Storm Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

303 
FZAK52 PAFC 131350
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140330-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 946 mb North Pacific low 645 nm southwest of Adak slowly moves 
to 37 nm south of Shemya through Tuesday morning while weakening 
to 970 mb. Its front moves over the Aleutians through Sunday 
afternoon before overspreading the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night. 
A second front lifts across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska 
Peninsula Monday morning before intensifying over the northern 
Bering Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ150-140330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140330-
Bristol Bay-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt.
.THU...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-140330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140330-
Unalaska Bay-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 29 ft after
midnight.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140330-
Adak to Kiska-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...25 ft Pac side.
Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft Bering side...31 ft Pac side.
Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...31 ft Pac side. Rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140330-
Kiska to Attu-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-140330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-140330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
450 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

918 
FZAK52 PAFC 132334
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141230-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 949 mb North Pacific low 500 nm southwest of Adak weakens as it
moves 220 nm west of Shemya at 976 mb Tue afternoon. A 998 mb low
forms 70 nm east of St. Paul Island Mon afternoon and moves 30 nm
southeast of Kipnuk at 1003 mb Mon night before tracking inland. 
A North Pacific low moves to 150 nm southwest of Unalaska at 997 
mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-141230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15 kt
increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141230-
Bristol Bay-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt.
.THU...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-141230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141230-
Unalaska Bay-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 40 kt before midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt before midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141230-
Adak to Kiska-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft Bering side...30 ft Pac side.
Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 40 kt becoming SE in the afternoon.
Seas 21 ft Bering side...30 ft Pac side. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Bering side, seas 19 ft.
Pac side, seas 27 ft subsiding to 20 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141230-
Kiska to Attu-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt.
Seas 26 ft Bering side... 22 ft Pac side. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-141230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-141230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level shortwave and associated surface trough over Prince
William Sound continue to produce light snow in an area from the
Mat-Su Valleys east along the Southcentral Coast and over higher
elevations. Light snow is tapering off to scattered snow showers
along the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf, as these features
continue to lift northward. A few breaks in the cloud cover, along
with some sunshine, are also of note across Cook Inlet south to
Kodiak Island.

A second upper-level wave and associated surface low sit over
coastal Southwest Alaska this afternoon. These features are also
producing areas of light snow across this region along with some
gusty winds along the coast, closest to the center of circulation.

Farther west, a weak and transient ridge is parked over the
central Aleutians, providing for a rather quiet day weatherwise,
with the exception of a passing shower, from Unalaska to Adak. A
vertically stacked low near Shemya is keeping clouds and showers
over the western Aleutians along with northeasterly gales over the
western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement remains fairly decent ironing out the bigger
picture of a continued active pattern with good run to run
consistency through the short term. Given this, the current
forecast looks on track; however, subtle differences in the
position and timing of the various shortwaves embedded in the
upper-level flow persist. The first difference is that the NAM
continues to advertise a slight stronger wave moving over
Southwest Alaska for Monday while the GFS/EC/GEM weaken this
feature quickly as it pushes inland. While the outlier currently,
if the NAM does pan out, it would mean a longer duration of light
snow across Southwest for Monday prior to the next system arriving
late Monday into Tuesday. As for this next system, the NAM and
GEM continue to keep the stronger series of shortwaves a bit
farther south than the GFS and EC. The NAM is also the stronger of
the solutions, trying to strengthen each wave into their own
compact upper-level low. The farther north solutions would also
result in the stronger advection of warm air aloft over Southwest
Alaska and the western half of Southcentral Alaska, raising
precipitation type concerns, perhaps as far north as Anchorage and
Palmer. The NAM and GEM would still introduce a wintry mix over
Southwest, but keep slightly colder air place over Southcentral,
with a snowier solution. The GEM is the fastest solution, moving
the bulk of this system out of the area Tuesday morning, a good 12
hours earlier than other models.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Prevailing MVFR conditions with lower ceilings and reduced
visibility due to occasional light snow are expected to persist
through late Sunday night. Brief IFR conditions are possible by
Sunday morning as widespread light snow redevelops over the
terminal. The snow is expected to come to an end by early Sunday
afternoon. Southerly winds will remain light through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3...Tonight through Tue afternoon)...

An upper level shortwave trough continues to lift northward
through Southcentral through this evening. As a result, expect
flurries to continue throughout the Anchorage Bowl to Matanuska
Valley at least until the early evening hours when the axis of the
upper trough passes through. This will also result in a reduction
of the snowfall rates in and around Hatcher Pass this evening
with continued light snow through the overnight hours. Another
upper level shortwave in the overall flow is expected to lift
northward overnight that will work in tandem with another upper
level trough pushing eastward from Southwest Alaska. The two of
these will work together bringing more moisture northward as well
as add more lift into the atmosphere heading through the day
Sunday. Therefore, expect snowfall rates to increase for Hatcher
Pass where another 6 to 8 inches of snow may accumulate leading to
a storm total there of 12 to 18 inches. The big update this
forecast package was to bring likely snow into the Anchorage Bowl
for Sunday with up to a 0.5" for the west side of town with up to
1 inch on the Anchorage Hillside. This will also bring another
round of snow to the Mat-Su Valleys with 1 to 5 inches expected.
Highest amounts will be across the northern Susitna Valley (north
of Talkeetna).

Passage of the upper level trough is expected Sunday evening/night
which will largely end precipitation for all areas as drier air
and heights build over the area. With the westerly flow aloft,
current thinking is that any clouds in the area will be pushed up
against the Chugach Mountains which may help to keep the clouds
in place Sunday night into Monday morning without fully clearing
out. This of course is playing with the temperature forecast as
less clouds will cause temperatures to fall more whereas if it was
cloudier temperatures won't fall as much.

Lastly, another system is expected to move northward towards
Southcentral from south of Kodiak Island on Monday. For Kodiak
Island, current thinking is precipitation may start as snow with
little to no accumulation before changing over to rain as milder
air works in. As the system continues northward, another
widespread snowfall event favoring Hatcher Pass in terms of the
avalanche areas is expected for Monday night through Tuesday. Much
uncertainty continues to exist in terms of timing as well as
amounts and just how much warm air will come in with this system.
This will continue to be fine tuned over the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Tuesday)...

Light snow showers continue across Southwest Alaska tonight as a
weak surface low in the eastern Bering tracks slowly toward the
coast. The Kuskokwim Delta should see their last snowflakes from
this system around midnight as drier air sweeping across the
Southwest begins to shut off the snow showers from west to east.
By Sunday afternoon, only the western slopes of the Alaska Range
will be seeing light accumulation. In the wake of the low, dry air
and a transient will ridge will allow some portions of Southwest
to see briefly clearing skies before the next storm system moves
in. Monday morning, an occluded front reaches the Southwest coast
and provides a brief round of snow for Bristol Bay and the
potential for blowing snow to the Kuskokwim Delta. The snow turns
showery in the afternoon, with the front weakening as it moves
inland.

However, a second front with stronger upper-level support is
expected to push ashore Monday evening and reinvigorate
precipitation. A stronger push of warm air aloft is expected with
this front, leading to an uncertain precipitation type forecast
for Monday night. Precipitation is expected to start as snow, but
with low-level easterly flow expected ahead of the front, it will
be possible for cooler temperatures to hang on near the surface
while warmer air works in aloft, allowing for a brief change to a
wintry mix with some potential for freezing rain in Bristol Bay.
The main question with this will be timing, though, as
precipitation is expected to begin tapering off around the time
this change is expected to occur. The most likely locations for
any ice accumulation is currently expected to be the northern
coast of Bristol Bay from the western capes to west of King Salmon
and north into the inland valleys. Warmer air is expected to work
its way in near the surface farther east more quickly, which
should lead to a primarily rain event with the second front for
King Salmon. Winds then turn southerly overnight and warm air will
move in near the surface leading to some light rain showers
behind the front on Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A large storm system will approach the Aleutians Sunday morning.
Its strong front will push north across the Aleutian Chain
through Sunday, bringing storm force winds with winds gusting to
near hurricane force to the central and western Aleutians. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Pribilof Islands
as the front brings blowing snow to the islands Sunday evening
through Monday morning. As the front progresses northward across
the Bering snow will abate, allowing for improved visibility. Storm
force winds continue across the western Bering Sea through Monday
night as the front sweeps northward. This storm will continue to
move northwestward and winds are expected to gradually ease on
Tuesday. This storm will also produce large long period 20ft+
swell across the western and central Bering Sea Sunday morning
through Monday night.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A front extends across the Northern Gulf with a couple of low
centers moving along the front through Thursday. Forecast
confidence is fair with movement of the lows. Gusty Westerly winds
move across the Southern Gulf by Wednesday. Seas to 16 feet,
subsiding. A new front enters the Western Gulf Wednesday,
spreading across the Gulf through Thursday. Gusty Southwest winds
with areas of gales move along the front through Thursday. Seas to
14 feet, subsiding Thursday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed North Pacific low moves across the Western
Aleutians Tuesday and back into the North Pacific for Wednesday.
Forecast confidence uncertain with the tracks and developments of
the lows. Widespread high end Northeasterly gales with areas of
storm force winds extends over the Bering and move to the West
with the low. Seas to 25 feet over the Western Bering, subsiding
Thursday. Seas to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the Aleutians,
subsiding Wednesday. A second well developed North Pacific low
approaches Western and Central Aleutians for Thursday. Southerly
gales on the Pacific side of the Pacific side of the Aleutians.
Seas building to 20 feet ahead of the low, subsiding Thursday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term begins Wednesday with the all too familiar longwave
trough/ridge pattern holding across the region. The longwave
trough remains cemented in place from the Beaufort Sea southwest
to the western Aleutians, anchored by a pair of deep upper-level
lows south and west of Attu. Downstream, the upper- level ridge
extends from the eastern Pacific north into the Gulf of Alaska.
Between the two, a progressive pattern of embedded shortwaves
moves from the north Pacific toward Southwest Alaska, following
the southwesterly flow aloft. The stagnant longwave pattern look
to remain in place through Friday, before the deep upper- level
low south of Attu begins to push east and the entire trough axis
centers over the state late Friday into early Saturday. The
movement of this low, however, looks to only shift the longwave
trough temporarily, as this low is quickly replaced by another
moving up from the western Pacific. This second upper- level low
reestablishes the blocky longwave pattern as the upper-level ridge
that exited the Gulf of Alaska at the end of the week returns by
the weekend along with embedded shortwaves in the southwesterly
flow between the two.

At the surface, this is reflected in an active pattern with
multiple storms systems moving from the north Pacific south of the
Aleutian Chain northeast toward Southwest and, ultimately,
Southcentral Alaska. The first of these systems lifts north across
the eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula, with a surface low
near Cape Newenham, by Wednesday morning. Models differ on
exactly how far north this low and its associated front will
travel before a triple point low forms along the front in the
western Gulf. The EC and GEM spin up the low by Wednesday
afternoon, while the GFS is delayed, allowing warmer air with this
system to push farther inland. The differences stem from the
interaction of two upper- level shortwaves. The EC and GEM both
strengthen the southernmost of the two and phase the energy from
the northern one into it. This is what allows the triple-point low
to spin up faster and allow for a faster eastern progression, as
this system exits the region Thursday morning. The GFS keeps both
waves separate, with a stronger northerly wave. With the bet
dynamics to the north, the GFS pushes the low and front into the
interior of the state, delays the development of the surface low
in the Gulf and slows the progression of the system across
Southcentral until Friday morning. With a more northerly track and
robust intrusion of warmer air, the GFS solution would also
introduce precipitation type concerns for the interior of the
Southern Mainland.

With the overall pattern remaining progressive, the next system
moves in quickly on on the heels of the first, moving across the
Aleutian Chain and over Southwest Alaska by Friday morning. This
system moves over Southcentral by Saturday and exits the region
late Saturday as the next system moves from the eastern Aleutians
to Southwest Alaska by late Saturday and across the Southern
Mainland for Sunday. Precipitation type will be a concern with
each system, especially across the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay,
and Southcentral coast.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 195.
MARINE...Storms: 176, 177, 178, 411.
         Gales: 155, 170, 172, 173, 174, 175, 179, 185, 412, 413, 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 179, 185, 411, 412, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/TM