Storm Warning 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

314 
FZAK62 PAFC 130001
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131500-
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1004 mb low at 54N 173E moves to 52N 167E and dissipates Sun 
morning. A 1011 mb low near 59N 165W moves onshore around 60N 162W
for Sun morning. A 945 mb North Pacific low moves to 50N 174E at 
961 mb by Mon afternoon. Its front moves over the Aleutians Mon 
morning and extends across the Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-131500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
301 PM AKST Sat Feb 12 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0 to 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 1 to 6 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 56N. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray N of 57N. Snow.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt.
Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.

$$

060 
FZAK62 PAFC 131356
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140215-
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 946 mb North Pacific low near 42N 177E slowly moves to 52N 174E
through Tuesday morning while weakening to 970 mb. Its front moves
over the Aleutians through Sunday afternoon before overspreading
the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night. A second front lifts across the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday morning before
intensifying over the northern Bering Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-140215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow with rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
456 AM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 1 to 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

583 
FZAK62 PAFC 132334
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141430-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 949 mb North Pacific low at 45N 177E weakens as it moves to 53N
168E at 976 mb Tue afternoon. A 998 mb low forms at 57N 168W Mon 
afternoon and moves to 60N 163W at 1003 mb Mon night before 
tracking inland. A North Pacific low moves to 52N 168W at 997 mb 
Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 57N.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
234 PM AKST Sun Feb 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 57N.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.

$$

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 141250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150145-
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 mb North Pacific low at 48N 178E weakens as it moves to 52N
173E at 970 mb Tue morning and then towards Kamchatka through Wed
morning. Another North Pacific low reaches 49N 179E Wed morning 
with a front crossing the Western Aleutians Tues afternoon. A North
Pacific low and reaches 58N 166W Wed morning at 990mb.

$$

PKZ411-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

992 
FZAK62 PAFC 150028
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151415-
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low at 50N 178E on Mon afternoon moves to 52N 168E at 969
mb by Tue afternoon. Its front moves across the Bering through Tue
morning. Another 963 mb North Pacific low reaches 49N 178E Wed 
morning. Its front crosses the Western Aleutians by Tues afternoon.
A North Pacific low reaches 58N 165W Wed morning at 995mb.

$$

PKZ411-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Rain with snow S of 57N.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N. Snow and rain S
of 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 26 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 57N. Rain and snow S of 57N.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray N 
of 58N. Snow and rain S of 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 PM AKST Mon Feb 14 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7
ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKST Fri Feb 11 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A longwave trough extends from the Beaufort Sea southwest to the
western Aleutians with an upper-level ridge axis positioned along
the west coast of the US and Canada. There are multiple upper-
level waves and associated surface features embedded within and
rotating around the base of this trough, culminating a what is an
active and complex weather pattern across not only the Southern
Mainland, but the Bering and Aleutians as well.

The first of these shortwaves is exiting the northern Gulf this
afternoon. An associated surface low is moving east of Middleton
Island with the bulk of the precipitation also now pushing east of
Cordova. The exception to this is continued light snow across the
Susitna Valley and across the Talkeetnas, where the persistent
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough is
maintaining an upslope flow. A second wave is approaching the
AKPen with light snow beginning to develop around Bristol Bay.
This feature will move toward Southcentral for Saturday.

There is a third system, a vertically stacked low, over the
eastern Bering with an occluded front sweeping across the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. A resultant tight pressure
gradient between the low and a cold dome of high pressure over the
interior of the state is producing strong northeasterly winds
across across the Kuskokwim Delta, especially along the coast.
The combination of winds and falling snow is helping drive near
blizzard conditions from Kipnuk to Hooper Bay, where some coastal
locations have reported visibility dropping as low as one quarter
mile at times.

Lastly, a second vertically stacked low remains nearly stationary
northeast of Shemya. This system is maintaining an area of gales
over the western Bering as well as snow showers across the western
Aleutians as colder air wraps around the base of the low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are continuing to show good agreement despite the rather
complex weather pattern. As such, forecast confidence remains
above average as an active weather pattern takes hold across much
of the forecast domain. Some subtle differences remain in the next
shortwave lifting to the SOuthcentral coast for Saturday, with the
GFS and GEM slightly farther south and east than the EC and NAM.
While the overall sensible weather should be be affected the
position of the shortwave, the core of the heaviest precipitation
does vary slightly. Nonetheless, all model show a general light
snow across Southcentral with heavier precipitation along the
coast. Models are also varying the timing of a shortwave dropping
southeast from the northern Bering. This features will act to kick
the wave over the eastern Bering east, eventually phasing together
as the entire trough axis moves from Southwest Alaska to
Southcentral. Again, the subtleties do little to significantly
alter sensible weather, but the speed at which the trough axis
moves east will determine the when the widespread light snow
tapers off. Right now, the NAM is the fastest, with the other
models only slightly slower. Models are also in good agreement
with the next storm-force low to approach the western Aleutians
from the south for Monday. One difference of note is the timing of
the northward progression of its front. The GFS is the slowest
with the front reaching the Pribilofs by 00z Tuesday. All other
models push the front to the Pribilofs by 18z Monday. Timing will
determine when snow transitions to rain for for the Aleutians and
Pribilofs.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist until the next system
approaches around midnight. Around this time, ceilings will lower
as light snow develops over the terminal. IFR conditions are
expected after midnight due to the combination of low clouds and
reduced visibility from falling snow. IFR conditions are expected
to persist through late Saturday afternoon or evening. Light
northerly winds will persist through early Saturday morning. Winds
are then expected to become southerly while remaining light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level ridge currently over Southcentral exits to the
northeast through the night tonight, followed swiftly by an
incoming upper level trough extending off a Bering low. Northerly
flow at the surface will continue across Anchorage through this
evening before switching to southerly, allowing light snowfall to
filter into the area, snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is
possible and snow should taper off Saturday afternoon. Colder air
advecting in behind the ridge brings another shot of snow showers
to the Homer and Homer Bluffs regions tonight through Saturday
morning. Southwesterly flow pattern is a good set- up for upslope
precipitation development across Hatcher Pass and parts of the
Susitna Valley, namely Talkeetna north through Broad Pass. This
event will be a long duration snow fall, spanning through the
weekend, with possible snow accumulations of 7 to 9 inches for
Palmer, Talkeetna, and Chulitna, and higher amounts across the
higher elevations. Additionally, the eastern portions of the
Copper River Basin get caught up in the upper level waves moving
through tonight and tomorrow morning. Anticipate light snowfall
from Chitina to Gulkana and areas further north up to Paxson.

Additionally, the bombardment of surface fronts along the North
Gulf Coast will keep continual precipitation (moderate to heavy at
times) to Cordova and Valdez, as well as the higher elevations
through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Warm southerly winds accompanying the next frontal system from the
Bering will cause temperatures to rise in the upper 30s on Mon.
The potential for steady rain is favorable over much of Bristol
Bay and the Alaska Peninsula depending how far the blanket of
warm air advection spreads out to farther inland on Mon. The
P-type could be a challenge for some areas along the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and parts of the Kusko Delta between Mon morning
and Mon night. In the meantime, an upper low embedded in the
longwave trough will eventually enter the Kusko Delta coastline
Sat evening. This latter energy combined with another separate
longwave from the south of AKPEN will allow for another round of
light snow across the region into Sun morning.

Along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline, blowing snow continues, and a
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
west of Bethel until 9 PM Fri night. Should reduced visibilities
of 1/4 mile or less persist tonight, this product would be updated.
Stay tuned!

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A large frontal system approaching the Aleutians Sun morning will
sweep a widespread area of gales and potentially storm force
winds, and high seas of more than 25 ft to the north and east of
the western Aleutians, and up to 33 ft along the south of the
western and central Aleutians Mon morning. This system will drive
warm south-southwesterly winds across the Bering/Aleutians,
causing tropical moisture and potentially steady rain to push
across the region Sun morning into Mon night. Also, gap winds will
continue for much of the Aleutians into Mon.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

High pressure moves across the Gulf Monday. Forecast confidence
is good. A front enters the Western Gulf late Monday. High end
Southerly gales spread across the Gulf, becoming Westerly on
Tuesday and diminishing. Seas building to 20 feet near Kodiak
Island and move across the Gulf through Wednesday. A new front
approaches the Western Gulf for Wednesday with increasingly gusty
Southerly winds.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed North Pacific low moves across the Western
Aleutians Tuesday and back into the North Pacific for Wednesday.
Forecast confidence decreases with the low developments near the
end of the period. Widespread high end Easterly gales with areas
of storm force winds extends over the Aleutians and Bering and
move to the West with the low. Seas to 30 feet over the Western
and Central Aleutians and Bering, subsiding Wednesday. A well
developed North Pacific low moves across the Southern Alaska
Peninsula for Wednesday. Winds increase to Easterly gales across
the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay, and Southerly gales on the
Pacific side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula,
subsiding Wednesday. Seas building to 20 feet ahead of the low on
Tuesday, subsiding Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Model guidance remains honed in on the upper level pattern
through the long term forecast period. Though, of course, subtle
differences do arise which will alter how the weather at the
surface behaves. Model guidance continues to remain in agreement
across the board on an upper level ridge over the eastern North
Pacific with a fairly strong upper level low especially on Tuesday
remaining in place south of the Western Aleutians. This low will
slowly weaken through the week as a weak upper level ridge takes
its place. An upper level trough remains in place across the North
Slope keeping the deep Arctic air in place here. As a result,
models remain in decent agreement on a low pressure system moving
northward from the North Pacific Tuesday night into Wednesday that
may bring another round of precipitation to much of Southern
Alaska mostly in the form of snow with snow changing to rain for
places like Kodiak. It should be noted that the EC and Canadian as
well as their ensembles are mostly in lockstep with each other
and east with the system while the GFS is stronger and further
west for the time being and is therefore the outlier at this point
in time.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of the period, model guidance
starts to strengthen the upper level trough some across the North
Slope. The GFS and its ensemble members keep the trough over the
North Slope with a magnitude similar to that of the EC but more
over central interior Alaska. The Canadian and its ensembles were
weakest with this trough but in a similar place to the EC.
Therefore, the sensible weather at the surface is uncertain as the
EC would suggest a colder regime with most systems remaining
across the Gulf with little push north. However, the GFS and
Canadian suggest the opposite basically keeping the pattern
currently in place with periodic rounds of precipitation. As a
result, low confidence in the forecast past Wednesday. Overall,
temperatures during this time frame are expected to be hovering
right around normal to slightly above normal.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Gales: 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 179, 185, 411, 412, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV