Storm Warning 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

030 
FZAK62 PAFC 200035
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201445-
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A Kamchatka low extends a front across the Bering through Wed 
afternoon. A 985 mb low forms along the front at 53N 179E Tue 
morning and moves to 54N 163E at 984 mb by Wed morning.
A 972 mb North Pacific low reaches 53N 165W by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKST Mon Dec 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 201226
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210300-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 51N 179W moves to 54N 172E at 980 mb Wed morning
as it exits into the North Pacific. Another low develops near 53N
169W Wed morning and moves to 53N 171E at 980 mb by Wed morning. 
A 969 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 166W Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK62 PAFC 210038
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211445-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering Sea. A 973 mb low at 53N 178E moves to 
53N 164E at 977 mb Wed morning, then exits into the North Pacific. A 
967 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 170W by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 32 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 PM AKST Tue Dec 20 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

697 
FZAK62 PAFC 211215
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220215-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering. The front weakens Thu through Fri 
morning. A 979 mb low at 54N 174E exits into the North Pacific by 
Thu morning. A 964 mb North Pacific low tracks over 54N 167W at 
975 mb on Thu afternoon and then to 53N 177W at 980 mb by Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft. Snow showers and
rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.  
Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

559 
FZAK62 PAFC 220029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221415-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A stationary front extends from the eastern Aleutians northwest 
through the central Bering Sea. A 963 mb low at 49N 158E arches 
over the Aleutians to 50N 178W Fri afternoon at 990 mb.

$$

PKZ411-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Sun Dec 18 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level ridge over Southwest Alaska through the Bering
Strait has retrograded a little allowing a slightly stronger
northerly gradient aloft over Southcentral Alaska today. This is
helping to increase the northerly gap winds and spin up a surface
low near Middleton Island which can be seen especially well on
visible satellite.

Farther west, stratus remains over the interior Kenai Peninsula
as can be seen on the Daytime snow-fog band from the GOES
satellite. The gap winds through the Matanuska River Valley are
not strong, but have been enough to locally break up the
inversion over Wasilla and raise temperatures to 10 to 15 above
while Palmer and Big Lake are below zero or struggling to reach
zero this afternoon.

Southwest Alaska is clearing out today though there is some north
winds as well which are dropping wind chill reading to well below
zero such as near Bethel. Temperatures over the Bering Sea are
rather warm due to the warm ridge over the region. Cold Bay and
Dutch Harbor are caught in the frontal band between this ridge and
a low in the western Aleutians. bringing wind and rain to these
areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model agreement is good over the synoptic-scale, but there
are a few areas that should be looked at a little closer. The
biggest area of uncertainty is in the north Gulf coast just south
of Prince William Sound tonight through Tuesday. Models agree on
there being a low but low strength and especially track is quite
different which will impact winds and snowfall around the Prince
William Sound region of the early part of the week. There is also
some discrepancy on the way numerous weak lows develop and move
along a frontal boundary across the Alaska Peninsula through
northwest Bering Sea during the mid-week period. Models are in
good agreement with the front itself which is a more significant
feature, but some of the forecast for the Bering Sea may be
adjusted due to these lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance for fog to develop again overnight.
However, due to the increased northerly winds, it looks like it
would be more of the periods of fog moving in and out variety and
not long-duration fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

An amplified ridge of high pressure, extending down into the
Alaska Peninsula from Arctic Russia, will begin to retreat
northward over the next 24 hours as troughing over Yukon begins to
expand into Southwest Alaska through Tuesday. Generally clear
conditions are forecast across Southcentral through Monday, though
the usual threat of fog will exist in the low lying areas and
beneath the upper inversion. A colder air mass also continues to
filter into Southcentral from the Alcan border and should allow
for continued subzero overnight lows for the region. Glennallen
dropped below minus 30 degrees last night and will likely do so
again tonight. Anchorage will be "warmer" and in the minus single
digits. Winds through Thompson Pass will remain gusty with wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible through Monday night.

Some question marks with the forecast begin to arise over the
next 24 hours with the evolution of a small low pressure center
into the northern Gulf on Monday. Model agreement has been poor,
but this area of low pressure could bring snow into Cordova and
the Eastern Chugach Mountains on Tuesday. A frontal system then
looks to cross the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday on approach to
Southcentral. Kodiak could see a mix of rain and snow while
coastal areas further north would likely not see precipitation
impacts until early Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A fairly quiet, cold and dry weather pattern will continue across
Southwest over the next few days as offshore northeasterly flow
persists. Offshore flow will be strongest on Wednesday, especially
in coastal areas along the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A fairly active weather pattern is expected over the next few days
as low pressure moves in from the North Pacific. This low will
bring widespread gale force winds across the central and eastern
Bering/Aleutians Monday through Wednesday. Widespread storm force
winds are expected across the central Bering Sea on Wednesday.
Rain will also accompany this low across the Pribilof Islands and
Aleutian Islands. Temperatures will be warm enough for the
dominant precipitation type to be rain. As temperatures cool on
Wednesday, precipitation is likely to turn to wet snow at the end
across the Pribilof Islands before tapering off.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A blocked, high amplitude ridge dominates over western Alaska
through the eastern Pacific. Offshore flow and bitter cold
temperatures prevail for inland Alaska going into midweek. The
trough sinking south across Alaska early in the week appears to
stall midweek and become elongated and stretched through the
Bering while the eastern Pacific ridge remains stubborn to
breaking down. Couple this with a large area of cyclonic flow over
the Aleutians and an enhancement of strong easterly winds look to
span across the Gulf and into the eastern Bering. The Bristol Bay
area and the Alaska Peninsula could have especially gusty winds
and a broad swath of precipitation Thursday.

Cold air drainage may continue through the rest of this week as
cold air sits over the interior. Any enhancement to the pressure
or temperature gradient could help to accelerate air through wind
prone gaps over Southcentral and near the Gulf coast.

A similar repeat in this pattern is possible going into next
weekend. A Canadian trough sinking south and stretching west into
the Bering. The challenges under this synoptic regime is whether a
low will suppress the eastern Pacific ridge enough to bring a
system to the Gulf. It appears possible at the end of the week.
There is still a lot of uncertainty associated with the synoptic
pattern during this timeframe. The track of any low east could be
blocked and progression of a low could be bumped north or west.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 127 155 170-172 179 185 411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
LONG TERM...VR