area, the arctic boundary in Southwest Alaska will drift
farther southwest and high pressure will dominate once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The main weather story in the North Slope and Brooks Range will be
accompanied by a low pressure moving in from the high arctic this
evening and tonight. Gusty winds are likely from Utqiagvik to
Barter Island with areas of snow expected, mainly east of
Deadhorse. Wind gusts may reach as high as 50 mph with the highest
gusts expected along the northeastern Arctic Coast early Thursday
Morning. Strong wind, falling and blowing snow may result in
blizzard conditions as visibility may be reduced to a quarter mile
or less at times, especially at Point Thompson and Barter Island.
In the Eastern Brooks Range, we will expect light snow and gusty
wind as well with most impacts being north and east of Atigun
Pass. This will be a short lived event as it will move out of the
area by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will move in
once again with drier conditions expected across the area. Winds
will be slow to diminish in the Brooks Range as a strong pressure
gradient remains through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Despite a very low chance at isolated snow showers south of Anvik
and Emmonak, the weather will be relatively tame along the West
Coast and Western Interior. Cold temperatures will remain in the
interior but strong, off-shore wind along the coast will keep
things relatively warmer through this weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Around Tanana and points north, a Wind Chill Advisory will remain
in place through this afternoon as light winds bring wind chills
as cold as 60 below. Heading into Thursday, the wind will diminish
but then return on Friday as the low pressure moves from the
north moves south and interacts with the nearly stationary high
pressure providing strong pressure gradients, especially in higher
elevations. At valley level, surface winds may get as high as 10
to 15 mph in Fairbanks and along the Middle and Lower Tanana
Valley. Any wind will correlate to increasing temperatures, but
wind chill values may reach 40 to 60 below in spots. Areas of fog
will be the main story this morning along the Middle Tanana Valley
as areas of ice fog will be around before diminishing this
afternoon. Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of
the week and into the holiday weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Days 4 Through 7...
After Friday, model guidance has begun to come to some sort of
agreement this weekend with an upper level low bringing in colder
air this weekend as it slides across the state. The exact
placement of the low is where the models differ with a spread
being from the Brooks Range to the Alaska Range. Nonetheless, cold
weather will persist through at least Saturday with the potential
for light snow in the Eastern Interior Saturday evening into
Sunday. The confidence for this snow is currently low and details
will be ironed out through the week.

&&