Storm Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

179 
FZAK62 PAFC 291154
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300115-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low over southwest Alaska pivots across Bristol Bay and 
into the Gulf Thu evening at 1004 mb. A strong 960 mb low near 
45N 163E moves to 57N 178W at 965 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 25 to 
40 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 70 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 to 45 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 31 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft building to 8 to 16 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 15 to 30 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 55 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 20
ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 40 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 27 to 35 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

890 
FZAK62 PAFC 292349
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301330-
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1000 mb low at 59N 161W moves to 54N 152W at 1007 mb Fri afternoon
and dissipates Fri night. A 948 mb low near 52N 170E moves to 57N 
173W at 975 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front moves into the Eastern 
Aleutians and Bering through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-301330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft building to 21 to
36 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 65 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 26 to 41 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 32 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft building to 8 to 16 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 16 to 31 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 PM AKDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

930 
FZAK62 PAFC 301200
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010145-
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong 942 mb low near 55N 175E moves to 57N 169W Sun morning 
at 982 mb. A developing Kamchatka low moves to 53N 173E at 996 mb 
Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 to 70 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 26 to 42 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 16 to
31 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt in the morning becoming SW. Seas 17 to 
32 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 26 to 36 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

208 
FZAK62 PAFC 302346
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011500-
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 956 mb low at 57N 179E moves to 59N 166W at 992 mb for Sun 
afternoon. Its front moves over Southwest Alaska through Sun 
afternoon. A 1009 mb South Kamchatka low moves to 54N 179W at 992 mb 
by Sun afternoon. Its front moves into the Central Aleutians for Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 26 to 36 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

956 
FZAK62 PAFC 011158
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020130-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low near 57N 179W moves to 57N 169W at 986 mb Sun 
morning before moving over Southwest Alaska at 996 mb Sun night. 
Another low moves to 53N 173E while deepening to 996 mb Sun 
morning. This new low amplifies over the Bering Sea near 56N 173W
at 986 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

216 
FZAK62 PAFC 020000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021415-
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb at 57N 173W moves to 58N 168W at 996 mb Sun afternoon and
then weakens and moves inland. Another low moves 53N 179E while 
deepening to 991 mb Sun afternoon. This new low amplifies over the 
Bering Sea at 56N 172W at 986 mb Mon morning then weakens and moves 
to 55N 168W Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 to
12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 PM AKDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT Wed Sep 28 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The Rossby Wave pattern remains amplified. An upper level low over
Bristol Bay continues to move northeastward. Upper level ridging
currently extends across Southeast Alaska through the Copper
Basin.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows rain and showers moving
northward across the Gulf of Alaska to over Cook Inlet, the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Another area of rain continues
to move northward across Bristol Bay to over Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in fair agreement with respect to the placement and
intensity of synoptic scale features. There are some slight
differences in position with respect to the next Bering Sea low.
However, there is high confidence the track of this next system
will remain much farther south of the track Merbok took. This
southerly track of this next system will allow for offshore wind
flow across Southwest Alaska which will minimize the risk for
coastal flooding. Models have also trended towards a deeper low
comparing the 12z runs with the 00z runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for this TAF period with
temporary MVFR conditions inside areas of light rain before 16z.
Low-level wind shear is expected through 29th/12z as winds will be
significantly stronger aloft than near the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Wed
through Fri)...The well-advertised frontal system will move
through the area today. This will bring rain and winds to just
about all locations through the end of the week. Rain has already
started from Kodiak up through Seward. It will continue to track
northeast through the day reaching the Prince William Sound and
Cordova by this afternoon. The heaviest rain will certainly be
focused along the coast with steady onshore flow. The highest
totals will target the Whittier and Portage areas with 3-4" likely
by Thu evening. Seward will also see an extended period of wet
weather. However, easterly flow at the mountain top level near
the coast will limit their overall totals. We still expect around
2.5" for Seward by Thu evening. For many inland population centers
(Anchorage, Palmer, Kenai), cross barrier flow will lead to
mostly dry conditions until Thu.

Winds will be the other impactful part of this storm. The gradient
will tighten through the day allowing for a steady increase of
southeast winds. This gradient will favor places like the
Turnagain and Knik Arms, as well as the Copper River Basin. Some
of the strongest winds of the season thus far are also expected
this evening along the Anchorage Hillside. The upper levels will
become more favorable for gusty winds later today as a weak upper
level jet moves right over the Chugach mountains. Gusts to 55 mph
will be possible this evening. Please see the Special Weather
Statement for more details. Marine areas will see winds reach
storm force through the Barren Islands. As the front lifts north
tonight, it will compress in the barrier jet region along the
north Gulf coast. Gusts to at least 50 kt are expected in this
area as well.

By Thu, winds will subside significantly. As the upper level
energy from the low center itself starts to work through Cook
Inlet, expect chances for rain to increase for inland areas. While
the rainfall amounts do not look particularly heavy, it will
continue the pattern of cloudy and wet as we head towards the end
of September.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday night)...

The most inclement conditions associated with a front working
across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) should peak early this
morning, at least when it comes to the very gusty gap winds
ongoing over Bristol Bay in particular. Winds currently gusting
upwards of 40 mph between Iliamna and Koliganek should gradually
subside through this evening as the front falls apart and the
parent low begins to shift inland near the Kuskokwim Mountains
this evening. Unfortunately, the reprieve from drenching rainfall
will not come so early. The entire low will essentially stall out
as it elongates along the Southwest coast, keeping overcast and
showery conditions in play through at least Thursday evening. At
the same time, northwest winds supported by persistent cold air
advection and a tight southwest to northeast pressure gradient
will begin to creep up towards the coast and along the northern
AKPen on Thursday morning. Northwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 mph
(and perhaps a bit higher for southern Bristol Bay) will be
possible with these winds along the coast Thursday morning, but
should diminish as the day progresses. In addition, expect shower
activity to decrease in coverage by Thursday night as the low
finally pulls away and into the western Gulf.

Looking towards Friday, the limited impacts from what's currently
Typhoon Kulap should begin to be felt over Southwest. The (by
then fully extratropical) low's weakening, occluded frontal
system will approach the Southwest coast with modestly increasing
southeast winds and rain beginning by late Friday night.
Fortunately, the massive low over the Bering itself is still not
expected to reach Southwest, and the recovery efforts in the wake
of Merbok are not expected to be especially disrupted by this
second storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday night)...

In the near term, the immediate attention across the region will
initially be focused on the corridor of gusty, gale force winds
currently pushing across the central Aleutians and Bering. These
winds are occurring west of a large upper low lumbering slowing
northeast near Bristol Bay. A finger of seasonably cool low level
temperatures continues to push into the Bering west of the low,
and this cold air advection is helping to support the gusts into
or near gale force along central and eastern portions of the
Aleutian Chain, as well as up over the Pribilofs. These gusty
northwest winds should persist along the southern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPen) and eastern Aleutians for the next day or so as the low
nearly stalls out over Southwest. However, winds should diminish
late in the day Thursday as the low continues to fill and
eventually drift towards the Gulf.

Attention shifts quickly from there to an extremely intense storm
system expected to take shape over the western Bering and
Aleutians between Thursday and Friday. By Thursday morning, the
current tropical cyclone moving over the Northwest Pacific,
Typhoon Kulap, will complete its transition into an intensely
powerful extratropical low. This low is expected to interact
favorably with a separate upper trough moving west out of
Kamchatka, with the core of the then non-tropical low is expected
to phase strongly with this second upper feature during the
morning on Thursday. At the surface, this dynamic interaction
should foster rapid deepening of the system's surface low, perhaps
reaching peak intensity between 940 and 950 mb early Thursday
morning as it enters the southwestern Bering. Southeast winds
along the low's leading frontal structure will increase to high
end storm force across the western Aleutians by midday Thursday,
with gusts well into Hurricane force expected. Winds will flip to
westerly after a short lull as descending, cool air wraps into the
south side of the low as is continues past Shemya. Peak gusts
with this second blast of winds could approach 80 to 90 kts (or
around 100 mph) over Shemya and Attu late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. The High Wind Watch for the western
Aleutians has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning with this
package now that confidence for the very strong winds has greatly
increased.

Looking into Friday, the entire low will begin to stall out and
weaken as it's occluded front wraps around the center multiple
times and as the system becomes vertically stacked. What will
briefly be a Hurricane force low should weaken back to storm force
as it slows to a crawl west of the Pribilofs. This should
thankfully keep most of the wind field out over water for most of
the day on Friday, with the strongest winds in gale force range
mainly continuing to impact the central/western Aleutian Chain
through Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Looking ahead in the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in a decent agreement, but begin to diverge in the
specific details towards the end of the period. The main feature
heading into the weekend will be a deep area of low pressure
moving through Bering Sea from remnants of Kulap. This system
continues to bring strong winds and moderate to heavy rain along
and ahead of the front across the Aleutian Chain, Pribilof
Islands, and Southwest Alaska. By Sunday, the low turns southeast
and weakens as it tracks towards the Alaska Peninsula. Another
storm system, albeit weaker, approaches the central and western
Aleutians with the next round of wind and rain for early next
week. Unsettled weather continues into Tuesday as a North Pacific
low lifts toward the Kamchatka Peninsula. However, models diverge
significantly in the low placement and strength. Meanwhile, a
transient ridge of high pressure provides a brief break of drier
weather early Saturday over Southcentral. The aforementioned
Bering front will then shift into the northern gulf and then into
the southern mainland for a return of cool, cloudy, and rainy
conditions.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 191.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 177 178.
Gale Warning 119 120 125 131 132 136 137 138 141 155 160
165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185 351 352 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...MF