Storm Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

879 
FZAK51 PAFC 272355
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281315-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front enters the Western Gulf Wed morning and extends across 
the Northern Gulf through Thu afternoon. A 998 mb low forms on the
front 20 nm North of Kodiak City for Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-281315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281315-
Resurrection Bay-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281315-
Prince William Sound-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281315-
Port Valdez-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281315-
Valdez Narrows-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281315-
Valdez Arm-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281315-
Passage Canal-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281315-
Barren Islands East-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 40 kt becoming SE
20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281315-
Chiniak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281315-
Marmot Bay-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281315-
Shelikof Strait-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-281315-
Kachemak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

276 
FZAK51 PAFC 281159
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-290045-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A series of fronts will move across the Gulf
this morning through Friday morning. A 1006 mb low will move 200 nm 
southwest of Kodiak City Friday morning.

$$

PKZ119-290045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt early increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft early
building to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near the coast. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-290045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt early increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building 
to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-290045-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-290045-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-290045-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-290045-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-290045-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt...except becoming SE near the Sound after
midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt...except SE near the Sound in the morning. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-290045-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-290045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-290045-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-290045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 40 kt
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-290045-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-290045-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-290045-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-290045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-290045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-290045-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...Outer Bay...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Inner Bay...E wind
15 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

873 
FZAK51 PAFC 282349
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291300-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 mb low 15 nm East of Castle Cape moves along the front to 
25 nm West of the Barren Islands by Fri morning, dissipating 
Midday Fri. Its front extends across the Gulf through Fri 
afternoon. A 1009 mb low forms 105 nm South of Sitkinak Fri 
morning and moves 155 nm South of Kodiak City by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-291300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight, except near
the coast E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Gusts to 
55 kt near the coast after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt, except E 35 kt near the coast in the 
evening. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291300-
Resurrection Bay-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291300-
Prince William Sound-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291300-
Port Valdez-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291300-
Valdez Narrows-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291300-
Valdez Arm-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291300-
Passage Canal-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291300-
Barren Islands East-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291300-
Chiniak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291300-
Marmot Bay-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291300-
Shelikof Strait-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-291300-
Kachemak Bay-
349 PM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKDT Mon Sep 26 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low is positioned in the western Bering Sea
with a surface front extending across the central Aleutians,
bringing rain and gusty winds to these areas. A second, weaker low
is positioned over Bristol Bay. Southerly flow out ahead of it is
driving scattered showers over much of Southwest Alaska and along
the Gulf coast. Weak ridging is seen between these two features
and relatively calm conditions are observed across the eastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Confidence remains moderate to high in the short term as models
show good agreement with large scale features. Exact timing of
precipitation over Southcentral tonight into Tuesday remains
somewhat uncertain. GFS is slightly faster with the associated
upper wave, although all synoptic models indicate it moving
through in the same general time period. Models have slowed the
progression of a front moving into the western Gulf late Tuesday
into Wednesday. As such, stronger local gap winds may be likewise
slightly delayed.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Generally expect lowering ceilings as showers move into
the terminal late this afternoon and evening. Low level SSE flow
across the Kenai Mountains should initially keep ceilings low
end VFR, but as we head through the night flow will weaken and
ceilings will likely drop to MVFR. The bigger question is tomorrow
morning. With rain ending around 12Z and decreasing moisture
aloft, expect there will be some IFR clouds and maybe vis in the
vicinity. Best case scenario, there will just be some ground fog
at the terminal. Worst case, IFR/LIFR could settle in between
between 12 and 18Z. Ultimately, expect clearing by midday Tuesday
behind the exiting short-wave.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Tonight through Thursday)...

Expect showery conditions to continue over Southcentral Alaska
as a robust shortwave pivots over the region from tonight
through Tuesday morning. The forecast remains on track with
this shortwave. The heaviest precipitation is still expected
over Eastern Prince William Sound, with snow showers at higher
elevations due to cold air aloft. By Tuesday afternoon and
evening, the entrance of a transient shortwave ridge should
allow for clearer skies, with the potential for temperatures
to drop and some areas of fog due to radiational cooling.

Active weather returns by Wednesday morning as a mature low
tracking along the Eastern Aleutians pushes its front across
Southcentral. Newer model runs have the front moving more slowly
into Southcentral, so the timing of precipitation and the onset
of elevated winds have been delayed slightly. Regardless, we are
still expecting gales across much of the northern Gulf of Alaska,
with gusty gap winds through the Turnagain and Knik Arms.
Precipitation will likely be heavy along Prince William Sound
and the Western Kenai Peninsula, with interior Kenai Peninsula
and the Anchorage Bowl maintaining drier conditions due to
downsloping, at least until Thursday morning. Then, as the front
weakens and winds diminish, precipitation should fill in over
these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Thu evening)...

Generally quiet weather is expected across much of Southwest
tonight as an upper level low continues to weaken. Weak upper
level shortwaves continue to rotate around this low causing hit
and miss rain showers. Activity will be the most widespread this
afternoon through around midnight before diminishing overnight
with any remaining activity mostly confined to higher terrain.
Any areas that can clear out have the opportunity to dip to
freezing or slightly below freezing.

Then, a storm system currently impacting the Western Aleutians/western
Bering Sea will continue moving eastward along the Aleutian Chain
overnight. The front associated with this system is expected to
begin impacting part of the southern Alaska Peninsula Tuesday
morning with rain and wind. This front continues moving northward
reaching the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coastlines Tuesday
afternoon. As the front moves onshore and then inland, expect
gusty easterly to southeasterly winds to combine with periods of
rain leading to a wind-driven rain, especially in and around the
Dillingham area. Winds are expected to increase throughout the day
Tuesday for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta with wind gusts
peaking Tuesday evening/night. Peak wind gusts are expected to be
around 35 kts (40 mph) around Dillingham and up to 45 kts or 50
mph around Iliamna Wednesday am. Peak gusts on the Kuskokwim Delta
are expected to be upwards of 30 kts or 35 mph.

Lastly, after the initial front moves through, expect unsettled
conditions to continue Wednesday through Thu afternoon as the
energy with the main upper level low/trough meanders near Cape
Newenham. This will maintain periods of rain throughout this time
frame. Rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.25" are expected for Bristol
Bay with locally 2"+ amounts across the higher terrain northwest
of Dillingham. For the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim
Delta, expecting amounts of 0.5-1" with locally 1"+.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thu evening)...

A gale force storm system currently located in between Shemya and
Amchitka will continue moving eastward along the Aleutian Chain
tonight. Therefore, expect periods of rain showers along with
gusty winds to continue through tonight. Colder air wrapping in on
the backside of the low over a relatively warm water surface will
create for an unstable atmospheric profile leading to convective
showers tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday. As this cold air
wraps in on the backside of the storm, the pressure gradient at
the surface will tighten in combination with upper level support
leading to an increase to gale force winds across the eastern
Bering Sea for Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will also lead to
an increase in the wave heights with seas of 14-18 ft along the
northern Alaska Peninsula and on the northern side of the eastern
Aleutian Chain Wednesday/Wednesday night.

A weak storm system is expected to move through the Western
Aleutians Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon with some
more rain and gusty winds for the Western Aleutians, though, not
nearly as strong as this initial system.

Then attention turns late in the period to a much stronger low
pressure system moving towards the Aleutians/Bering Sea Thursday.
One thing of note right off the bat is this is not expected to be
anything like the previous ex-typhoon Merbok in terms of track and
intensity. The current track takes this system northward from the
North Pacific to around Shemya where it will reach its peak
intensity. The storm is then expected to begin moving off to the
east and slowly weaken as it traverses the Bering Sea. Right now,
it appears storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts are
possible for the Western and Central Aleutians as this system
moves through along with periods of heavy rain. Seas up to 40 ft
are also possible mainly on the Pacific side of the Western
Aleutians. The weather scenario playing out is a current tropical
storm named "Kulap" will move northeastward and get absorbed
(phase) into an upper level trough coming off the Asia continent.
This will help the storm to become extratropical as colder air is
absorbed into the system with the exact strength still uncertain,
though not as strong as ex-Merbok. The potential exists for this
to be a hurricane force low as it moves into the Western Aleutians,
weakening as it moves across the Bering Sea with the center
staying near or west of the Pribilofs.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-wave trough will remain over the Bering Sea along with
negative height anomalies at 500 mb through Day 7. The pattern
remains unsettled for the Bering as Tropical Storm Kulap becomes
extra-tropical and moves into region. At the onset of this
forecast period, Friday, model divergence remains regarding the
intensity and the track of the surface low. The divergence amongst
the global models becomes more amplified on Saturday and Sunday.
But the general consensus is that the remnants of Kulap will push
eastward across the Central Bering, then take more of a
southeastward turn back toward the Pacific. The evolution of this
system is being rigorously scrutinized. The divergence in model
solutions is not atypical at these longer time scales. As newer
model data become available the confidence level in the track of
this low will increase.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 132 136 137 150 160 170 171 172 173
                      174 175 176 177 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
LONG TERM...PS