Storm Warning 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAFC 040025
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041315-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 55 nm north of Dutch Harbor moves into northern Alaska 
at 1008 mb Sat afternoon. Its front moves into the Gulf of Alaska 
through Sat afternoon. A 978 mb western Bering low complex and a 994
mb North Pacific low merge to form a 972 mb low 20 nm north of 
Shemya Sat afternoon. Its front moves into the Central Aleutians Sat
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt decreasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 25
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 
ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041315-
Bristol Bay-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt . Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after 
midnight.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 45 kt
becoming SW 55 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft
subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041315-
Unalaska Bay-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to variable less than 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041315-
Adak to Kiska-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041315-
Kiska to Attu-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow with rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt except S of Cape Newenham becoming SW 55 kt 
after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Freezing
spray in the morning. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft subsiding to 12 
ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Freezing spray. Seas in ice free waters 2 
ft. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Freezing spray in the morning. Seas in ice free
waters 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Freezing spray. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ185-041315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 PM AKST Thu Mar 3 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas in ice free 
waters 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 041302
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-050215-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 mb low 65 nm northwest of Cape Newenham accelerates northward 
and out of the northern Bering by Fri evening. A 980 mb North Pacific
low moves to 200 nm north of Shemya through Sun morning while 
remaining at 980 mb.

$$

PKZ150-050215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. 
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-050215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 25 kt 
early becoming W 10 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable
wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-050215-
Bristol Bay-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-050215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-050215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-050215-
Unalaska Bay-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft 
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-050215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-050215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-050215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-050215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-050215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-050215-
Adak to Kiska-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. 
Seas 13 ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-050215-
Kiska to Attu-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Bering side, seas 9 ft building to 18 ft
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 21 ft. Snow with rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ179-050215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-050215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 21 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-050215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt in the morning becoming W. Seas in ice 
free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-050215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 AM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E of St Matthew Island, NE wind 25 kt becoming W in the 
afternoon. W of St Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free 
waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKST Wed Mar 2 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...The pattern continues to shift from
relative quiet to more active. First we can look at the upper
level jet. At 300 mb (30,000') the jet is moving along quickly
from west to east across the North Pacific at nearly 120 kts. It
then takes a sharp turn south of the Eastern Aleutians at about
90 kts. It then returns from south to north into the Gulf of AK
at 90 kts. Overall, this jet is helping to carve out a very broad
trough stretching from the Western Bering all the way to near
Kodiak Island. Within this trough, there are several waves moving
through causing some weather at the surface.

The first low is fully occluded and weakening over the Bering Sea.
The second low is reaching maximum strength around 990 mb near
Pilot Point. It is bringing a combination of rain and snow across
much of Bristol Bay and the YK-Delta. It is also making for some
breezy east to southeast winds about 20-30 mph for SW AK. For
Southcentral, quiet conditions persist. Some fog plagued Kenai
early this morning, while stratus held on as long as it could over
the Copper River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models have come into much better agreement,
especially regarding how they handle the surface low that develops
near Dutch Harbor Thu evening. The ECMWF slowly trended towards
the GFS/NAM over the past several model runs. Nearly all
operational models now agree this storm will deepen into the low
970 mb range about 150 miles southeast of Saint Paul. While this
agreement is leading to generally high forecast confidence, there
are a few details that remain uncertain. As the low wraps up late
Thu into early Fri, high winds are expected for Dutch Harbor and
over to Cold Bay/False Pass. The exact direction of these winds
will be important for whether or not they reach High Wind Warning
criteria (75 mph). The other variable with this system is how it
will interact with the sea ice and the coastline. Please see the
Special Weather Statements for more details on that.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and north winds will persist at the surface.
Turnagain Arm winds will increase over the Arm through this
evening, which could lead to some low level wind shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday afternoon)...

A front extending from a Bristol Bay low continues to track across
the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty southeasterly winds for Kodiak will
diminish this afternoon as the front continues to push
northeastward into the Kenai Peninsula and then Southcentral.
Subsequently, precipitation and winds will start to ramp up for
the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral tonight through
Thursday. With this system, Prince William Sound and the north
Gulf coast are expected to see a mix of both rain and snow showers,
while mostly rain showers are anticipated for Kodiak Island. The
western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl should stay mostly dry
due to southeasterly flow creating downsloping against the
mountains. Turnagain Arm winds will increase Thursday morning as
the front and an upper-level shortwave move along the coast.
Winds and precipitation will slightly decrease late Thursday into
early Friday as a weak upper-level ridge builds in behind the
front.

By Friday morning, another front will already have reached Kodiak
Island and will continue pushing northeastward over the Kenai
Peninsula and then Southcentral. Similar to the aforementioned
system, Turnagain Arm winds will increase again Friday morning, as
will precipitation for Kodiak, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
Prince William Sound. Mostly rain is expected near sea level. As
we head further into the weekend, a much more exciting
precipitation event sets up for Southcentral. A surface low from
the North Pacific will track towards Kodiak Island late Friday
night and then hug the Southcentral coast as it moves along
towards Prince William Sound by Saturday afternoon. The
combination of a strong upper-level shortwave, northerly surface
winds with the low, and broad southwesterly flow at upper levels
funneling in moisture will likely lead to widespread snow inland
and heavy precipitation along the coast Saturday morning and into
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weak low in Bristol Bay and accompanying front are pushing
northward onto the Southwest Coast bringing areas of light snow
which will move inland through tonight. Accumulations up to an
inch and a half can be expected for areas west of Dillingham as
well as near Iliamna. Southeast cross-barrier flow has warmed
temperatures into the upper 30s this afternoon over southern parts
of Bristol Bay in the lee of the Aleutian Range, leading to rain
showers where precipitation develops in spite of the downslope
hole. The front will weaken as it moves into the Kuskokwim Delta,
keeping new snow accumulation to 1 inch or less mainly along the
coast.

A short break in the weather is expected Thursday morning as weak
ridging transits Southwest Alaska. A stronger low pressure system
entering the eastern Bering Sea Thursday afternoon will bring
strong southeasterly winds gusting up to 50 mph and the potential
for blowing snow along portions of the Southwest Coast. Snow may
possibly mix with rain briefly along the northern coast of Bristol
Bay Thursday night as southerly flow raises temperatures into the
mid 30s. Strong southeasterly flow will dominate through early
Friday morning, resulting in downslope drying and warming in the
lee of the Kuskokwim Mountains and Aleutian Range, keeping most
precipitation focused along the eastern slopes of the Kuskokwim
Mountains and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Despite temperatures in
the lower 30s expected along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, warm
enough for falling snow to be wet and dense, the strong winds
associated with the low will have the potential to produce low
visibility conditions as low as one half mile Thursday night
through Friday evening. See the Winter Weather Advisory issued for
the Kuskokwim Delta for more details. Warmer temperatures near
Bristol Bay should limit the potential for blowing snow further
south, though likely will not prevent it entirely.

As the low tracks northward over the Kuskokwim Delta Friday
morning, the strongest corridor of winds, moves ashore on the
northern Bristol Bay coast with gusts to 60 mph. There is some
concern for elevated water levels developing as a result, though
the main expected impact is that the wind is likely to push the
main sea ice pack, which is separated from the shore by an area
of open water, back toward the shore. See the Marine Weather
Statement issued for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta for
further information regarding the potentially dangerous near-
shore ice conditions. Southerly winds diminish through Friday as
the low exits north. Relatively benign conditions return Saturday
as a surface ridge moves in from the Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Saturday)...

A weakening low pressure over the western Bering Sea will drift
out of the forecast area by late tonight. Snow showers will
continue drifting across the Bering in the mean time, impacting
the Pribilofs and the Aleutians at times as they move across.

Attention shifts to a developing low expected to move across the
eastern Aleutians from the North Pacific on Thursday afternoon.
The low will bring primarily rain to the eastern Aleutians as
strong southeast winds bring warm air northward on Thursday. As
the low crosses the Aleutian Chain into the eastern Bering, winds
will shift out of the west to northwest. Cold advection and rapid
pressure rises on the south side of the low will help to develop
a core of storm force winds that crosses the eastern Aleutians on
Thursday afternoon. While Dutch Harbor have the potential to see
hurricane force gusts, the potential for strong winds increases as
the storm tracks northeast, making Akutan a prime spot to see
these winds on the current forecast track. A High Wind Watch
remains in effect with the potential for 75 mph wind gusts across
the eastern Aleutians. Strong winds are also likely to be
experienced across the southern end of the Alaska Peninsula,
though winds are expected to be westerly, an unfavorable direction
for realizing hurricane force wind gusts there. Winds will
quickly diminish Thursday night as the low continues northeast.

A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for the Pribilof
Islands as the low passes to the east on Friday evening. The
western edge of a band of snow and gusty northerly winds skirt the
Pribilofs, likely leading to periods of reduced visibility from
blowing snow. As the low exits north, surface ridging fills its
wake, leading to calmer conditions with scattered snow showers across
most of the Bering. Early Saturday, another low tracks near the
western Aleutians, bringing snow and gale force winds.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A well developed low and front moves over the
Gulf through Monday. The low tracks along the front. Forecast
confidence is high. High end Southerly gales move across the
Western Gulf, diminishing Saturday. An Easterly gale force barrier
jet along the North Gulf Coast diminishes Saturday. Seas to 14
feet, subsiding. A new well developed low and front approach the
Southwest Gulf for Monday. High end Northeasterly gales spread
ahead of the low around Kodiak Island to the Alaska Peninsula
Coast Monday. Seas building to 16 feet along the Alaska Peninsula
Coast for Monday.

Bering Sea: A well developed Western Aleutian low moves over
Anadyr. Its front moves over the Central Aleutians and Bering
through Monday. Forecast confidence is high. The wind wrapped low
bring widespread gales with areas of storm force winds across the
Western and Central Aleutians and Bering, diminishing Monday.Seas
building to 26 feet, subsiding. A new front approaches the Western
Aleutians and Bering on Monday. High end Southeasterly gales with
areas of storm force winds ahead of the front. Seas building to
16 feet over the Western Aleutians Monday. A well developed low
moves along the Alaska Peninsula Coast Monday. Seas building to 16
feet from the Eastern Aleutians along the Alaska Peninsula Coast.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

The longwave pattern is expected to amplify over the long term
with a ridge building over the east Pacific and broad trough
remaining steadfast over the Kamchatka Peninsula. The models show
negative height anomalies at 500 mb over the Western Bering and NW
Pacific for much of the period. Whereas, the models have positive
height anomalies over Mainland and the Gulf Of Alaska through
March 13th. These positive height anomalies extend into the Bering
and Chukchi Sea by March 7th. A series of lows will rotate
through the base of the mean western Aleutians trough likely
keeping conditions generally unsettled into next week from the
Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula. Above average temperatures
should prevail across much of Mainland Alaska through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155 195.
		 High Wind Watch 185.
MARINE...Gale 130-132 150 155 173 174 179 185.
		 Storm 160-172 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/PJS