Storm Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

061 
FZAK52 PAFC 171140
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180030-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 40 nm northwest of Toksook Bay sits nearly 
stationary through Mon afternoon before moving to 45 southwest of
Cape Newenham at 1002 mb and dissipating Tue morning. A front 
pushes into the western Bering Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-180030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180030-
Bristol Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180030-
Unalaska Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180030-
Adak to Kiska-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180030-
Kiska to Attu-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt. From Shemya W, SW wind 55 kt becoming W 30 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the
afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt becoming SE 45
kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

936 
FZAK52 PAFC 172350
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181230-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb low 20 nm northwest of Toksook Bay dissipates through 
Tue morning. A front pushes into the Western Bering early Tue 
morning, reaching the Eastern Bering by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind
10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181230-
Bristol Bay-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt except NW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181230-
Unalaska Bay-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181230-
Adak to Kiska-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt in the evening becoming W 30 kt. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181230-
Kiska to Attu-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 35 kt diminishing to
25 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 15 kt
increasing to 30 kt after midnight.Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in 
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming SE 50
kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 22 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

362 
FZAK52 PAFC 181142
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front over the Western Bering moves eastward reaching 
the Eastern Bering by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 30 kt
becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt except S 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 45 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. From Shemya W, SW wind 55 kt diminishing to
30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
342 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming
SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

939 
FZAK52 PAFC 190003
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191315-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong 958 mb Central Kamchatka low moves to the Gulf of Anadyr
at 989 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front moves into Western Alaska 
by Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-191315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 25 kt
becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 40 kt
diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191315-
Bristol Bay-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191315-
Unalaska Bay-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming W 30 after midnight. Seas 20 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191315-
Adak to Kiska-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 22 ft.
Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191315-
Kiska to Attu-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft 
building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
403 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in 
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Broad low pressure system sits nearly stationary near the
Kuskokwim Delta today and tomorrow before dropping south to merge
with a low in the North Pacific. Associated longwave troughing
extends into the central Bering and the Gulf of Alaska. Upper
level riding over Canada clips into the Copper River Basin today,
getting shoved off to the northeast as troughing moves north from
the Gulf of Alaska. Another high pressure ridge sets up over the
western Bering and will linger through Monday evening.

Radar shows rain filling in across portions of Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska tonight. Other observations show freezing
precipitation further inland for places like the Kuskokwim Valley
and Kuskokwim Delta near Bethel, as well as in the Copper River
Basin.

Two larger systems are developing, one over Russia and one in the
North Pacific. Both will have some impact over Southern Alaska
towards mid-week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement through the short
term. Which the general consensus at the surface is better, there
are still some minute issues, mainly with precipitation and
tracking of the shortwaves. Models seem to have a pretty good
handle on the two larger systems, one over Russia and one over the
North Pacific, as they work their way towards the Bering Sea and
Gulf of Alaska respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light rain will continue. Expect periods of MVFR-IFR
conditions throughout much of the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Today through Tuesday night)...

A surface low south of Cordova this morning will move over Prince
William Sound then weaken rapidly as it moves inland by Sunday
afternoon. A widespread area of precipitation stretching from
Prince William Sound and the southern Copper River Basin to the
Susitna Valley will lift northeast across the region today as the
aforementioned low and associated upper-level shortwave move
toward the Copper River Basin. Along the coast and over the Mat-
Su Valleys and Anchorage Bowl, the precipitation is falling mainly
as rain. For the Copper River Basin, however, the precipitation
continues to fall as wintry mix, with snow in the western half of
the basin and a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the
Richardson Highway east. The frozen precipitation over this area
will wind down by late morning as southerly winds increase and
temperatures finally climb above freezing.

A series of shortwaves and surface troughs will continue to move
north across the Gulf of Alaska in the wake of this initial
system. These features will keep conditions unsettled late Sunday
through Monday. with a steady rain along the coast and periodic
waves of showers inland. With the persistent southerly flow
aloft, temperatures across much of Southcentral will stay above
the freezing mark. This will mean much of the precipitation that
falls from Sunday night through Monday is expected to fall as
rain, with the exception of locations along the northern Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin as well as higher elevations.

Attention then shifts back to the southern Gulf for Tuesday as a
potent storm system lifts north from the Pacific. A front will
swing out ahead of the center of circulation, likely bringing
strong winds and heavy rain to Kodiak Island by Tuesday
afternoon. The front is expected to continue north to the
Southcentral coast by Tuesday night. There remains a bit of
uncertainty as to how far inland the front advances for
Wednesday as the northern extent of precipitation. Right now,
this system looks to weaken quickly as it takes a more eastward
track toward Yakutat for Wednesday afternoon.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

A broad low pressure system extends across the eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula. Upper level shortwaves rotating on
the eastern side of the low is moving northward with rain across
Bristol Bay. A surge of warm, moist air has slowly changed the
precipitation type from wintry mix to all rain in the Kuskokwim
Delta. Not much changes are expected with precipitation
continuing through Monday afternoon/evening as the broad low
remains quasi- stationary. By Monday night, the low will weaken
and lift northward in response to a Bering Sea high pressure
system shifting eastward. Precipitation will then taper off as the
high builds overhead with cool, dry conditions returning on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday)...

A broad low pressure system extends across the eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula. Small craft northerly winds along
with scattered rain/snow showers continues across the Bering Sea
and Aleutian Chain as cold air streams over the relatively warm
sea waters on the back side of the low. Winds are expected to
diminish along with precipitation tapering off by Monday night as
a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Meanwhile, a front
extending ahead of a strong low in the Sea of Okhotsk will advance
eastward. This front has the potential to bring storm force
southerly winds into the western Aleutians and Bering Sea between
Monday and Tuesday.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

There is reasonably good consensus with the models most of this
forecast period. Confidence continues to increase regarding the
low tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska Tuesday-Wednesday. This low
contains the remnants of a former tropical system. All the global
models have a tight pressure gradient, expect strong (gale to
hurricane force) winds and enhanced seas with this low. Heavy
precipitation is anticipated along the northern Gulf coast. There
is a second system that will sweep across the Bering and Aleutians
with the front near Cold Bay Wednesday morning. Expect gale force
winds and precipitation. This front will weaken as it approaches
the Southwest Alaska coast. Cyclonic flow will impact the Bering
through day 6 and by Saturday the models are out of phase. It is
also worth mentioning that temperatures will be warmer than
normal. A number of locations in Southcentral, including Anchorage
and Palmer will see afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
40s.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 141
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
LONG TERM...PJS