Storm Warning 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

954 
FZAK51 PAFC 250013
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251300-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984mb low 50 nm ESE of Middleton Island dissipates over the 
northern Gulf Sat night. A 960 mb N Pacific low strengthens to 950
mb near 130 nm SSE of Kodiak Sun evening, before weakening to 962
mb 50 nm ENE of Kodiak Mon evening.

$$

PKZ119-251300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251300-
Resurrection Bay-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251300-
Prince William Sound-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251300-
Port Valdez-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251300-
Valdez Narrows-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251300-
Valdez Arm-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251300-
Passage Canal-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251300-
Barren Islands East-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251300-
Chiniak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251300-
Marmot Bay-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251300-
Shelikof Strait-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251300-
Kachemak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sat Dec 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

598 
FZAK51 PAFC 251245
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260145-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 952 mb N Pacific low strengthens to 949 mb approximately 300 NM
South of Kodiak Sun evening. This low will weaken to 956 mb Mon 
morning and be 50 nm south of Kodiak City morning. This low will 
weaken to 975mb Tuesday morning and be near 100 nm south of 
Seward. 

$$

PKZ119-260145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 
ft subsiding to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft 
subsiding to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260145-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260145-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260145-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260145-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260145-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260145-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt early becoming E wind 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260145-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 20 kt becoming W
in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260145-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260145-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260145-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to
6 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260145-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

880 
FZAK51 PAFC 260015
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261245-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 950 mb low 270 nm SE of Kodiak moves to 50 nm NE of Kodiak 
while weakening to 966 mb Mon afternoon. It then moves 65nm S of 
Seward at 984 mb by Tue afternoon.


$$

PKZ119-261245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
36 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 30 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
32 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261245-
Resurrection Bay-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261245-
Prince William Sound-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261245-
Port Valdez-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261245-
Valdez Narrows-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261245-
Valdez Arm-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261245-
Passage Canal-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.  and rain.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261245-
Barren Islands East-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 32 ft
subsiding to 26 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 27 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
26 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261245-
Chiniak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261245-
Marmot Bay-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261245-
Shelikof Strait-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding
to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free
waters 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-261245-
Kachemak Bay-
315 PM AKST Sun Dec 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Fri Dec 23 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A Rex Blocking pattern currently extends across the North Pacific
with low pressure south of the Aleutians and high pressure
extending from Siberia to across the Alaskan mainland.

Closer to the surface, observations show strong northeasterly flow
across Southcentral. The strongest winds have been observed in the
Matanuska Valley where the strongest gusts have been near 70 mph.
Gusts near 60 mph occurred at Ted Stevens International Airport.
Radar shows little to no shower activity across the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast confidence remains low overall except for the immediate
short term forecast. There is good agreement with the overall
trend for strong winds across Southcentral to ease over the next
several hours. However, model agreement has diverged since
yesterday's runs with respect to a low moving across the Alaska
Peninsula on Saturday. This means there is very low confidence
with respect to the snowfall forecast for Kodiak and across
Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for this TAF period. Winds will
gradually ease during the afternoon and evening hours across the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

The upper level trough and associated cold air advection which
produced strong winds and blowing snow across portions of
Southcentral today has exited to Southwest Alaska. However, low
pressure down over the Gulf of Alaska will maintain very tight
pressure gradients. Low level flow behind the upper trough will
also be slow to slacken. As a result, expect winds to linger
tonight into Saturday, especially through mountain passes/valleys.
Have extended the Blizzard Warning for the Matanuska Valley all
the way through Saturday morning at which point winds should
significantly diminish. Gusty winds and blowing snow will also
linger along Knik Arm and the Glenn Highway Corridor down into
north to west Anchorage.

A more aggressive digging of the upper level trough is leading to
a change in track of the low currently over the southern Gulf. It
will remain over the eastern half of the Gulf as it track
northward tonight and Saturday, leading to a much slower arrival
of snow for the Copper River Basin and Valdez/Cordova areas. Now
expect light snow to arrive in the far southeastern Copper River
Basin overnight tonight then spread slowly westward across the
Copper River Basin and eastern Prince William Sound on Saturday.
The western extent of snow on saturday is very much in question,
but it is looking less and less likely that the eastern Kenai
Peninsula will see much, if any snow, from this system.

Meanwhile, a separate surface trough tracking westward across the
Gulf will reach Kodiak Island late tonight through Saturday.
Expect mesoscale bands of snow with this trough, which makes it
difficult to nail down snowfall accumulation for any given
location. Do expect all of Kodiak Island to see some light
accumulation. There will also be some stronger gusty winds with
this which could briefly reduce visibilities to around one half
mile at times. The trough and associated snow will dissipate by
late Saturday.

As we continue to Christmas Day and beyond, all attention will
shift to a large deep low tracking into the Gulf from the
Northeast Pacific. A strong occluded front out ahead of the low
will reach the Gulf coast/Kodiak by late Sunday, bringing
widespread gale to storm force winds across the Gulf coastal
waters along with moderate to heavy precipitation along much of
the coastal zone. Prevailing low level easterly flow will lead to
upslope flow and enhanced precipitation amounts across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula Mountains. Much warmer air will also accompany the
front leading to a fairly quick transition from snow to rain for
areas along the coast near sea level. Snow levels for coastal
mountains will quickly rise Sunday afternoon/evening, reaching
1000 feet or higher. Precipitation will linger along the coast all
the way through Monday. While some moisture will attempt to cross
over the coastal mountains, dry and cold air inland will make it
difficult to saturate the low levels of the atmosphere. As a
result, inland areas of Southcentral look to remain dry with
slowly warming temperatures as we head to the beginning of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Monday afternoon )...

Conditions have largely quieted down for the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) although scattered rain showers linger around the
southern AKPEN as weak low pressure continues to move westward in
the North Pacific. A strong shortwave ejecting from an upper
trough across Yukon, Canada continues to advance westward towards
Bristol Bay this afternoon and through the evening. This will
bring cold temperatures and continued offshore flow to mainland
Southwestern Alaska. Windchills are expected to be quite low this
evening due to the winds in conjunction with the cold air
advection as the closed upper low continues westward towards the
eastern Bering Sea. In response, a Windchill Advisory is in effect
from this until Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to develop around the
northern AKPEN very early Saturday morning. There is uncertainty
with the exact track as guidance continues to struggle with how to
handle the surface feature. Another level of uncertainty is
pinpointing exactly where mesoscale banding will set up along the
AKPEN Saturday morning through evening, in addition to how far
north into the Southwest mainland the precipitation reaches. The
current thinking now is that the AKPEN will see precipitation
mostly in the form of snow, while coastal sections of Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta will see less snow. Precipitation winds
down for coastal Southwest overnight Saturday, while easterly to
southeasterly upslope flow keeps the North Pacific side of the
AKPEN unsettled through Sunday morning. A strong North Pacific low
and its front approach Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
as rain/snow mix is likely for the AKPEN, while mostly snow is
expected for the western interior sections of Bristol Bay. Most
accumulation is confined to the mountains. Please stay tuned to
additional forecast updates as details continue to be fine-tuned
in both the near-term and short-term during this complex weather
pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Active weather will continue for the Bering Sea and Aleutians
during the short-term period. Scattered snow showers continue to
taper off for the Pribilofs tonight as a frontal system continues
to push westward across the Bering and the rest of the Aleutian
Chain Saturday morning through the afternoon, bringing an
additional band of rain/snow showers exiting the western Chain
Saturday evening.

Back east, a surface low is expected to develop across the Alaska
Peninsula early Saturday morning in response to a strong closed
upper low moving westward across Southwestern Alaska and into the
eastern Bering Sea. There is still lots of uncertainty with this
feature as guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of
the system. Uncertainty is especially heightened for the Pribilof
Islands for Sunday. Snow looks to be the dominant precipitation
type as the system will be dragging cold air with it from mainland
Alaska. The ultimate track of the surface feature will determine
how much snow and how windy the Pribilofs get for Sunday. Some
guidance has the system tracking a little more north of the
Pribilofs, while some guidance also depicts the system taking a
more southern track which would be more favorable for higher winds
and more snowfall. The system then continues westward through the
Bering during Sunday afternoon into the evening before making a
southern turn to the North Pacific while crossing the central
Chain through the day on Monday. Snow amounts appear to be light
for the Aleutians overall, with most accumulation confined to the
mountains. Please check back for the latest forecast updates as
finer details on evolution and track continue to be fine-tuned for
the surface low pressure system expected to traverse the eastern
and central Bering Sea.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The latest operational model runs and ensemble means seem to be
in a decent agreement with an upper level low over the western
Bering Sea near Adak, and high pressure remaining over Siberia.
While the upper low sits nearly stationary between Tuesday and
Wednesday, a series of North Pacific systems rotates around the
low, moving north-northeastward past the Aleutians and into the
Gulf of Alaska. This will bring an unsettled pattern for all of
the coastal areas of Southcentral heading into late next week.
While specific details still need to ironed out, persistent
onshore flow will favor moderate to heavy precipitation for the
coast, with much of the mainland remaining relatively dry during
the period. A general troughing pattern out west will result in a
wet pattern for much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Cold,
northerly flow over the relatively warm waters will also help
generate widespread showers over the Pribilof Islands and along
the Aleutian Chain.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 111, 131.
         Wind Chill Advisory: 141, 152.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 130.
         Gale Warning: 119, 120, 125, 127-128, 130, 138-140, 160,
         179-181, 185, 351, 411-414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 127-128, 139-140, 160, 179-181,
         185, 412, 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DN
LONG TERM...MF