Blizzard Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

792 
WWAK41 PAFG 161001
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ204-170000-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
201 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight AKDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could 
  cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to less than 
  one quarter mile at times. Large snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

&&

$$

AKZ203-170000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
201 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one 
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight AKDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could 
  cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to one half 
  mile at times. Snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

231 
WWAK41 PAFG 161540
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
740 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ204-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
740 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight AKDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to less than 
  one quarter mile at times. Large snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ203-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
740 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one 
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight AKDT Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to one half 
  mile at times. Snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

154 
WWAK41 PAFG 162130
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ204-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
130 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to less than 
  one quarter mile at times. Large snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ203-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
130 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one 
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to one half 
  mile at times. Snow drifts will develop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

172 
WWAK41 PAFG 170446
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
846 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

AKZ204-170600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0015.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
846 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminish across the area and still expect to have wind
gusts up to 30 mph. However, the visibility is expected to range
between 1 to 3 miles. Thus the blizzard warning has been
cancelled.

$$

AKZ203-170600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-221017T0800Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
846 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Expect the light snow to continue with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph. 
However the visibility has improved and expect visibility to be 4
to 6 miles.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
532 AM AKDT Sat Oct 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move north across the Interior today and Sunday
bringing a potential mixed bag of precipitation, increasing
winds, and warmer temperatures. Strong southerly winds expected to
develop in the Alaska Range passes today continuing into Sunday,
extending north to near Delta Junction. Gusty east to northeast
winds develop over Interior uplands today, accompanied by areas of
blowing snow. Winds diminish across the Interior Sunday. Strong
east winds develop along the Beaufort Sea coast tonight,
increasing Sunday, and could cause blizzard to near blizzard
conditions for the Beaufort Sea coast tonight and Sunday. The
winds on the North Slope could cause elevated surf east of
Utqiagvik Sunday and Sunday night, and from Utqiagvik to
Wainwright Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 501 dam (decameter) low is 150 NM north of
Banks Island. Ridging extends northwest from a high in the NE
Pacific, stretching along the SE Alaska coastline to the Tanana
Valley, across Kotzebue Sound and to the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 526
dam low is 175 NM south of False Pass, a 533 dam low is 375 NM W
of the Pribilofs and a 527 dam low is over Eastern Siberia,
resulting in broad troughing over the Bering Sea and Chukotka. As
the low south of False Pass moves north through the weekend,the
low west of the Pribilofs will merge with it, resulting in a broad
520 dam low over the Pribilofs and eastern Bering Sea. Troughing
extends east to the West Coast and Western Interior by Sunday
afternoon, as the ridge slides northeast and the low near Banks
Island moves into the Canadian Archipelago. Shortwaves will move
north through the broad trough through the weekend, with a 521 dam
low developing over the western Arctic Plains by Monday morning.
This low will move north of the Arctic Coast by Monday night.

At the surface, an area of high pressure extends from a 1032 mb
high across the northern Yukon Territory and the northern
Northwest Territories, across the Brooks Range to offshore Point
Hope. A 1026 mb high is located over Eastern Siberia with high
pressure extending east across Chukotka. A 1015 mb low is 175 NM
northeast of Wrangel Island with a front extending south to the
northern Chukotsk Peninsula. A broad 986 mb low is located 150 NM
south of Sand Point. The high pressure across the Brooks Range
will slide eastward today as the high pressure over northwestern
Canada departs to the east. A 1020 mb high quickly slides east out
of the high Arctic to be 450 NM north of Point Barrow by this
afternoon, weakening the low northeast of Wrangel Island as it
moves east. This high pressure will slide to the east and north
through Monday. The broad low that was centered near Sand Point
moves north to be centered over the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon, with a 984 mb piece of energy moving near Bristol Bay,
continuing north to be a 986 mb near Kuskokwim Bay by Sunday
morning, near Hooper Bay Sunday afternoon, and remaining in the
area through Monday morning. By Sunday morning troughing develops
over the Arctic Plains north of the Brooks Range, tightening the
gradient along the Arctic Coast, with a 992 mb low moving north of
the coast Monday afternoon. Leeside troughing strengthens north
of Alaska Range today, continuing into Sunday as a 994 mb low
develops by Sunday afternoon south of Salcha.

Models...
The 15/00Z model runs initialized well aloft against the 00Z RAOBS
and fairly at the surface with the 00Z and 06Z surface obs.
Models were about 2 mb too weak with the high pressure over the
Brooks Range, extending south to Northway and into the Yukon this
morning. This isn’t too surprising given that the models seem to
routinely have difficulties depicting strength and extent of high
pressure. Solutions remain consistent and are in good agreement
with the overall synoptic pattern. Differences are present by
Sunday afternoon with the upper level low over the southeastern
Bering Sea with a fair amount of spread in the placement of the
low center, and by Monday with the placement and strength of the
low that moves off the Arctic Coast. Model depiction of enhanced
southerly flow aloft across northern Alaska remains similar and
will be a driving force of the forecast over the next several
days. This southerly flow does present some challenges with
precipitation forecast, snow levels, and precip type. There is a
large spread in timing, coverage, and amount of precip in model
solutions, not only between the models but run to run. The warmer
air with the southerly flow will also bring rising snow levels
that vary from model to model and model run to model run, this in
turn makes precip type forecasts challenging this weekend.

Looking farther north to the Beaufort Sea coast late tonight into
Sunday, there remains spread in the timing and strength of the
easterly winds that develop along the coast. Confidence is high
that strong winds will occur, but confidence in exact strength and
timing is lower. This ties in with the timing of precip over the
same area. Snow will move over the coast, but there remains large
differences in placement and timing of the snow in model
solutions. All of this points to difficulties in pinning down how
low visibility will drop in blowing snow. Given that temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s and winds likely beginning
to diminish when the snow moves in, my confidence in meeting the
three hour requirement of blizzard warning is on the lower side,
however, do believe that we will likely see visibility of a mile
or less.

Given the spread, we opted to use a general blend of models, making
only minor changes to the inherited forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Strong east winds of 30 to 45 mph develop over the eastern Arctic
Coast tonight and Sunday, as low pressure develops across the
Arctic Plains and high pressure is over the offshore waters. These
strong winds will be accompanied by areas of blowing snow,
dropping visibility to a mile or less at times. There is the
potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions for zones 203
and 204. The winds on the North Slope could cause elevated surf
east of Utqiagvik Sunday and Sunday night, and from Utqiagvik to
Wainwright Sunday night and Monday night. Snow will spread north
across the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast Sunday and Sunday
night, bringing half an inch to an inch of accumulation to most
locations, locally higher amounts expected in the Brooks Range.
Temperatures warming.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front pushing north will bring the next chance of precip this
afternoon with precip chances continuing into early next week as
a low moves into the southern Bering Sea. The bulk of the precip
will be in the form of snow showers, but there is the potential
for some mixed precip in the western Interior possible tonight
into Monday, as southerly flow aloft increases bringing some
warmer air. Northeast winds increase and become gusty today,
especially in higher elevations. Through the Bering Strait to St
Lawrence Island, and along the coast from the Seward Peninsula
south, northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph expected, moving to the
western capes tonight and Sunday. Temperatures warm through the
weekend and into early next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will move north across the Interior today and Sunday. East
to northeast winds increase across the Interior today, with gusts
to 45 mph possible over the Interior uplands today. Areas of
blowing snow may accompany these gusty winds, and visibility may
drop below a mile at times over Dalton Highway summits. Tanana
Valley Jet continues through the weekend. Strong southerly winds
expected to develop in the Alaska Range passes today continuing
into Sunday, extending north to near Delta Junction. Gusts to 60
mph possible in and near the Alaska Range passes. Precip chances
return today with the front and spread from the southeast to the
northwest through Sunday. The Alaska Range will block much of the
precipitation in the Tanana Valley on today, with the best chances
to the north and west. Southerly flow aloft will bring warming
temperatures and rising snow levels that will bring a mix of
precip including a slight chance of freezing rain to the southern
Interior today, with a chance of freezing rain tonight and Sunday.
Snowfall totals Saturday through Sunday generally 1 to 3 inches
from Hughes to Fort Yukon north into the southeastern Brooks
Range, as well as in the Alaska Range, half an inch to 2 inches in
the Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley, and generally
half an inch or less elsewhere. Temperatures will increase a few
degrees each day through the weekend and into early next week.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
A front associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska will push across
the Alaska Range Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a round of
precipitation to the eastern Interior. A low over the Kamchatka
Peninsula will send a front across the Bering Sea and to the West
Coast and Western Interior Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in
unsettled weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ203-204.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ225-226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240-245.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ245.
&&