Storm Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

186 
FZAK51 PAFC 121924 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-130415-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 mb low 40 nm southeast of Seward will move east and dissipate
Mon night. A 1004 mb low will develop over Kodiak Island Tue morning
and move 40 nm southwest of Cordova at 1008 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-130415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-130415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-130415-
Resurrection Bay-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.Snow. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-130415-
Prince William Sound-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Snow
with rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-130415-
Port Valdez-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas   ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-130415-
Valdez Narrows-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-130415-
Valdez Arm-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-130415-
Passage Canal-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray. Snow. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-130415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-130415-
Barren Islands East-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-130415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-130415-
Chiniak Bay-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-130415-
Marmot Bay-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-130415-
Shelikof Strait-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt early, becoming NE 25 kt. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-130415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-130415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy
freezing spray in the morning. Snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-130415-
Kachemak Bay-
1024 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft inner bay, 12 ft outer bay. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Inner bay, seas 3 ft subsiding. Outer bay, seas 7 ft subsiding 
to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

217 
FZAK51 PAFC 130113
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131430-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low 40 nm southwest of Cordova will move inland Tuesday 
morning. A second 1007 mb low will develop 50 nm northeast of Kodiak 
City early Tuesday morning and will move 70 nm southeast of Cordova 
at 1013 mb Tuesday afternoon. This low then moves inland Tuesday 
evening. A series of troughs will move across the Gulf on Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ119-131430-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131430-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131430-
Resurrection Bay-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131430-
Prince William Sound-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131430-
Port Valdez-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131430-
Valdez Narrows-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131430-
Valdez Arm-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131430-
Passage Canal-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131430-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131430-
Barren Islands East-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 15 ft 
subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131430-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131430-
Chiniak Bay-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131430-
Marmot Bay-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131430-
Shelikof Strait-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.  and snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131430-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131430-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131430-
Kachemak Bay-
413 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern remains amplified across the North Pacific as upper
level troughing extends across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
as well as upper ridging extending across the Gulf of Alaska and
over Southcentral Alaska. The jetstream remains south of 50N west
of 155W and then extends northward to over the central Alaskan
mainland and then southeastward into the North Pacific.

Closer to the surface, radar and observations show snow moving
northeastward from Bristol Bay into Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance remains in good agreement with respect to the placement
and intensity of synoptic scale features through Tuesday. Models
then diverge on Wednesday and Thursday with respect to their
solutions for another low pressure system to move into
Southcentral mid-late week. The biggest challenge for the short-
term forecast is refining snowfall amounts across Southcentral.
For the next system later this week, several forecast challenges
exist including snowfall amounts and precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions exist before 12th/01z. Conditions then
become VLIFR between 12th/01z and 12th/17z as moderate snow and
freezing fog significantly reduce ceilings and visibility.
Conditions will then gradually improve after 12th/17z as MVFR
conditions are expected after 12th/17z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Wednesday afternoon).

Snow continues across the Kenai Peninsula with heavy snow and
quarter mile visibility in Kenai with the same in Whittier. Strong
banding is apparent on the Kenai radar and this band continues to
pivot into Anchorage with moderate snow, where earlier this
morning the area dealt with cross-barrier flow and lighter snow.
Snow will continue area-wide through the overnight hours before
tapering off from south to north and from west to east during the
day on Monday. The Copper River Basin will still contend with snow
Monday afternoon into the evening hours before ending, especially
eastern parts of the area. Winter Storm Warnings still remain out
for Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, the Kenai Peninsula, the Copper
River Basin. Areas of blowing snow area also possible, especially
for the western Kenai Peninsula and eastern Turnagain Arm.

After this system completely departs to the east Monday evening,
dry weather appears likely for most of Southcentral for Monday
night before the next system arrives for Tuesday. Kodiak Island
will be the first to see precipitation in the form of a rain/snow
mix late Monday night into early Tuesday morning and spreads
northward to the rest of Southcentral mid-morning Tuesday.
Snowfall is once again likely with this system; but lighter
amounts likely and not on the order of this evening and Monday's
winter storm. The highest amounts with this system will likely be
in the Susitna Valley with lighter amounts on the order of a few
inches elsewhere across Southcentral. Snow will taper off Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning.

There is no rest for the weary as the active and wintry weather
pattern continues for Southcentral as the next system arrives on
the doorstep for Wednesday with Kodiak Island the first to see
precipitation Wednesday afternoon. There is still a lot of
uncertainty with this system as far as the depth of cold air is
concerned. As of now, this system does appear to be a wet one, but
precipitation type will be an issue. Please pay attention to the
latest forecasts as details continue to be ironed out during this
active wintry pattern stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday night)...

A low pressure system currently near the Barren Islands is
continuing light to moderate snowfall over interior Southwest this
evening. This will taper off from west to east as this low moves
east with an additional one to four inches expected. Very slight
ridging will move overhead this evening but yet another storm is
expected to reach the coast Monday afternoon. Strong winds in the
low levels and easterly flow at the surface over the Kuskokwim
Delta will likely lead to snow and blowing snow along the coast,
reducing visibilities to one half mile and creating difficult
travel. There is some uncertainly in the exact orientation and
strength of the front, which could lead to blizzard conditions
should the right set of circumstances line up. Some warmer air and
onshore flow may also lead to a period of mixed precipitation
along the Bristol Bay coast as the front arrives Monday night.

Potential for hazardous weather will decrease as the surface low
moves inland through the day Tuesday, giving a broad 2 to 5 inches
throughout the region, with the exception of the Alaska Peninsula
where it will stay warmer. Quieter weather will then ensue for
most of the day Wednesday, but a potentially very warm and moist
system is expected to move over the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday
afternoon/evening. There will likely be mixed precipitation and
rain for Bristol Bay as this system moves north, but there is a
lot of uncertainty at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday night)...

A low currently near Shemya and its associated surface front will
move east across the Bering through late Monday night. Gales are
likely in both the warm and cold sectors of this system.
Relatively quiet weather will then move in through Wednesday
morning as high pressure builds in over the Western Aleutians.
This will also help to amplify the pattern, with a low forming in
the north Pacific and moving towards the Alaska Peninsula
Wednesday afternoon. The north/south position of this low by
Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday remains highly uncertain,
which will have a large impact on the wind field late Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A high amplitude pattern upstream, moving towards a blocked
pattern in the eastern Pacific makes for several forecasting
challenges in the long term. The general consensus appears to
bring an active weather pattern with rounds of precipitation one
after another. In between systems, gap and outflow winds are
possible as the pressure gradient appears to tighten along the
Southcentral and eastern Alaska mountain ranges. Unfortunately
there is a lack of meaningful model agreement. Onshore flow could
battle cold air advection from inland, therefore timing and
magnitude of the wind potential is uncertain. The track of the
main features with each system is enough to lead to precipitation
type forecasting challenges. At this time, the Canadian model
appears to be the outlier of the models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 101 111 121 125 141 145.
         Winter Weather Advisory 152 155 161
         Flood Advisory 145
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130.
         Gale Warning 120 121 125 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165
         170-179 180 181 185 351 352 411 412 413 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DAN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
LONG TERM...VR