Blizzard Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

897 
WWAK41 PAFG 161703
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
803 AM AKST Fri Dec 16 2022

AKZ204-162100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0018.000000T0000Z-221216T2100Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
803 AM AKST Fri Dec 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST today.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 40 below
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

119 
WWAK41 PAFG 161952
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1052 AM AKST Fri Dec 16 2022

AKZ204-162100-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0018.000000T0000Z-221216T2100Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1052 AM AKST Fri Dec 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Conditions have improved.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
202 PM AKST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Changes are in store as the snow threat comes to an end across the
Southeast Interior this afternoon with high pressure building in.
High pressure will become the dominate feature over the next
several days across Northern Alaska, bringing in some of the
coldest temperatures seen this winter so far for many locations in
the Interior, especially across the Eastern Interior where some
places may see lows dip near or into the 50s below over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern at 500 hpa consists of 504 decameter (dam)
low 350 nm north of Barter Island with a 580 dam high over the
North Pacific and associated ridge nosing north into the Bering
Sea, and zonal flow over the Interior. Over the next several days,
ridging will be the main story maker as it progresses eastward
and amplifies over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska while the
low north of Barter Island and associated trough digs down across
Eastern Alaska and the Yukon, ushering in some of the coldest
temperatures of the season to date.

At the surface, the main features are a 1046 mb high over the
Chuktosk Peninsula and a weak disturbance over the Southeast
Interior. As the afternoon progresses, these features will shift
east, with the disturbance over the Southeast Interior weakening
and moving east into Canada while high pressure builds over
Western Alaska. By the weekend, Northern Alaska will be dominated
by high pressure as it shifts east and builds across Eastern
Alaska.

Model Discussion...
Model spread between solutions are in good agreement through
Sunday with a general consenus of much colder temperatures making
a return to Northern Alaska for the weekend into early next week.
With that being said, for this afternoon's forecast package, we
went with a general blend of model solutions, making minor changes
to the inherited forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Benign weather conditions will exist across most of the region
over the next several days as high pressure builds across
Northern Alaska. With the axis of high pressure over Western
Alaska and low pressure exiting east, the gradient will tighten
across the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast this afternoon primarily
from Deadhorse east, where west winds will gust up to 55 mph
creating blowing snow and reduced visibility to one half mile or
less at times. These strong winds will persist through Friday
afternoon, diminishing late Friday evening. Temperatures will
trend cooler, with inland areas dropping into the 30s below over
the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Are you ready for a period of quiet weather? If you are, well I
have great news for you. Confidence is high that high pressure
will build across the region through the weekend. This will not
only keep conditions dry, but will bring in colder temperatures
with many coastal communities seeing highs top out in the single
digits to low teens above zero with lows dipping into the single
digits below zero for the next several days. Inland areas will see
the biggest drop in temperatures with many locations in the teens
to 20s below, with a few of the colder spots across the Lower
Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys seeing temperatures dip into the
30s below.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Once the snow that has been plaguing many locations from Fairbanks
east and southeast comes to an end by this evening, quieter
weather will ensue for the weekend as high pressure builds across
Northern Alaska. Winds will ramp up this afternoon from Tok to
Northway up to 25 mph and quickly diminish by midnight tonight,
creating areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility to one half
mile or less at times for motorists traveling this portion of the
Alaska Highway. Then, attention shifts to temperatures as
confidence remains high with conditions getting much colder as
temperatures plummet for many locations into the 20s and 30s below,
with the Yukon Flats, Tok, and Fortymile Country seeing
temperatures in the 30s and 40s below, possibly a few of the
colder spots dipping into the low 50s below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
For the extended period that begins early Monday, models continue
to indicate a relatively benign weather pattern across Northern
Alaska with ridging nosing north across the Bering Sea and Western
Alaska while a trough digs down across the Yukon. This pattern
will continue to usher in colder temperatures into the Central and
Eastern Interior through the weekend and into next week, where
the typical cold spots in the Eastern Interior can expect to see
temperatures dip down into the 40s to 50s below. Some relief is
on tap by mid next week with temperatures moderating back into the
10s to 20s below.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ224.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ223.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

RZ DEC 22