Storm Warning 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

154 
FZAK62 PAFC 200059
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201400-
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 978 mb low at 51N 172E merges
with a North Pacific low at 54N 178W Sun afternoon and moves into 
the Northern Bering at 60N 176W as a 985 mb low. Its front moves 
through the Eastern Bering through Sun afternoon. Another front 
approaches the Western Aleutians by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK62 PAFC 201259
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210130-
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 52N 176W this morning will move to 59N 177W at 984
mb Monday morning. The low then moves to 65N 177W at 998 mb
Tuesday morning. A front moves across the western Bering Sea
Monday morning through Tuesday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray north
of 57N. Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and
snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 50 kt in the 
afternoon. Stronger winds expected S of the Pribilof Islands. Seas 5
to 10 ft building to 15 to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKST Fri Feb 18 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough remains in place across much of southern
Alaska and the Bering this morning. Multiple upper level
shortwaves continue to move from the western Bering all the way to
the east towards Southeast Alaska and the Alcan border. As a
result, this is keeping a rather progressive weather pattern in
place. The upper level shortwave that brought the precipitation to
Southcentral yesterday continues moving off to the east towards
Southeast Alaska and Canada. As a result, much of Southcentral has
just been left with some low clouds and fog in areas. Talkeetna
has been reporting mist/fog all morning as well as low ceilings
and occasional snow. Much of the Kenai Peninsula has just been
observing mid to high level clouds for most of the morning. Even
Anchorage has had ceilings rise with just mid to high level clouds
overhead. Some residual moisture remains in place across the
Matanuska Valley especially around Palmer where a mix of rain and
snow continued through the morning hours.

A broad upper level shortwave trough over the central Bering
continues moving east-southeastward today which is resulting in
some light snow for much of Southwest Alaska this morning/early
afternoon. Places like Bethel, Dillingham, and Togiak have all
been reporting light snow throughout the morning and early
afternoon hours.

Lastly, a strong upper level low southeast of the Western
Aleutians continues moving northward bringing with it another
round of unsettled weather (mainly rain and gusty winds) to the
Western and Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The overall synoptic pattern remains in good agreement out to Day
3. Of course, there are some differences that arise though. Model
guidance continues to be in good agreement on the track and
strength of the western Bering low that is expected to impact the
Western Aleutians later today through Saturday morning. Therefore,
minimal changes made here. However, the next system that comes up
on Saturday afternoon towards the Western and Central Aleutians
remains in disagreement on the exact and strength of this low. The
GFS is by far the strongest solution showing hurricane force winds
but in the boundary layer. The 18z NAM came into closer agreement
with the GFS but is still not nearly as strong as the GFS
solution. The Canadian-NH is in closer agreement with the NAM but
only showing storm force winds. THE EC is the lowest with the wind
speeds showing only high end gale force. The EC was largely
discounted this forecast package as it was the outlier and
weakest on the wind field. The main issues across Southcentral the
next few days will be temperatures and cloud cover as the overall
pattern is in good agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF package.
Gusty southerly winds are expected to continue through this
evening before diminishing and becoming light and variable for the
overnight hours. There is some potential that ceilings may lower
to around the 5000 foot cloud deck overnight into Saturday
morning. Also, some guidance was hinting at MVFR ceilings Saturday
am, though, this is low confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

Western southcentral is being treated to a glimpse of sunlight
this afternoon, while many locations further east and inland
remain bogged down under a low cloud shield. A few areas of light
snow linger along Hatcher Pass and the Susitna Valley, but
elsewhere, the moisture stream has been cut off as the main low
that brought in the immense amount of moisture passes into Canada.
Warm temperatures in the 30s, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal,
encompass the region under a light wind regime. Looking ahead to
tonight, a combination of radiational cooling over a wet snowpack
may lead to the development of patchy fog across the region
seeing sunlight this afternoon, and a bit of cooling.

The drying trend under generally warm conditions maintains itself
Saturday, under a building ridge of high pressure aloft. Some
moisture trapped beneath the ridge will lead to a few isolated
showers, but this won't being anything substantial. This ridge
will be short-lived however, as a deep upper level low, with a
fair amount of energy, builds strength over the North Pacific.
Ahead of it, a fast-moving shortwave will move out ahead of the
low and move into southcentral from the southwest. This shortwave
won't amount to much with a line of showers along its primary
boundary forecast to move southwest to northeast, quickly losing
steam over the Kenai as it rolls into western Prince William Sound
and Anchorage as the upper low gets engulfed in the next, more
substantial upper level low, located over the Bering Sea by
Sunday afternoon.

The weather becomes dicey as the aforementioned upper low swings
northeast, with a nice swatch of moisture taking aim at the
southern Alaska coast. Increased surface gradients over the
mountains Monday morning will heighten the probability of gap
winds over the course of the day, while difficulties in
precipitation type forecasting ensue once again. It does look like
a warm jet will pair with what looks like significant moisture
Monday evening and into the day Tuesday, so be prepared for
similar precipitation types and rates to what we saw with the
previous system. The warm tongue of moisture will move north over
the Kenai Peninsula and take aim at the Anchorage Bowl and Mat
Valley during the day Monday; higher elevations and locations
inland look to see snow at this point as precipitation spreads
northeastward. Locations like Hatcher Pass will likely become
favored once more. As this system is still developing; standby for
updates with many uncertainties still at play.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Monday)...

A combination of steady snow and rain/snow mixed, and
intermittent snowfall pattern will continue tonight with parts of
Bristol Bay catching a bit more light rain/snow mixed and snow
farther inland and along the Kusko Delta Coast. Fortunately, a
much quieter forecast will kick in Sat morning through Sun night
as a result of an upper ridging moving over the Southwest Sat
morning trailed by warm air advection behind a frontal system
beneath the upper ridging. Cooler temperatures and partly to
mostly clear skies will associate with this patter. Meanwhile,
persistence rainfall and warm southerly winds pushes their way
north through the Kusko Delta and beyond Bristol Bay through the
weekend.

A frontal system from the Bering combined with an upper level
trough aims for Nunivak and the northwestern part of Kusko Delta
Coast Sun night. It's unclear whether this solution may change in
the next forecast run but based on the NNW position of the upper
ridging across the state, this next system from the Bering may
likely remain west of the region with only light snow expected
from it along the Kusko Delta Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 -
Tonight through Monday)...

A weakening low over the eastern Bering aims for Bristol Bay this
evening, bringing rain/snow mixed across Bristol Bay, steady
light snow along the Kusko Delta Coast, and freezing fog across
Kipnuk tonight. Through the short term, warm advection will aid to
rising temperatures and increased rainfall over much of the Bering
and Aleutians. Two separate lows will move near the western and
central Aleutians, with the second low crossing the central
Aleutians Sun morning bringing elevated winds and gusts up to 75
mph over Atka and Adak. Widespread gales and much stronger gap
winds will spread through such of the central and eastern
Aleutians into Monday morning. This same system could bring strong
widespread gales across the path of Pribilof Islands Sun morning
should the low remain on track and on the west of Saint Paul. The
first low will eventually circle to the south of the western
Aleutians Sat afternoon, then weakens Sat night into Sun
afternoon. For this reason, a High Wind Warning is in effect for
the Central Aleutians from 5 am to 5 pm Sunday, and a High Wind
Watch remains in effect late Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon for the Eastern Aleutians. Overall, an active pattern
will continue for the Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

High pressure moves into the Eastern Gulf for Tuesday. A front
enters the Western Gulf and extends across the Northern Gulf
through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. Light winds yield to
gusty Southerly winds less than gale force moves across the Gulf
through Wednesday. An area of high end Easterly gales extends over
the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay late Monday through
Wednesday. Seas to 12 feet with the front through Wednesday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

The weather pattern continues busy through Wednesday. A well
developed Central Bering low moves through The Bering Strait for
Tuesday. A strong front moves across the Aleutians and Bering
through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is good. The Central Bering
wind wrapped low has high end Southerly gales with areas of storm
force winds on its Eastern flank, diminishing Tuesday. Western
flank has Northerly gales, diminishing late Monday. Seas to 24
feet over the Central Bering, and to 20 feet on the Pacific side
of the Aleutians, subsiding late Monday. Widespread Southerly
gales with the front move into the Central Aleutians and Bering by
Wednesday. Seas building to 20 feet for Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Upper level trough/ridge pattern continues through the long term.
Ridging over the State on Tuesday moves eastward through the late
week. Meanwhile, longwave troughing extends over the Bering sea.
Solutions are hinting at the development of a surface low at the
base of the trough south of Kodiak Island/Southern AKPen. This
would bring active weather to Kodiak Island initially, and to the
North Gulf Coast later as the front moves northwards. Periods of
warmer air ahead of front may keep temperatures freezing in some
places, and precipitation type will continue to vary. There is
fair model agreement for the progression of the upper level waves
moving across the State through mid-week. Model spread begins to
grow beyond Wednesday with the approach of a North Pacific low.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
		 High Wind Watch 185.
MARINE...Gale Warning 170 172-176 178 185 411-413.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 179 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1158 PM AKST FRI FEB 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       12 SSE TALKEETNA        62.18N 149.96W
02/18/2022  M18.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            18 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED OFF OF YODER RD 3
            MILES EAST OF TALKEETNA SPUR RD WITH SYSTEM
            THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
            ESTIMATED WEEKLY TOTAL OF 4 FEET.

&&

BL