Storm Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 290017
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291530-
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 50N 178E moves over Kamchatka at 991 mb for 
Sun afternoon. Its front moves over the Western Bering by 
Sun afternoon. A 989 mb North Pacific low moves to 51N 173W 
at 966 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front moves over the Aleutians 
through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291530-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Widespread 
rain and snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291530-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
Heavy freezing spray north and east of 57N 170W.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 to 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray north and east of 57N 170W. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 to 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
4 to 9 ft.

$$

888 
FZAK62 PAFC 291238
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300215-
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 mb low at 53N 175E moves over Kamchatka at 991 mb for Sun 
afternoon. Its front moves over the Western Bering by Sun 
afternoon. A 965 mb North Pacific low moves to 51N 172W Sun 
afternoon. Mon afternoon the low weakens to 979 mb and moves to 56N 
176E mb. 

$$

PKZ411-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and widespread
snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0 to 5 ft.
Heavy freezing spray in the morning near the ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
Heavy freezing spray after midnight near the ice edge.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11
ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to 9 ft.

$$

050 
FZAK62 PAFC 300057
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301445-
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low at 56N 170E moves over Kamchatka at 991 mb for Sun 
afternoon. A 965 mb North Pacific low moves to 52N 171W at 967 mb
Sun afternoon and then to 58N 179E at 980 mb Mon afternoon. Its
front crosses the central Aleutians Sun morning. A second front
moves over the eastern Aleutians Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray
near the ice edge. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
near the ice edge. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray
near the ice edge. Rain, snow and light freezing rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray
near the ice edge.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 to 12
ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7
ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...The upper levels tell the general
weather story over southern AK. Starting over the Bering, the 300
mb (30,000') jet drives from south to north at 80 kts towards the
Kamchatka Peninsula. It climbs over a ridge of high pressure and
then comes back from north to south at 90 kts. The next portion of
the jet moves from the North Pacific on a slight SE to NW track.
It moves into the mainland over Prince William Sound at 80 kts. It
then climbs over the North American ridge at 130 kt before exiting
into Canada.

The sensible weather under this jet can be broken down into 3
parts. The first is a fairly active storm pattern for the Western
Aleutians. Systems continue to bring warm air, gusty winds, and a
mix of rain and snow as they clip through the area. The second
item is a closed off upper level high over the central Bering.
This is keeping conditions rather quiet over SW AK. It is helping
to usher in another round of polar air with gusty NE winds across
the YK-Delta. With temperatures hovering around 10 below zero and
N-NE winds gusting 30-40 mph, this has created wind chills around
35 below zero early today.

For Southcentral, the jet has served to ferry moisture towards the
mainland. The fully occluded low is now spinning and drifting near
53N. Several weak to moderate waves have detached pushed from the
coast through inland areas. These systems are not bringing much in
the way of thermal advection or strong winds as they move inland.
Thus, nearly all locations have been able to stay cold enough for
snow, with the exception of areas like Whittier and Cordova along
the immediate coast. Widespread snow has been falling through much
of the night through the early portion of the day. Accumulations
have generally been around 3-5" snow far. Blowing snow has been a
concern across the western Kenai Peninsula, especially right along
the coast, with sustained winds in excess of 20 mph.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in decent agreement through the short term (Fri
evening). Therefore, overall forecast confidence is moderate to
high. There remains uncertainty in how the snow works back over
many of the population centers (to include Anchorage) this
evening. As an upper level trough dives into SW AK, it will take
on a negative tilt. With all the moisture over the northern Gulf,
the result is a favorable set-up for snow for nearly all areas.
However, trying to pinpoint exactly where the highest
accumulations will be remains a challenge with subtle differences
between the models. In general, changes were kept to a minimum
with this forecast package with only minor updates using some hi-
res guidance.

Late Fri into Sat, the models have all been struggling with the
evolution of the polar trough/associated upper level low as it
emerges in the western Gulf. Meanwhile, a piece of energy slides
north into the eastern Gulf and attempts to wrap back towards the
cold air by late Sat. Originally the GEM/EC were much farther to
the east, while the American models favored a more western track.
It looks like they are moving toward a consensus with the low
nearly due south of Prince William Sound.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions should hold as predominantly VFR for a window
this afternoon/evening as the snow has shifted to the west of the
terminal. However, we expect it to turn during the late evening
hours. Timing on this remains quite uncertain as does the
intensity of the snow. This will impact how low cig/vis get
overnight. As snow moves off Fri, conditions should return to VFR
around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper-level North Pacific low moving northward is continuing to
overspread precipitation across Southcentral Alaska. Snow has
stopped in the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai areas, but will pick back
up this evening and into tonight. Visibilities on roadways may be
reduced at times when snow is falling due to the light snow being
easily transportable in the wake of cars. The associated inverted
trough is producing gusty winds through Thompson Pass and through
Cook Inlet, mainly through western Kenai. Snow and blowing snow
will continue to be a resultant through Friday morning for both of
these areas as the snow is light and can be easily transportable.
Heavies snow through Thompson Pass is expected to continue this
evening before tapering off and becoming light tonight. Winds will
continue to be gusty beyond tomorrow and any transportable snow
may create reduced visibilities at times. Western Kenai will see
snow and pockets of isolated blowing snow across the inland areas
this evening into tonight, but the worst conditions will be near
Cook Inlet, more specifically from Nikiski to Anchor Point. Winter
Weather Advisories are still in effect for both areas until
tomorrow morning. A third Advisory is in effect for the Copper
Basin. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches along the Richardson
Highway near Glennallen are expected as well as blowing snow from
Paxson north to Isabel Pass.

Cold air will stay locked in over Southcentral as a polar trough
dives south across Southwest Alaska tonight. Precipitation across
Anchorage, Kenai, and the Mat-Su Valleys will end tomorrow as the
aforementioned low moves south of the Alaska Peninsula. However,
precipitation will continue across the north Gulf coast and
eastern Kenai into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday)...

A longwave ridge of high pressure remains over the Bering this
evening with a large upper low centered over the Gulf of Alaska.
Southwest remains wedged between these two features within a
regime of northeasterly flow aloft. This is helping to bring drier
conditions to Southwest and latest satellite imagery shows most
of the region is currently under clear skies. Into tonight high
pressure over the Bering will shift northward while low pressure
over the Gulf pivots toward Prince William Sound. A tightening
pressure gradient over Southwest is forecast during the overnight
hours with increasing winds to develop along with cold air
advection of 850 mb temperatures ranging from 15 below zero to 20
below zero. This will see colder temperatures develop tonight and
subsequent dangerous wind chills across the Kuskokwim Delta. A
region stretching from Kipnuk to Bethel are expected to experience
wind chills at or below minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit and an
advisory is in effect for the morning hours on Friday. The
synoptic pattern will change very little on Saturday, though an
upper low over the Gulf will begin to move ashore of the
Southcentral coast and become elongated over Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula. Windy conditions should persist across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta with winds across interior
Bristol Bay becoming lighter. Otherwise, clear conditions are
forecast to prevail across Southwest into the latter half of the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday)...

A weakening upper low drifting northward toward Kamchatka will
see its trailing front over the Central Aleutians gradually
dissipate while lifting into the western Bering later tonight.
Scattered showers and gale force winds with potential storm force
gusts will persist over the western Bering through the evening
hours before tapering off before midnight. Across the Alaska
Peninsula northerly winds will see gap winds through the bays and
passes gust to 50 knots or higher tonight into much of Friday with
a corresponding threat for heavy freezing spray.

Also on Friday the next North Pacific upper low will approach the
Aleutian Chain from the south. Increasing showers, potentially
mixed in with snow, will accompany the low's progress, which are
expected to expand in coverage over the Aleutians as the upper low
overspreads the Western and Central Aleutians. As the front
continues northward over the latter half of the day on Saturday an
occluded front will slowly track eastward across the Eastern
Aleutians before dissipating by Saturday night.

Further ahead into Sunday the pattern becomes more complicated as
one or two interacting low pressure systems bring a notable front
over the Aleutians with widespread showers stretching into the
Alaska Peninsula by Sunday night. A mix of rain and snow is
forecast with another round of gale to storm force winds to impact
the Aleutian Chain. Strong southerly warm air advection east of
Atka will likely see any snow quickly change over to rain.
However, colder temperatures to the west of Atka may support all
snow before warm air wraps counterclockwise around the low from
the Bering side.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A weak trough persists across the Northern Gulf through Tuesday.
Weak high pressure moves across the Southern Gulf through Tuesday.
Forecast confidence is good. A front enters the Western Gulf for
Tuesday. Gusty winds ahead of the front. Seas to 15 feet over the
Southern Gulf through Tuesday. Seas to 20 feet behind the front
along the Alaska Peninsula Coast for Tuesday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed low exits the Western Bering by Tuesday. Gales
diminish over the Western Bering, with 22 feet seas subsiding
Monday. Forecast confidence becomes mixed with the approach of two
low centers and their development through Tuesday. A well
developed low crosses the Central bering Monday and moves to the
Western Bering to dissipate Tuesday. Another well developed low
moves to the Southwest Bering by Tuesday. Gusty winds over the
Bering increase to gales with areas of storm force winds near the
lows, spreading into the Northern and Eastern Bering by Tuesday.
Seas building to 20 feet over the Bering through Tuesday. Seas to
20 feet on the Pacific side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The present Omega block pattern breaks down and gives way to a
broad upper-level gyre over the North Pacific and Bering, with
ridging to the east across the Gulf of Alaska and the southern
mainland for next week. Several shortwave troughs are expected to
rotate through the upper-level gyre, bringing periods of gusty
winds and a mix of rain and snow to the Bering/Aleutians. Despite
uncertainty in the timing and placement of any specific synoptic-
scale feature, the longwave ridge looks to progress slowly
eastward as each successive front pushes closer to and eventually
inland across Southwest Alaska. As a result, expect a gradual
transition to warmer temperatures and more active weather with
the potential for precipitation type issues across Southwest.

Southcentral looks to remain colder and drier with ridging
remaining in place for longer. However, there is some agreement
that a weak disturbance enters the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday,
which could produce some brief precipitation, primarily snow, for
Southcentral. Toward the end of the week, a warmer, wetter
regime makes a potential return, with chances for rain and mixed
precipitation type across Southcentral as stronger shortwaves
begin to make it further east.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 121 131 141.
		 Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 150 155 175-177 185.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 150 155 160 165 179
									  185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...NS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CQ