Storm Warning 162, NWS Anchorage, AK

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 201226
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210300-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 51N 179W moves to 54N 172E at 980 mb Wed morning
as it exits into the North Pacific. Another low develops near 53N
169W Wed morning and moves to 53N 171E at 980 mb by Wed morning. 
A 969 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 166W Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK62 PAFC 210038
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211445-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering Sea. A 973 mb low at 53N 178E moves to 
53N 164E at 977 mb Wed morning, then exits into the North Pacific. A 
967 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 170W by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

697 
FZAK62 PAFC 211215
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220215-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering. The front weakens Thu through Fri 
morning. A 979 mb low at 54N 174E exits into the North Pacific by 
Thu morning. A 964 mb North Pacific low tracks over 54N 167W at 
975 mb on Thu afternoon and then to 53N 177W at 980 mb by Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft. Snow showers and
rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.  
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

559 
FZAK62 PAFC 220029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221415-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering Sea. A 963 mb low at 49N 158E arches 
over the Aleutians to 50N 178W Fri afternoon at 990 mb.

$$

PKZ411-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The large scale picture is still about the same compared to the
past couple days, with an Omega block ridge still extending from
the western Gulf up into the Chukchi Sea. A deep North Pacific
low east of Kamchatka is helping to push a broad frontal zone
extending across the Bering Sea and Aleutians slightly farther
north, with bands of mainly rain continuing to stretch along the
front past the central/eastern Aleutians and just to the west of
the Pribilofs. Strong southeasterly flow is continuing to drag
warm, moist air into much of the Bering, with surface temperatures
along most of the Aleutian Chain and still mostly in the 40s.

Out across the southern Mainland, the main story continues to be
the bitterly cold temperatures and mostly clear skies under Arctic
high pressure. Almost all lower elevations away from the coast are
now experiencing sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest
temperatures in the -30s to -40s observed across the Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin. A shortwave trough moving into
Southcentral from the north is supporting an enhancement of north
to northeast upper level flow as well, which is helping enhance
cold drainage winds flowing out of the Copper River Basin through
Thompson Pass and Valdez, as well as through parts of the
Matanuska Valley. This is causing some rapid fluctuation in
temperatures for places such as Wasilla at times, as winds
intermittently pick up and mix down warmer air above ground level.
Some patchy low fog/stratus has managed to persist under the low
level temperature inversion still in place from the Knik Arm and
Anchorage down into the western Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement is fair at the synoptic level for the first half
of the week, but there is still much up in the air with the exact
details for a few key features. A mesoscale low that has developed
in the Gulf quickly becomes subject to the first area of forecast
uncertainty, with models still not in agreement for the
trajectory of this low as it drifts generally northwest through
Tuesday. The NAM and Canadian models are attempting to accelerate
the low north into the Prince William Sound on Tuesday morning,
while the ECMWF and GFS stall out the center near Middleton
Island. This is most notably impacting the forecast for snowfall
across the western Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
region. The scenario where the low accelerates north would likely
result in much higher chances for snow farther west into the Kenai
Peninsula. There is also disagreement for the track and strength
of a low expected to form along the front stretching across the
Bering from Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in forecast
uncertainty for the strength and placement of stronger winds near
the low/front.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Areas of thin, low stratus and patchy fog have held on
mainly towards the east side of Anchorage this morning. There is
still some potential for this to drift over the terminal and
occasionally drop ceiling/visibility to to IFR range. However, low
level northerly flow is likely to increase slightly through this
afternoon, and this should help mix out any low stratus still in
place later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday)...

An upper level ridge continues to bring mostly clear skies and
below normal temperatures to the area. Patchy areas of fog and low
stratus remain possible today through Tuesday morning across the
Knik and Turnagain Arms, Anchorage, as well as the western Kenai
Peninsula. However, an upper level low will develop over the
Copper River Basin and meander near Prince William Sound through
Tuesday. At the surface, a couple of compact lows will move
across the northern Gulf very slowly to the west. These features
will produce areas of light snow near Cordova late today and into
Tuesday with a few inches of snow possible. There is model
uncertainty on how strong and where these lows will travel which
makes for a difficult forecast through Wednesday. Still, most
models keep the snow near coastal locations around Prince William
Sound and Kodiak Island while inland areas of Southcentral remain
dry with continued below normal temperatures. On Wednesday a ridge
will move into the Gulf from the south and will push the upper
level low inland and cause it to weaken which will also weaken the
surface lows across the northern Gulf. The Mat Valley winds will
blow near Palmer and Wasilla which will increase temperatures.
Additionally, gap winds will increase a bit for Valdez and
Thompson Pass which could bring some areas of blowing and drifting
snow, but overall visibility should remain favorable with little
if any impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday morning)...

Cold and clear conditions persist across the Southwest Mainland
as a result of a large blocking ridge encompassing much of the
western domain. Northeasterly offshore flow also continues along
the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coasts. The Alaska Peninsula
continues to see relatively warmer temperatures, clouds, increased
chances for rain, and gusty easterly winds. The aforementioned
weather conditions will hold for much of the short-term period
while the upper-level ridge is gradually broken down by upper
troughs on either side. For Wednesday through Thursday morning, a
strong surface front lifts north to the Alaska Peninsula,
spreading clouds from south to north across the entire domain. The
heaviest precipitation will be focused along the Alaska
Peninsula, but parts of the Southwest Mainland may also see
increased chances for some precipitation. Northeasterly offshore
flow is expected to significantly increase Wednesday into Thursday
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coasts with the arrival
of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Thursday morning)...

The Bering Sea and Aleutians will continue to see more active
weather through the short-term period. An upper-level low
currently near the Kamchatka Peninsula will extend its front
across the Bering through Thursday morning. Multiple surface lows
are advertised to form along the front as the front itself
gradually orients east to west across the Bering by Thursday
morning. Widespread storm-force winds are expected across the
central Bering Sea on Wednesday and may extend into the eastern
Bering by Wednesday afternoon before gradually weakening on
Thursday. Temperatures should remain warm enough for the dominant
precipitation type to be rain, however a rain/snow mix is not out
of the question along the leading edge of the front. Rain will
likely transition into the wet snow across the Pribilof Islands
for Wednesday into Thursday.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A blocked, high amplitude ridge dominates over western Alaska
through the eastern Pacific. Offshore flow and bitter cold
temperatures prevail for inland Alaska going into midweek. The
trough sinking south across Alaska early in the week appears to
stall midweek and become elongated and stretched through the
Bering while the eastern Pacific ridge remains stubborn to
breaking down. Couple this with a large area of cyclonic flow over
the Aleutians and an enhancement of strong easterly winds look to
span across the Gulf and into the eastern Bering. The Bristol Bay
area and the Alaska Peninsula could have especially gusty winds
and a broad swath of precipitation Thursday.

Cold air drainage may continue through the rest of this week as
cold air sits over the interior. Any enhancement to the pressure
or temperature gradient could help to accelerate air through wind
prone gaps over Southcentral and near the Gulf coast.

A similar repeat in this pattern is possible going into next
weekend. A Canadian trough sinking south and stretching west into
the Bering. The challenges under this synoptic regime is whether a
low will suppress the eastern Pacific ridge enough to bring a
system to the Gulf. It appears possible at the end of the week.
There is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the synoptic
pattern during this timeframe. The track of any low east could be
blocked and progression of a low could be bumped north or west.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 185,412.
         Gale Warning: 119,155,165,170-172,179,411,413,414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119,139,160,180,181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...VR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

AKZ121-220100-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

...Potential for ice jams on the Kenai River from Kenai Keys to
Soldotna...

Observed and forecasted abnormally cold temperatures across the
Western Kenai Peninsula through the remainder of the week will
increase the potential for freezeup ice jams along the lower
portion of the river from the Kenai Keys downstream to Soldotna. A
local observer reports the river is mostly frozen downstream of
the Soldotna Bridge, but remains mostly open upstream to the Kenai
Keys. This sets the stage for the potential of anchor ice buildup
on the river bed and hanging ice dams along the river that could
cause localized overflow flooding. Locations that have had
previous flooding issues due to ice buildup include the Big Eddy
area and the Riverside Drive/Eddy Lane Subdivision.