Storm Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

771 
FZAK62 PAFC 140241 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141515-
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 60N 163W will weaken and move inland. A 1002 mb 
low at 56N 168E will deepen to 976 mb and move to 60N 178W. A 960
mb low will move to 50N 173E Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain. 
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NW 10 to 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 to 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 32 to 48 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
641 PM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

063 
FZAK62 PAFC 141113
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150145-
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 59N 174E will deepen to 976 mb and move to 60N 
178W Wed afternoon and move inland Thursday afternoon. A 953 mb 
low will move to 50N 173E Thursday afternoon. This low will deepen
to 946 mb Fri morning and will be near 56N 177E.

$$

PKZ411-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt...except N of 57 N, W wind 45 to 55 kt. 
Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 55 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

360 
FZAK62 PAFC 141437 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150315-
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 59N 174E will deepen to 976 mb and move to 60N 
178W Wed afternoon and move inland Thursday afternoon. A 953 mb 
low will move to 50N 173E Thursday afternoon. This low will deepen
to 946 mb Fri morning and will be near 56N 177E.

$$

PKZ411-150315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt...except N of 57 N, W wind 45 to
55 kt.  Seas 9 to 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 55 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE up to 25 kt in the
afternoon.  Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 35 to 50 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 30 to 48 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
637 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 38 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

222 
FZAK62 PAFC 142344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151315-
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low at 57N 171E will deepen to 977 mb and move to 60N
177W Wed evening then move inland Thursday afternoon. A 953 mb low 
will move to 51N 173W Thursday afternoon. This low will deepen to 946
mb Friday afternoon and be located at about 61N 176W.

$$

PKZ411-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 21 to 36 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 23
to 38 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 30 to 45 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 11 to
18 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

422 
FZAK62 PAFC 151132
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160145-
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb at 62N 169W weakens to 986 mb as it moves inland across 
western Alaska through Thu morning. A 951 mb low moves to 51N 174E
Thu afternoon, and deepens to 944 mb at 57N 177E Fri morning. The low
then moves to 64N 171W at 958 mb Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt becoming SW 50 to 65 kt after
midnight. Except W of 176E, NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. 
Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 19 to 34 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 32 to 47 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind up to 20 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 to 60 kt increasing to 55 to 70 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 22 to 37 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt diminishing to 45 to 60 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 77 kts. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 18 to 33 ft
in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKDT Tue Sep 13 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

On satellite imagery there is a decaying low over the Y-K Delta
with the remnants of an occlusion wrapped into it and spread
across the state. The longwave pattern is highly amplified and
features a trough axis over the Alaska Peninsula. There is a jet
core of 130 knots south of Dutch Harbor. On radar there is light
precipitation over portions of SW Alaska and Southcentral Alaska.
Also on satellite imagery although distant this morning, there are
multiple tropical systems in the West Pacific Basin. The one of
keen interest is Tropical Storm Merbok. Merbok will be the next
tropical to impact the Aleutians when it does become extra
tropical.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in decent agreement through the next 24 hrs. Then model
divergence emerges in the northern Bering and in the Northwest
Pacific. The global models all have a major low pushing across the
Bering followed by Merbok becoming extratropical later this week
and moving into the Bering. But the track and the intensity for
both lows is not totally dialed in yet. As the model data updates
expect the forecast to be adjusted.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light rain has fallen over night and early this morning. On
the Kenai Radar (PAHG) continues to ping onto light precipitation
over northern Cook Inlet this morning. Cigs will bounce around
and light showers are possible at times. Low level wind shear has
been added to the TAF again and is actively being monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
2: Today through Thu morning)...

Southerly flow continues today across the area with a couple of
shortwaves moving through the area producing areas of showers.
The first shortwave is near the coast this morning and will move
inland early today. A stronger negatively tilted shortwave will
quickly move northward enhancing precipitation across Prince
William Sound today and towards the Seward area. Another one to
two inches of rain is expected across Prince William Sound
through Wednesday. By this afternoon this shortwave will push
inland and begin to weaken but widespread showers are still
expected across much of Southcentral through this evening. Winds
will be relatively light, however some gusty southerly winds are still
expected across the Copper River Valley through this afternoon.
As we head into Wednesday the flow weakens as the upper level
trough moves across the area. Showers are still expected across
the region but coverage and intensity will decrease as we head
through the day on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday clouds
may begin to clear which may set up some areas of patchy fog.
However, confidence is low on where this may occur so kept it out
of the forecast for now. Thursday looks to be the nicest day of
the week with a mostly dry day and some sunshine possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday morning)...

A vertically stacked low centered over Kipnuk this morning will
continue to occlude and drift towards Bristol Bay over the next
day. Bands of showers will continue to rotate around the low
center, with most areas likely to receive multiple showers
throughout the day today. Shower coverage will decrease on
Wednesday with the exception of southern Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula, where onshore flow and coastal convergence
should keep the rain going through the day.

A storm forming today south of the Gulf of Anadyr will send it's
front east and into Southwest Alaska Wednesday evening. Southerly
to southwesterly winds will increase in conjunction with the rain,
which could be moderate to heavy at times. The front will move
slowly into the Interior, and finally out of the region by Friday
morning. Behind the front, onshore winds will persist with
occasional showers, but also occasional clearing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday morning...

An occluding low over the Kuskokwim Delta will keep winds slightly
elevated at Small Craft through the next 24 hours over the eastern
Bering. Focus then shifts to a rapidly strengthening low emerging
south of the Gulf of Anadyr this afternoon and into the Western
Bering on Wednesday. A corridor of storm force winds are expected
in the offshore zones around 58N latitude. The storm will also
increase southwesterly winds to 30 kts for the Pribilofs, eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Thursday morning.
Widespread rain will accompany the front.

A major storm is expected to impact the western Bering/Aleutians
starting Thursday afternoon. This storm is the remnants of
Tropical Storm Merbok and is expected to become a potentially
hurricane force extra-tropical low as it taps into colder air over
the Western Bering. Model consensus on the low track has improved
significantly with the cross-over point between the Pacific and
Bering somewhere between Shemya and Amchitka. Temperature
differences across the low center are around 13-17 degrees C over
a 50 mile stretch, leading to an exceptionally baroclinic system.
High end storm force to hurricane force winds are likely, there
are just minor differences to work out on where the corridor of
the strongest winds will be. After the low crosses into the Bering
the overall track becomes less certain on Friday. Some solutions
have the low tracking into the Norton Sound, while others track it
into the Kuskokwim Delta, either way the Pribilof Islands and
Southwest Coastline will have gale to storm force winds on Friday.

&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering/Aleutians...Gales are likely around a low that moves
through the Northern Bering Sea on Thursday, with seas up to 20
ft. Thursday afternoon through Saturday, a strong North Pacific
low moves across the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. Broad areas
of gales are very likely across most of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands, and the potential remains for sustained storm
force winds and hurricane force gusts. Seas around 20 to 30 ft.

Gulf of Alaska...Confidence is moderate that winds will be less
than 35 kt and seas less than 20 ft. There may be localized areas
of gales in the Northern Gulf on Saturday, depending on whether a
developing low is strong enough to produce a barrier jet and
enhance winds out of Kamishak Gap.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Expect generally unsettled weather through the extended period,
with brief breaks possible as transient ridges move across
Southcentral Alaska early Friday and across the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands on Monday.

The biggest story continues to be the interaction of a Northern
Bering low with the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm
15W or "Merbok." Models have come into better agreement since
yesterday, increasing our confidence in the strength and track of
these storms. The consensus is that the Northern Bering low will
weaken by Friday, then become subsumed into the remnants of Merbok
in the Southern Bering Sea. The resulting low looks to bring
strong winds and heavy rain over much of the Central and Eastern
Bering Sea as well as the Pribilof Islands and the Central and
Eastern Aleutians. As the low approaches Southwest Alaska Friday
morning, high surf and coastal flooding become concerns. The
influx of southerly to southwesterly gales into Southwest Alaska
is a favorable pattern for coastal flooding, though the speed of
this low and the relatively short duration of strong winds could
reduce concerns. Details remain uncertain for now, especially
given model differences in the track of the low. For Southcentral
Alaska, the fronts from each of these two systems will contribute
to cloudy and rainy conditions. With the low tracking northward
along the Southwest coast, a tightening pressure gradient could
also lead to enhanced easterly winds through Turnagain Arm and
other gaps.

Winds should gradually subside through Saturday as the low
continues north and moves out of the region. Rain showers will
likely continue through Saturday as a longwave trough and several
shortwaves move over the region. By Monday, the weather looks to
become more active as two separate systems enter the region. For
the Southern Mainland, a surface low looks to develop off the base
of the upper level longwave trough and move into the Gulf of
Alaska. Further west, a low in Russia looks to push its gale-force
front into the Western Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 185 412. Storm 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RLC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...KC