Storm Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

713 
FZAK52 PAFC 051043
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-052315-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure exits the eastern Bering through Sunday morning. A 
983 mb Sea of Okhotsk low extends a front that tracks into the 
central Bering for Sunday afternoon. This front connects to a 
1005 mb North Pacific low that tracks to 100 nm North of Seguam 
Island at 992 mb by Sunday night.

$$

PKZ150-052315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-052315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt
becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt, Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 
kt in the afternoon, Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-052315-
Bristol Bay-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-052315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-052315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-052315-
Unalaska Bay-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-052315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-052315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-052315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-052315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-052315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-052315-
Adak to Kiska-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft Bering side...16 ft Pac side.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-052315-
Kiska to Attu-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-052315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-052315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-052315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-052315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, cold, upper-level trough and its associated low continues
to be parked over northern Alaska. A surface low can be seen on
Water Vapor Imagery early this morning located along the Gulf of
Alaska coast near Cordova. Clouds are beginning to fill in due to
the troughs orientation helping to reinvigorate light snow showers
across the Southcentral region early this morning. Radar returns
are observed over the Matanuska Valley, Anchorage, Prince William
Sound, and the eastern Kenai Peninsula regions. Much drier air is
being brought into the domain as the flow has turned northerly,
making the majority of accumulations light in nature.

Further west, cold air advection upstream of the aforementioned
trough is bringing colder temperatures and strong northerly winds
across the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska. The Kuskokwim
Mountains continue to be effective in blocking low-level clouds
resulting in widespread clearer skies for the Bristol Bay region
and Kuskokwim Valley as shown on Nighttime Microphysics Satellite
Imagery this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through the
short-term. Model spread grows slightly with the subtle features
such as the timing of weak upper-level waves and how they may
impact the gusty gap winds that will occur the next few days along
the Gulf coast. This will be the main forecast challenge in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Dry northerly winds will continue today with gusty
conditions possible this afternoon, keeping conditions VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today through
Saturday night)...

A change in the weather pattern will bring colder temperatures,
clearing skies, dry conditions, and strong gap winds across the
area. An upper level low with some light snow across Anchorage,
the Matanuska Valley and Kenai Peninsula is moving southeast
across the Kenai Peninsula and will move through the Gulf this
will set the stage for strong northerly gap winds today. Another
shortwave will dive southeast fairly quickly across Southwest
Alaska today and cross Kodiak Island by the afternoon and evening
hours producing a few snow showers. This shortwave will reinforce
the strong northerly gap winds. Another shortwave will dive south
Saturday and will bring even colder temperatures across the
Copper River Basin. This shortwave is expected to produce a fairly
strong Matanuska Valley winds where a High Wind Watch is in effect
Saturday morning through Sunday morning. However, there is
uncertainty on the strength of these winds. The current thinking
is that sustained winds will be up to 45 mph with gusts up to 60
to 65 mph. So there is low forecast confidence right now that a
High Wind Warning will be needed for the Matanuska Valley.
Additionally, winds will increase across Thompson Pass and Valdez
where there is higher confidence in stronger winds occurring.
Currently a High Wind Watch is in effect for this area from
Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Current thinking is gusts
of 75 to 80 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Another quick shot of snow showers pushes into Southwest Alaska
beginning early this morning with the approach of a surface low
pushing out of Russia. Southwesterly onshore winds will continue
through this morning, transitioning to northerly as the low tracks
across the western Alaska Range. Cold Arctic air fills in behind
the system, dragging across Southwest towards the Alaska
Peninsula. With the cold air advection comes increased gusty
winds, most notable through the Kuskokwim Delta and along the
AKPen, as well as through the gaps and passes south of the AKPen.
The heaviest snow is expected to fall just ahead of the peak
winds, though, the combination of new, transportable snow
accumulations (though minor) and lingering falling snow will
create visibility issues at times. As such, Blowing Snow Advisories
have been issued for both the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
Note that the main area of concern for blowing snow through
Bristol Bay will be along the AKPen, from Port Heiden up to
Iliamna. However, other areas along the coast such as Dillingham
and Cape Newenham may also see periods of reduced visibilities due
to blowing snow, but overall conditions in these areas should
remain above Advisory criteria. New snow accumulations of up to 4
inches is possible in the Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim
Valley today, with highest amounts expected along the Mountain
ranges. Up to 2 inches of new snow accumulation is possible across
Bristol Bay.

Conditions begin to improve by early Saturday morning as the low
moves out and an upper level ridge approaches Southwest Alaska,
drying it out. Winds should keep temperatures from lowering too
much tonight, even with less cloud cover. Clearer skies overnight
Saturday may promote some radiation cooling, with temperatures
dropping into the single digits, sub-zero in the lower Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Cold air advection on the western flank of a surface low
traversing across Southwest Alaska will flow across the
Alaska Peninsula today. Gusty winds through the gaps and passes
south of the Alaska Peninsula are expected to increase this
evening and persist into Saturday morning. Additionally, areas of
snow and blowing snow may cause visibility issues along the
southern AKPen. There will be areas of freezing spray along the
immediate Southwest coast as well as south of the AKPen through
Saturday morning. Elsewhere, relatively benign weather is expected
underneath an upper level ridge. A frontal system moves into
the western Bering on Saturday morning and remains stationary
through Sunday morning. This is due to a North Pacific low pushing
northwards towards the Central Aleutians not allowing the front
to progress any further east. Gusty, storm force winds are expected
along the eastern edge of the North Pacific low and will reach
the Eastern Aleutians (near Nikolski) early Sunday morning. Along
with it will be areas of heavy precipitation for the Central and
Eastern Aleutians, Southern AKPen, and Pribilof Islands on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Strong model agreement in the synoptic pattern for Southwest
Alaska into Southcentral Monday shifts to mild uncertainty by
Wednesday. The cause of this divergence in solutions is a common
culprit, a deteriorating ridge over Southcentral. Models often
struggle on the breakdown of these ridges and tend to break them
down faster than what occurs. This will lead to some uncertainty
in the long term, particularly for how far east precipitation is
able to make it into Southcentral. The 12Z GFS solution breaks
down the ridge particularly quickly, swinging a low from the
Bristol Bay area into the Gulf by Tuesday afternoon. The 00Z
Canadian offers a more resilient ridge that fends off the low,
however swings a surface low bringing elevated precipitation
across Southcentral. Currently, it is difficult to tell how the
low will progress across the Alaska Peninsula due to the ridging.
Questions of how far north/east the low will push remain
debatable. Out west, after the low moves out to the east, much of
the strong precipitation features will have moved out and zonal
flow will set-up. Some models do suggest a North Pacific low
moving into the Central Aleutians by Thursday morning, however
this is not well agreed upon and time will tell. In summary, the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska is looking to be warmer and
wetter, while Southcentral will remain colder and drier.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155, 161.
		 High Wind Watch: 111, 131.
		 Special Weather Statement: 125.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 120, 127, 130, 352.
		 Gale Warning: 119, 121, 125-126, 128-129, 131-132, 136,
					   138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 177-178, 180-181,
			           185, 351, 411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 120.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1056 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     SNOW             1 SSE SUTTON            61.71N 148.87W
11/04/2022  M4.3 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.

0614 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.30N 149.53W
11/04/2022  M4.6 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL 4.4 INCHES TOTAL 9.0
            INCHES STORM TOTAL CURRENT: FLURRIES, 18F.

0928 AM     SNOW             15 E ANCHORAGE          61.23N 149.44W
11/04/2022  M6.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            TOTAL SNOW SINCE 10:30PM THURSDAY. VERY
            LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.

0949 AM     SNOW             11 SSE ANCHORAGE        61.07N 149.77W
11/04/2022  M0.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&