Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

939 
FZAK52 PAFC 150012
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151300-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 mb low 50 nm southwest of Kipnuk moves to near Newtok at 
1006 mb Sat afternoon, then dissipates as it moves inland. A 
strong front approaching the Western Aleutians moves into the 
Western and Central Aleutians Sat afternoon, then drifts north 
over the central and western Bering by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from the Shumagin 
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151300-
Bristol Bay-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-151300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151300-
Unalaska Bay-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151300-
Adak to Kiska-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151300-
Kiska to Attu-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and widespread snow
showers.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-151300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-151300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

104 
FZAK52 PAFC 151253
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160200-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low near Nunivak Island moves to 40 nm southeast of
Hooper Bay at 1009 mb Sat afternoon, then dissipates as it moves 
inland. A 969 mb low 375 nm south of Shemya meanders to 380 nm
south of Shemya at 971 mb Sun night. Its front moves through the 
Western and Central Aleutians through Sat afternoon, then drifts 
north over the central and western Bering Sun night.

$$

PKZ150-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160200-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-160200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160200-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160200-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 19 ft. Rain. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE..E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160200-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...
21 ft Pac side.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft Bering side...19 ft Pac side. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-160200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-160200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

674 
FZAK52 PAFC 160051
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161330-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb low 285 nm South of Shemya loops into the North Pacific 
at 974 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front moves across the Southern 
Bering through Mon afternoon. High pressure remains over the 
Northern Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161330-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-161330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161330-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161330-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Bering side, E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after
midnight. Pac side, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161330-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...21 ft Pac side.
Widespread snow showers.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...18 ft Pac side. Snow 
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-161330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-161330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

950 
FZAK52 PAFC 161250
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170130-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 mb low 280 nm south of Shemya meanders to 370 nm south of
Shemya at 976 mb Mon evening. Its front continues moving from the
southern Bering to the northern Bering through Mon night. Another
981 mb North Pacific low Sun night moves to 270 nm south of Adak at
973 mb Mon night while absorbing the aforementioned 976 mb.

$$

PKZ150-170130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170130-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-170130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170130-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170130-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170130-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft Bering side...17 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side...15 ft Pac side.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 25 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-170130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-170130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKST Thu Jan 13 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 965 mb surface low situated south of the AKPen continues to lift
northeast toward Kodiak Island. This low is tapping into a deep
moisture feed originating near the Hawaiian Islands, where total
precipitable water values still exceed 150% or more of normal.
This stream of moisture is lifting across the eastern Gulf then
bending northwestward into the Southcentral coast, aided by a
strong southeasterly flow out ahead of front draped across the
central Gulf. The core of the moisture and strong southeasterly
winds is aimed at the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince
William Sound. Snow that fell this morning for locations like
Seward and Portage have since changed over to rain this afternoon.
Snow has also changed to rain for Kodiak City with the passage of
the front. Gusty southeasterly gap winds also continue this
afternoon, mainly through Turnagain Arm, where occasional gusts
over 60 mph have been reported.

The vast majority of the precipitation is confined to the coast
and along the upslope side of the Kenai and Chugach Ranges due to
the strong southeasterly, cross-barrier flow. However, as weak
upper-level waves lifts onshore ahead of the surface front,
pockets of precipitation, flurries mainly, are popping up from
Kenai and Soldotna north to Anchorage. With the low southeast of
Cook Inlet, locations in the Mat-Su Valleys south along Cook Inlet
have also seen an increase in northerly winds.

Farther west, precipitation and gusty winds are also occurring
around Bristol Bay this afternoon. Light snow has been falling
from Koliganek to Dillingham with more of a wintry mix from Port
Heiden south across the AKPen.

For the Bering and Aleutians, a northerly to northeasterly flow
persists, with occasional snow showers due to instability
generated from a cold airmass moving over warmer waters south of
the ice edge.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good agreement out through Saturday
morning before beginning to diverge. Guidance remains consistent
with the evolution of the upper level features and surface
features with the current storm system moving northward through
the Gulf and into Southcentral through Friday. It is the next
shortwave originating over the Bering on Friday where the
discrepancies arise. While all show this feature gaining strength
and consolidating into an upper-level low as it moves east over
Southwest Alaska, it is how it evolves as it moves over
Southcentral or Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. The NAM and GEM have a
more northerly track with a surface low developing just off the
eastern Kenai Peninsula coast while the GFS has a more southerly
track with a surface low spinning up closer to Middleton Island.
The former would favor snow across the southern half of
Southcentral, including locations from Kenai to Palmer. The latter
would keep the bulk of the precipitation closer to the coast and
mainly from Prince William Sound east. Thus, forecast confidence
with this next potential system is below average.

Model guidance also remains in good agreement on another storm
force low moving into the Aleutian Island Chain/Bering Sea Friday
evening and through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are mostly expected throughout the TAF
package. However, occasional gusty northerly winds are expected
through late afternoon before diminishing through the evening and
overnight hours. Though, expect southeasterly winds around 2000 ft
causing wind shear over the terminal. Occasional flurries and/or
light snow with ceilings to MVFR are also possible through early
this evening. A southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind is expected to
bend over the terminal by mid-morning Friday as this the surface
low currently near Kodiak Island moves up Cook Inlet. Any
precipitation that tracks with the low could fall in the form of
rain as temperatures climb above freezing with the southeasterly
wind. Any rain that does fall, however, would be light in
intensity and short in duration.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3...Thursday night through Saturday night)...

A beautifully wrapped up low is centered just south of Kodiak
Island and continues to lift northward this afternoon. The leading
frontal boundary has pushed inland over Southcentral, bringing
gusty easterly winds to the northern Gulf coast and rain to coastal
locations. Meanwhile, snow continues to fall at higher elevations.
As this low continues to track northward, gusty southeasterly
winds will continue through Turnagain Arm. Northerly winds are
expected to hold across the Cook Inlet until late this evening,
shielding the Anchorage Bowl from Turnagain Arm winds however by
Friday morning, winds are expected to bend into Anchorage.
Meanwhile higher elevations such as the Anchorage Hillside will
see gusty southeasterly winds beginning to increase as early as
this evening. As a result of the southeasterly flow, the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and southern Mat-Su Valleys will
be downsloped and won't see much precipitation for Friday.

As the upper level trough associated with this low lifts inland
on Friday, precipitation will taper and winds will diminish by the
afternoon. Then all attention shifts to a weak surface low
spinning up over the northern Gulf tracking from east to west
Friday night into Prince William Sound. This surface low, in
combination with an approaching upper level low over Southwest
Alaska, has the potential to bring snow to much of Southcentral
on Saturday. Confidence remains low with this next system, as
model solutions struggle to resolve several key features and
timing, however the main ingredients are slowly coming together.
Please stay tuned as we continue to monitor the development of
this system.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Day 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sun)...

Precipitation has arrived for the Bristol Bay area with
temperatures already in the 30s. Iliamna has remained dry due to
downsloping through this afternoon. King Salmon had a brief snow
shower but also generally remained dry. There is still a chance
for precipitation to fill for those areas. Additionally, while the
majority of precipitation around the area has fallen as snow, the
possibility for a wintry mix including freezing rain cannot be
completely ruled out. High resolution models have a few hours
tonight that increase a warm nose temperature in the mid to lower
levels, including a wet bulb temperature just above freezing. By
Friday morning, enough cold air will return with generally
northerly flow to turn any precipitation to snow.

The low over the Southwest will stretch and elongate over the
entire region as the next low over the Aleutians presses east.
Enough upslope forcing will allow some snow showers to linger
throughout the entire southwest as the flow transitions to
northerly and northwesterly on Friday into Saturday, especially
along the Aleutian and Alaska Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Day 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sun)...

Broad area of northerly flow through the Bering Sea to Central
and Eastern Aleutians tonight. Heavy freezing spray over the
Northern Bering and near the ice edge will continue.

A low over Southwest Alaska will elongate and stretch into the
Bering Sea as a North Pacific low presses north and east through
the short term. That said, lingering snow showers will remain
possible. After midnight Friday into Saturday, easterly winds will
increase to storm force potential as the low presses into the
Western and Central Aleutians by Saturday afternoon. Precipitation
chances will increase with the passage of the front and any snow
will quickly transition to rain. The front appears to reach the
AKPen by Sunday afternoon with southerly flow.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A weak area of high pressure will maintain winds
less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5
period.

Bering Sea: A broad area of low pressure settling across the
western Aleutians to the North Pacific will remain stationary
through early next week. Small, embedded disturbances circulating
around the broad low will bring gale force winds and seas above 20
ft at times for south of the Aleutians and much of the Bering Sea
through Tuesday.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Overall, the latest operational model runs are in decent agreement
with the evolution and progression of the synoptic scale features
for early next week but diverge in the specific details towards
the end of the period. For Southcentral, high pressure building
over the Gulf of Alaska will leave a brief period of dry weather
from Monday through Wednesday. The rest of the mainland, including
coastal and interior Southwest, is expected to be relatively dry
with near to below normal temperatures as the ridge axis extends
north of the Alaska Peninsula to the eastern Bering Sea. Beginning
on Wednesday, models seem to key on a frontal boundary extending
from the center of a North Pacific low, bringing precipitation and
wind from Kodiak Island northward to the southern mainland. If
this scenario were to materialize, there is a potential that a
barrier jet will develop along the northern Gulf coast from Prince
William Sound to the Copper River Delta area. Where the
uncertainty emerges is the track, position, and timing of the low
and front that still needs to be ironed out with subsequent model
runs. Out west, a broad trough will settle across the western
Aleutians to the North Pacific. Weak, embedded shortwaves and
surface lows moving upstream of the trough will bring a wintry mix
of rain/snow and gusty winds at times along the southern portion
of the Aleutians into the Bering Sea. Depending on the track and
positions of these shortwaves, this could also bring widespread
precipitation to the eastern Aleutians and the southwestern
mainland later next week.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 125.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 131 132 177 178.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VR
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF