Storm Warning 73, NWS Anchorage, AK

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 072302
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-081145-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 mb low 140 nm east of Middleton Island moves to 100 nm
northeast of Middleton Island at 1001 mb Thu night. The low opens
into a trough of low pressure Fri morning which remains across 
the North Gulf Coast through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-081145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt except NE 30 kt in the afternoon. E of
Middleton Island, becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt except 25 kt S of Middleton Island. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-081145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of Resurrection Bay. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-081145-
Resurrection Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-081145-
Prince William Sound-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-081145-
Port Valdez-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-081145-
Valdez Narrows-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-081145-
Valdez Arm-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-081145-
Passage Canal-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-081145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-081145-
Barren Islands East-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-081145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-081145-
Chiniak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-081145-
Marmot Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-081145-
Shelikof Strait-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 9 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-081145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-081145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-081145-
Kachemak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A cold upper level low remains over Western and Southwest
mainland Alaska today. This is keeping the jet stream well south
of the mainland of the state. It does go into Southeast Alaska
where it is supporting a surface low that looks rather impressive
on satellite, but will weaken as it moves toward the north Gulf
coast. There is an upper level wave moving into the north Gulf
coast and Copper River Basin today which is the source of the
snow in those regions, except for Southeast Prince William Sound
where it is warm enough for rain.

The Bethel area really cleared out today with sunshine around a
bit of the Kuskokwim Delta. However, lower cloud streamers off the
ice pack are over the Kuskokwim Delta coast and will move back
toward Bethel tonight. These streamers are extending from the ice
edge all the way to the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians
bringing snow showers to those areas as well.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are overall in good synoptic agreement through the
weekend. There progression of a 500 mb trough and developing or
non-development of a cut- off low in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday
are the main short term discrepancies. The main impact this
difference will have is on the potential for light snowfall
Thursday night into Friday for part of Southcentral including
Anchorage. For example, the NAM is more aggressive with bringing
in a little snow, but the GFS is not too different with the
snowfall, but is keeping it out of Anchorage altogether.

Models do start do diverge a bit more early next week mainly due
to the difference in handling of a large upper level low in the
Arctic. The differences in the way this low develops and moves
will impact the other systems over Southern Alaska and into the
Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The gusty southeast winds should diminish this evening and
eventually shift to a light northerly direction overnight. VFR
conditions are expected to continue. There will be some snow
showers in the vicinity late evening through overnight with an
upper level wave moving in from the southeast. However there
should be little or no snow at the terminal itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southerly flow stemming from longwave troughing over Southwest
Alaska persists through the rest of today and into tonight.
Showery conditions along the North Gulf Coast will continue today into
tonight, diminishing by the very early morning hours tomorrow.
Thursday should see improved conditions as a slight ridge moves
over Southcentral, including clearer skies and warmer
temperatures, reaching into the low-to-mid 40's in most places.
The trough over Southwest pushes into the Gulf Thursday night,
with cold air wrapping around the backside, producing gusty winds
through Shelikof Strait and out of Kamishak Bay. This cold air
spills into Southcentral Thursday night into Friday; expect
Friday's daytime temperatures to be cooler in comparison, only
reaching into the mid 30's across the region. Reintroduction of
cold air means chance for snow showers, even with temperatures
reaching above freezing, the upper levels are still cold enough to
keep all snow likely. That being said, there is still quite a bit
of inconsistency between model guidance regarding snowfall,
especially over Anchorage and the Mat-Valley, as well as portions
of western Kenai. Anticipate any snow showers on Friday to be
light and produce little to no accumulation, with the exception of
Thompson Pass who could see 1 to 2 inches of new snow
accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday afternoon)...

A general troughing pattern will dominate the Southwest region
over the next couple of days. The main feature is an Arctic low
that continues to move southward over the eastern Bering Sea. An
upper level wave and associated surface low currently positioned
south of Sand Point interacts with the Arctic low as it lifts
northward. As this happens, weak shortwaves pinwheeling on the
southern end of the Arctic low will work in concert with low level
convergence, bringing periods of snow showers for the coastal and
inland areas. The Lower Kuskokwim Valley and eastern corridor of
Bristol Bay can see 1-2 inches of snow tonight into Thursday, with
less accumulations elsewhere. Most of the snow showers will be
favored for the upslope areas along the Aleutian/Alaska Ranges and
Kuskokwim Mountains. As we head into late Friday, the trough axis
shifts eastward with drier conditions for areas of south of
Bristol Bay as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Weak
shortwaves riding on top of the ridge may bring periods of snow
along the Y-K Delta coast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a combination of colder air aloft, weak synoptic
forcing, and tightening pressure will strengthen the northerly
winds funneling through the usual gaps of passes of the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday afternoon)...

A general troughing pattern will dominate the forecast area over
the next couple of days. A series of upper level waves embedded in
the cold, northerly flow over the relatively warm waters will
help generate widespread snow showers across the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands. One these waves is currently sliding south of
Sand Point while another wave is following a similar trajectory
south of Amchitka. A band of snow showers will quickly pass
overhead for the Pribilof Islands late tonight into Thursday
morning, with little to no accumulations expected. Drier
conditions will commence beginning on Friday as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the Bering Sea. By late Friday, a North
Pacific low lifts toward the southern Bering Sea, while another
low lifts north toward the Kamchatka Peninsula. The blocking ridge
keeps both of these features away from the forecast area, with
the exception of high end small craft winds for the eastern
Aleutian Islands and the western Bering Sea on Saturday.
Otherwise, minimal impacts can be expected as we head into the
weekend.

&&

Marine (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: An Eastern Gulf low dissipates for Sunday. High
pressure moves across the Western Gulf through Monday. Forecast
confidence is good, except for variations in wind developments
around Kodiak Island. Gusty Northwest winds with areas of gales
through Kamishak Bay, Barren Islands and around Sitkinak extends
into the Western Gulf, diminishing Sunday. Seas to 12 feet across
the Western Gulf, subsiding.

Bering Sea: A front over the Northern Bering moves into the
Chukchi Sea for Sunday. A ridge across the Bering moves into the
Mainland late Sunday. A well developed North Pacific low and front
approaches the Western Aleutians for Monday. Forecast confidence
is good. Widespread gusty Southwest winds with areas of gales
diminish across the Northern Bering Sunday. Seas to 15 feet,
subsiding. Gusty Easterly winds with areas of high end gales along
the Aleutians become Southeasterly as they spread into the Bering
through Monday. Seas build to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the
Aleutians on Sunday, and to 15 feet over the Western and Central
Bering through Monday. Freezing spray is expected in ice free
waters over the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutians and Southern Bering,
and also around Nunivak Island through Sunday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A strong blocking ridge will build over mainland Alaska Sunday
through Monday. The big question is how long it will remain in
place. Ensembles and most of the operational models indicate the
ridge holding through most of the work week. The GFS is the
outlier with its depiction of a progressive wave pattern, with
the ridge moving to Southeast Alaska by Wednesday. Based on the
presence of a strong ridge, expect dry conditions over southern
Alaska, with warming temperatures as we head through the week.
Skies will be mostly clear, so expect a large diurnal range in
temperatures from early morning lows to late afternoon highs,
on the order of 20 to 25 degrees. As a result, expect a daily
freeze/thaw, as is typical for this time of year.

Meanwhile, a long-wave trough will settle over the Bering Sea
and Aleutians, with a steady supply of storms tracking across
the region. Thus, expect wet and windy conditions through the
week. Depending on the position and strength of the ridge over
mainland Alaska, some of these systems could reach the Southwest
Alaska coast, especially late in the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130 131 138.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 130 139 160 180 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/SEB