Storm Warning 173, NWS Anchorage, AK

591 
FZAK51 PAFC 111258
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120115-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 mb low near Kodiak City will move to 40 nm east of Chenega 
Mon afternoon and weaken to 988 mb. This low will weaken to 1007 mb 
and move to 120 nm east of Middleton Island Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-120115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Near the
coast, E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 45 kt becoming S 15
kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-120115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-120115-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming Variable in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-120115-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ126-120115-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-120115-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-120115-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-120115-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.MON...W wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-120115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.  and rain.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-120115-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-120115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ136-120115-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-120115-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-120115-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-120115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-120115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-120115-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late morning. Seas building
to 4 ft by afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

595 
FZAK51 PAFC 120013
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121245-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 mb low over Kodiak Island this afternoon will move 40 nm
southwest of Cordova at 993 mb Monday afternoon. This low then 
moves east and inland Tuesday morning. A second 1006 mb low will 
develop over Kodiak Island Tuesday morning and move 40 nm
southwest of Cordova at 1008 mb Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-121245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. E wind 50
kt near the coast. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121245-
Resurrection Bay-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121245-
Prince William Sound-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt in the morning becoming NW 30 kt. Seas 4 ft 
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121245-
Port Valdez-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121245-
Valdez Narrows-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121245-
Valdez Arm-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121245-
Passage Canal-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier before midnight. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Snow 
and rain.
.MON...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121245-
Barren Islands East-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 15 ft 
subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121245-
Chiniak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121245-
Marmot Bay-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121245-
Shelikof Strait-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after 
midnight. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas in 
ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121245-
Kachemak Bay-
313 PM AKST Sun Dec 11 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt inner bay. N wind 25 kt outer bay. Seas 3 ft
inner bay. Seas 7 ft outer bay. Snow.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. NW wind 25 kt outer bay. Seas 6 ft outer bay. 
Seas 3 ft inner bay.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKST Sat Dec 10 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure continues to build in from the north and
west across interior Alaska, while a low weakens in the eastern
Gulf. Cold air advection along with tightening pressure gradients
between the Gulf low and high pressure is maintaining windy
conditions across much of the Gulf, and through bays and passes.
Skies are mostly clear across Southcentral under a dry, northerly
flow with overnight temperatures in the teens to single digits.
Out west, a frontal system associated with an occluded low near
Saint Matthew Island is moving east across the Bering Sea. A
wintry mix of precipitation along with gusty southerly winds are
occurring over the Alaska Peninsula, while snow and gusty
southerly winds are occurring over coastal Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The latest operational model runs are in decent agreement with
the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the
surface and in the upper levels. Overall, confidence is
increasing for an impactful winter storm event to occur this
weekend and early next week over Southcentral. An initial upper
level wave will arrive from the west, bringing snow across western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys tonight into
Sunday morning. A second and potent upper level wave then arrives
Sunday into Monday. Widespread, significant snow accumulations are
possible from the Kenai Peninsula northward to the Mat-Su
Valleys. The main challenge is the exact timing and where the
heaviest snowfall or precipitation will fall associated with the
secondary wave. Additionally, precipitation type for locations
along the northern Gulf coast remains a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Snow returns
across Southcentral beginning late tonight or early Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Saturday through Monday)...

The clear skies over Southcentral are already beginning to give
way to increasing clouds from the southwest which herald the next
storm system. This will be a major storm for most of Southcentral
Alaska Sunday into Monday, with widespread heavy snow and areas of
gusty winds producing blowing snow.

The first round of precipitation will move to Kodiak late this
afternoon and then to the Kenai Peninsula and farther north
overnight. There is a question as to whether Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley will see any snow Saturday night as this first
wave of the system will move through quickly and then produce
fairly strong easterly cross-barrier flow over the Chugach
Mountains and Kenai Mountains. This set-up should actually put
Kenai and Soldotna in the area of greater snowfall Saturday night.
The bigger issue will be the low on Sunday. This surface low will
track just to the east of the Kenai Peninsula Gulf coast as a
strong 500 mb trough approaches the area from the west. This will
combine to cause ample moist air from the Pacific over a thermal
gradient over the land which is a good combination for
precipitation. In addition., the warm air will remain over the
Gulf of ALaska keeping precipitation snow for all areas except for
Kodiak Island which will turn to rain overnight Saturday night,
and the immediate Gulf coast which may mix with rain before
turning back to snow. All Inland areas are under a Winter Storm
Watch due to snowfall amounts and intensities generally from
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. There is also the
chance for blowing snow in the Kenai Peninsula along Cook Inlet,
as well as higher elevations including Turnagain Pass and Thompson
Pass. This storm has the potential to cause widespread travel and
transportation disruptions across Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong but weakening frontal boundary is arriving ever so
slightly ahead of schedule, with snow and gusty south to southeast
winds now extending along the coast from western portions of
Bristol Bay and up across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect for both regions due to mainly the
restricted visibilities from blowing snow with gusty winds
continuing along mainly coastal areas. As the front weakens,
conditions will improve as winds begin to relax and as snowfall
becomes more intermittent and showery. Additional snow
accumulations with this first round will be anywhere from 2 to 5
inches across western Bristol Bay, with perhaps up to 2 more
inches across the Y-K Delta.

The attention by this afternoon and evening shifts quickly to the
next impactful storm system expected to approach from the
southwest. A deepening low is expected to approach the southern
Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) later today as it moves generally towards
Kodiak Island and into the western Gulf. North of the center, a
new band of moderate snow will develop first over Bristol Bay,
then spread northeast into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight.
This is anticipated to be a long duration event, with steady
snowfall not expected to end until the low pushes into the
northern Gulf Coast and as colder, drier air filters back into
place from the northwest late Sunday night into early Monday.
Storm total snowfall across Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay is
expected to range from 7 to 12 inches, with the heaviest amounts
focused across the eastern half of of the region closer to the
Alaska Range. Additional weather headlines may be necessary for
this next round of snowfall, so check back soon for further
updates.

Looking towards Monday, the return to more clear and cold
conditions will likely be cut short, with another low and
attendant front expected to reach the coast with another round of
precipitation by Monday evening and overnight. This will likely be
a more quick hit of snow, with mixing with rain possible along
the coast as the low approaches the Y-K Delta early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A front associated with an occluded low now moving past St Matthew
Island will move into Southwest and diminish by this afternoon.
Gusty westerly winds up to gale force will continue south of the
low center as it lifts north through tonight, namely across the
central and northern Bering near the Pribilofs and St Matthew. A
push of cold air moving southwest around the low will help kick
off snow showers across the eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs on
Sunday, while also aiding in the development of northwest gap
winds increasing to gale force out of bays and passes along the
southern Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians through Monday
morning. Meanwhile, another low will move into the southwestern
Bering between Sunday and Monday, ushering gale force winds and
rain across the western Aleutians. The low and its attendant front
will arc east on Monday into Monday night, pushing gusty winds and
mainly rain across the rest of the Aleutian Chain and Pribilofs as
it advances towards the Southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Latest model solutions for Tuesday continue to depict a weakening
area of low pressure along the northern Gulf of Alaska coast,
weak ridging skirting the Eastern Aleutians, and a second area of
low pressure lifting northward into the western Bering. Across
Southcentral this will help to see snow decrease across the region
and winds to also diminish. However, a quick moving air mass of
colder 850 mb temperatures moving through the Copper River Basin
may see outflow winds temporarily linger along the Gulf coast over
the first half of Tuesday. High pressure then builds over the
region with warmer temperatures through Thursday.

Out west, ensemble guidance and operational models want to bring
a strong Kamchatka upper low into the western Bering by the middle
of next week. While there are differences in the overall
intensity of the low, placement of the low between ensembles and
even operational models is in relatively good agreement. The
placement of the low will result in strong southerly warm air
advection ahead of the low, including the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula. So much so that Southwest Alaska could see
anomalous warm temperatures and the predominant precipitation
type as rain. Over the Bering, models signal the likelihood of
gale to storm force winds, both ahead and behind the low. The
direction of winds would remain out of the south ahead of the low,
while out of the north behind the low. Furthermore, significant
cold air advection on the backside of the low and across the
western Bering would favor an even higher wind threat.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch: 101 111 121 125 131 141 145.
         Winter Weather Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 120 130 131 139 150 155 160 165
					   178 180 181 185 351 411-414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...BL