Storm Warning 94, NWS Anchorage, AK

817 
FZAK52 PAFC 161908 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170015-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 941 mb low 260 nm north of Shemya weakens to 948 mb as it moves
to 80 nm southwest of St. Lawrence Island by Fri evening. The low 
then moves to 40nm N of St. Lawrence Island at 955 mb Sat 
morning. This low continues to weaken to 980 mb as it enters the 
southern Chukchi Sea through Sun morning. A North Pacific low 
moves to 130 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 1014 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170015-
Bristol Bay-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt except SW 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft except 19 ft from Port Moller E.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170015-
Unalaska Bay-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt early. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt early. Seas 32 ft subsiding 
to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170015-
Adak to Kiska-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
33 ft subsiding to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170015-
Kiska to Attu-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 32
ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt increasing to 60 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
75 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft building to 39 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
38 ft subsiding to 30 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon, except
increasing to 65 kt near Nunivak Island. Seas 11 ft building to 
18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt, except SW 65 kt near Nunivak Island
during the evening. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt increasing to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 65 kt diminishing to SW 50 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 75 kt in the evening. Seas 37 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft building to 40 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 65 kt diminishing to
55 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 55 kt
diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 40 ft subsiding to 33 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 45 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

078 
FZAK52 PAFC 162317
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171230-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

The 946 mb Merbok low 70 nm Northwest of St Matthew Island moves 
to 70 nm North of Point Hope at 989 mb for Sun afternoon. Its 
front wraps over the Russian Far East and Alaskan Arctic Coast 
through Sun afternoon. A 1007 mb low forms over the Pribilofs by 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171230-
Bristol Bay-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft except 19 ft from Port Moller 
E.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171230-
Unalaska Bay-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171230-
Adak to Kiska-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171230-
Kiska to Attu-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
37 ft subsiding to 30 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 60 kt, except SW wind 40 kt S of Cape Newenham. 
Seas 30 ft. S of Cape Newenham, seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 60 kt. Seas 38 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
317 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 65 kt diminishing to
55 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 50 kt.
Seas 40 ft subsiding to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 45 kt. W of Saint Matthew 
Island, W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

All attention is on a powerful storm system (formerly Typhoon Merbok)
which is rapidly deepening as it crosses the western Aleutian Islands
into the Bering Sea. Everything about this system looks highly
impressive. The central pressure is estimated at around 950 mb
and falling. The low will pass near the vicinity of Shemya around
6pm AKDT, which will provide an instrument-based reading to
estimate the central pressure. Based on a combination of real-time
surface and satellite-based observations supplemented by model
data, gale force winds extend roughly 500 miles in all directions
from the low center; storm force or higher winds extend 500 to 800
miles; and a smaller swath of hurricane force winds can be found
on the south to east side of the low center coincident with colder
air wrapping into the system. This core of strongest winds is
tracking northward between Adak and Shemya.

Meanwhile, the overall moisture content of this system is quite
extreme, a combination of advection of warm moist air from the
tropics and dynamical forcing leading to strong upward vertical
motion and heavy precipitation. CIMMS MIMIC satellite-based
precipitable water products show a large area of 1"+ TPW extending
along the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian chain, and southern Bering
Sea - with a small area of 2"+. To put this into perspective,
this equates to 200 to 300% of normal. The heaviest rain with
this system is spreading across the western Aleutians and into
the Bering Sea, though the greatest impact is from rapidly
increasing winds and seas.

Out ahead of this storm, a vertically stacked low is tracking
onshore of western Alaska in the vicinity of the Y-K Delta.
Rain is spreading from Southwest Alaska to Kodiak and Southcentral
Alaska, with the heaviest rain focused along the frontal system
and ahead of a sharp short-wave on the south side of the upper
low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in excellent agreement with handling of this major
fall storm, with good run-to-run continuity. As a result, overall
forecast confidence in the forecast and associated impacts is
high. The biggest uncertainty is with the exact timing and degree
of storm surge for the Kuskokwim Delta coast. This phenomena is
traditionally difficult to measure and model. However, based on
confidence in the overall track and strength of the storm, it does
look like the most impressive storm surge event in recent memory.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Tight pressure gradients ahead of the low over Southwest
Alaska and associated frontal system will lead to persistent gusty
southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening. This should
largely maintain VFR ceilings despite steady rain, perhaps briefly
lowering close to MVFR at times. Winds will then rapidly cut off
around 09Z as a surface low forms in the northern Gulf, realigning
the pressure gradients. With rain continuing ahead of an upper
level short-wave, the weakening of southeast flow will likely
lead to a further drop in ceilings down to MVFR. Conditions will
then improve as the short-wave exits and rain ends early Friday
morning. There is a risk of localized fog/low clouds in the IFR
category Friday morning, which always poses a difficult forecast
challenge. For now, have opted to keep it out of the terminal.
Lastly, southeasterly winds will push back in Friday afternoon in
response to the major storm system in the Bering Sea. If any low
clouds do linger in the area, this will help to clear them out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Tonight through Sunday)...

The first of two frontal systems expected to impact portions of
the outlook area for the next day or two is already making steady
progress across Southcentral this evening. A band of steady
rainfall currently stretching from the western Kenai Peninsula to
the Mat-Su Valleys will begin to shift east towards the Prince
William Sound (PWS) as an upper level trough slides southeast from
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley rapidly into the northern Gulf. The
influx of upper forcing should foster development of a weak
surface low near Middleton Island along the dying frontal axis.
This will essentially neutralize the southeast to northwest
pressure gradient across the Kenai Peninsula and temporarily shut
off the related southeast gap winds Friday morning. Rain near the
PWS area and winds wrapping the low up, to small craft levels,
will diminish as the weak center drifts into the southeast Gulf by
the afternoon, and as a strong upper ridge axis pushes in from
the west. This will provide a good chance for most of the rest of
Southcentral to dry out for several hours through at least early
Friday afternoon. The main exception will be for Kodiak Island and
the far southern Kenai Peninsula, where more rains associated
with a warm and occluding front will push in from the southwest
late Friday morning, then quickly letting up as the front shears
apart over the Alaska Peninsula later in the day.

Looking into Friday night and Saturday, strong southwest flow is
poised to set up across Southcentral as the large, extratropical
remnant of Merbok lumbers towards the Seward Peninsula and the
strong upper ridge shifts east towards the AlCan border. Models
are beginning to better hone in on a shortwave trough that should
be whisked rapidly northeast across Southcentral late Friday
night. This should push a very quick-hitting round of rain across
the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage area overnight
Friday, shifting rapidly into the Copper River Basin and eastern
PWS as the wave speeds northeast. Despite the wet start, it's
shaping up to become a pleasant afternoon for at least the eastern
half of the outlook area as a slot of cool, dry air noses in
behind the exiting shortwave disturbance, perhaps allowing for a
mostly clear end to the day across the western Kenai Peninsula and
Anchorage vicinity.

The quiet, cool break in the weather is likely to extend into
Sunday (barring any pesky low stratus and fog), but there will
certainly be the chill of fall in the air. Assuming it stays calm
and clear enough, much of the Copper River Basin could see the
first frost and/or freeze of the season all the way down to the
lowest elevations, with early Sunday lows dipping into the upper
20s to mid 30s for places including Gulkana and Tazlina.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

Overall, the forecast remains on track. Showers will taper off
across Southwest Alaska this evening as a low over the Y-K Delta
weakens. Light rain returns early tomorrow morning as a potent
low in the Western Bering pushes its front across Southwest
Alaska. The bigger story with this low, however, are the strong
winds that will wrap around it and push into the Kuskokwim Delta.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for Kuskokwim Delta from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning. The strongest winds (with
gusts up to 80 mph) are expected nearer the coast, though winds
could still gust up to 60 mph further inland. Given these strong
winds and the long fetch associated with the track of this low, an
extratropical storm surge is expected to affect the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. As such, a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect as
water levels could rise about 5 to 8 feet above the normal highest
tide line. No warnings are in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley or Bristol Bay; these locations are far enough from the
track of the low that they will be spared from strong winds. Winds
will still be elevated, however, with gusts approaching about 40
mph.

Winds will diminish and conditions will improve from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday as the surface low moves north into the
Bering Strait. Rain showers will linger across the region as a
longwave trough swings over the Bering Sea and towards Southwest
Alaska on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

All eyes are on the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok as it
moves from the Western Aleutians tonight to the Bering Strait on
Saturday. A High Wind Warning is currently in effect for the
Western and Central Aleutians through tomorrow morning, with gusts
up to 90 mph expected as cold air wraps around this low. As the
low continues moving north across the Western and Central Bering
Sea tomorrow morning, hurricane force winds and seas up to 50 ft
will follow it. The next land area to be impacted will be the
Pribilof Islands, for which High Wind Warnings are in effect from
Friday morning through early Saturday morning. With the low center
entering the Bering Strait by Saturday morning, winds should
slowly subside across the Bering Sea through early Sunday morning.
Aside from a few showers, calmer conditions should prevail on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Merbok remains the main concern through the end of this week. As
this system enters the Bering Sea it is expected to re-intensify
and go through the extra-tropical transition as is ingesting cold
air from eastern Russia. There is very minor uncertainty regarding
the exact track and strength of this storm as the center of the
low expected to pass over Shemya this afternoon. It will then
track from the Western Bering Sea to the vicinity of Norton Sound
on Saturday. Expect widespread storm force winds across the
Bering with areas of hurricane force winds. The hurricane force
winds are most likely from the Western Aleutians to the Central
Bering Sea between this afternoon and Friday evening. Seas are
also expected to build rapidly with widespread 30 to 40 ft seas
across much of the Bering with 40 to 50 ft seas associated with
the strongest winds. This is a major Bering Sea Storm and mariners
are encouraged to enact necessary precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue for Southern Alaska
in the extended period, with multiple waves approaching from the
north Pacific and western Bering Sea. Several bouts of intense
winds and rainfall are expected for both the Aleutian chain and
Southcentral.

By Sunday evening, Typhoon Merbok remnants in the Eastern Bering
will have moved north out of the area, however will still be
inducing onshore flow into the southwest Alaska coastline. The
concern of strong winds and rainfall associated with this low
will have diminished significantly by Monday, however showery
activity across Southwest Alaska is still possible. Following
Merbok in Southwest Alaska, a new low originating from the north
Pacific looks to enter the Eastern Bering Monday. Timing and
positioning of this system has yet to reach a concensus in the
guidance. Thursday's 12Z Canadian and Euro models advance this
north Pacific low across the Eastern Aleutians into the Bristol
Bay area Monday morning. Additionally, a low forming off of the
Kamchatka Peninsula and, with moderate model uncertainty, will
deepen and approach the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning. The
Kamchatka low will move across the Aleutian Chain providing
lingering precipitiation in the Central Bering as well as strong
winds throughout the region through the middle of next week.

From Sunday afternoon, a respite in precipitation for
Southcentral is expected to persist through Monday afternoon. With
some discrepancies, guidance then suggests the introduction and
intensification of a North Pacific low south of the Alaska
Peninsula. This system will provide heavy precipitation across the
Southcentral coastline and eventually move inland. Precipitation
associated with this system is expected to persist into Wednesday.
Southeasterly flow will develop a Barrier jet wind along the
northern Gulf coast, including Prince William Sound Tuesday
morning. Winds up the Kamishak Gap into the Greater Bristol Bay
area will also be a concern Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 155 187, 191, 195.
         Coastal Flood Warning: 155.

MARINE...Gale Warning: 155, 165, 170, 172-174.
         Storm Warning: 175, 176, 179, 180, 181, 414.
         Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 411-413, 177, 178, 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...CL