Storm Warning 172, NWS Anchorage, AK

670 
FZAK52 PAFC 100014
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 115 nm North of Shemya moves over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula into the Chukchi Sea for Sun afternoon. Its front moves 
across the Aleutians and Bering into the Gulf of Alaska by Sun 
morning. A 1007 mb North Pacific low moves along the front to 50 
nm West of Sitkinak at 986 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable
wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt
increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt decreasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 22 
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKST Fri Dec 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow with rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... W 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Thu Dec 8 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively tilted upper-level trough extends from the Chukchi
Sea to the Alaska Panhandle. A surface low at the base of this
trough has now exited the region and continues to move over the
eastern Gulf. The cyclonic flow and moisture advection resulting
in areas of light snow over the Copper River Basin this morning
are also both weakening, allowing for snow to taper off across
most locations over the eastern half of Southcentral. Elsewhere
across Southcentral, a developing northerly flow aloft, cold air
advection, and southward track of various vorticity maxima, are
all combining to produce stout offshore winds through favored gap
locations. Winds today have routinely gusted between 35 and 45
mph for Seward and Whittier, with 25 to 35 mph for Valdez.

Out west, conditions are a bit more tranquil, with broad
northwesterly flow and occasional snow showers across the AKPen
and eastern Aleutian Chain in the wake of an elongated surface
low moving southeast away from the AKPen. An upper-level ridge is
building across the central Bering with the next storm system
spinning up well southwest of Attu.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Latest operational runs are in good agreement with the placement
of synoptic-scale features through the first half of the weekend.
Divergence in the models begins Sunday as a potent upper-level
wave moves from the North Pacific into the western Gulf and its
potential interaction with a weakening wave and associated
surface front moving across Southwest Alaska. Models are all
indicating that this feature will likely tap into a deep moisture
source as it begins to move toward the Southern Mainland. The
biggest challenge will be placement of the synoptic surface
features and where the more significant areas of precipitation
(likely snow) develops moving into the latter half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is the
potential for an increase in northeasterly winds with occasional
gusts 15 to 20 kt early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cold air advection (CAA) will impact the region at the onset of
the forecast period. Anchorage, the Mat-Su valleys and the Copper
River Basin will be brutally cold and dry tonight, Friday and
Saturday. We are monitoring a low that is currently in the North
Pacific that will push across the Bering and the leading edge of
the precipitation shield will hit Kodiak Saturday morning. By
Sunday morning the remnant moisture from this system will have
moved up Cook Inlet bringing another round of precipitation to the
Kenai Peninsula. The models are not in lock step regarding the
amount of snow that Anchorage can anticipate from this system on
Sunday. The evolution of this system is actively being monitored
with each new model run, but this is clearly a system of interest
for the Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly quiet weather through Friday as a ridge to the west
produces northerly flow across the area. A weak shortwave will
skirt parts of the Kuskokwim Delta with a few snow flurries
possible through tonight. A frontal system will approach the area
Friday night and Saturday morning with winds increasing from the
southeast. This front will bring light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta
late Friday night into Saturday with 1 to 5 inches expected
through Friday evening. Strong winds up to 40 knots will produce
blowing snow with visibilities down to a half mile mainly from
coastal areas inland towards Bethel. Temperatures will warm into
the lower and mid 30s by Saturday afternoon ending the threat of
blowing snow for the Kuskokwim Delta. This front will also move
into Bristol Bay Saturday morning with blowing snow down to a half
mile expected from Togiak to the Dillingham area. Snowfall of 4
to 8 inches is expected through Saturday evening from Koliganek to
Dillingham and Togiak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High Pressure is expected across the eastern Bering through Friday
with gusty northerly winds on the south side of the AKPen
decreasing by Friday morning. A strong low pressure system will
move towards the western Aleutians and Bering Sea bringing rain
and gale force winds with storm force gusts tonight and Friday.
The front will push eastward across the Bering and Aleutians
through Saturday morning with gale force winds. The AKPen will
also see gusty southeast winds and rain Friday night and Saturday
morning. Behind the front colder air will move across the Bering
on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term begins Sunday night into Monday with a highly-
amplified pattern in place with an potent surface low and
associated upper-level wave situated over the western Gulf. These
features will be tapping into an impressive moisture plume that is
expected to lend to significant snowfall amounts across much of
Southcentral for Monday. There is still some uncertainty as to the
position of the low and its associated front, with the GFS pushing
the front right to the immediate coast. If the front does make it
onshore, there will likely be a changeover of snow to rain for
coastal locations like Seward and Whittier. However, with cold air
in place initially, if warmer air does not make over the region,
as other models are suggesting, the precipitation should remain
all snow for along the coast.

This system departs on Tuesday as another highly amplified upper-
level ridge moves from the Bering east to the western half of the
state. Both the GFS and EC show this ridge quickly moving east as
yet another upper-level trough moves across the Bering. A surface
low is expected to lift north across the eastern coast of Russia,
with its front moving into the eastern Bering by Tuesday
afternoon. As the front occludes, a shortwave lifting north from
the Pacific looks to spin up a new surface low along the front and
drive the low northward. This solution, although slightly varying
between the GFS and EC, would likely bring warmer air aloft
northward across the state, and potentially introduce
precipitation type issues across the Southern Mainland for
midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119-121 127-132 136 138 150 155 165 170-181
                       185 351 352 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
LONG TERM...TM