Storm Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

990 
FZAK61 PAFC 301157
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-310015-
357 AM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 mb low at 58N 140W weakens to 1004 mb as it moves to 58N 142W 
Mon night.

$$

PKZ351-310015-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ352-310015-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

718 
FZAK61 PAFC 302351
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-311415-
351 PM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low at 58N 140W weakens to 1000 mb as it moves to 57N 
143W Mon night.

$$

PKZ351-311415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 PM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ352-311415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 PM AKDT Sun Oct 30 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large upper-level trough exists between the Bering Strait and
western Gulf of Alaska. Towards the the bottom of the trough is
our well-advertised North Pacific Low, aided by the left-exit
region of a strong 160+ kt jet streak, that moved from the Bering
Sea and across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) last evening. This
system continues to move quickly east across the southern Gulf of
Alaska as its front impacts Kodiak Island with rain, snow, and
gusty winds. The trough continues to take on a negative tilt as
Southcentral Alaska enters moist southerly flow in the upper
levels. A shortwave trough, evident on Water Vapor imagery,
continues to push inland to Southeast Alaska and extends somewhat
towards the Copper River Delta. Meanwhile, sandwiched between the
shortwave coastal trough in southeastern Alaska and the negatively
tilted trough pivoting eastward in the southwest Gulf is an upper
shortwave ridge moving through the eastern Gulf. A closer look at
the surface, via Middleton Island Radar, reveals convective/showery
precipitation bands moving northwestward through the Copper River
Delta, Prince William Sound, as well as the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Portage and Seward observe snow, while Whittier reports
a mix of rain and snow. Also of note is the continued tight
pressure gradient at the surface with high pressure in the Copper
River Basin interior and low pressures in the northern and
southern Gulf. This is causing gusty gap winds through the Valdez
Narrows and Valdez Arm where northerly wind gusts are around 25
kts. Kenai and Middleton Island Radars are both picking up on
light returns over the Anchorage area, but no precipitation is
making it to the ground due to dry air present.

Out to the west, precipitation in the form of snow is falling in
Koliganek, Dillingham, over Bristol Bay, as well as along the
AKPEN near Port Heiden. This is in association with the system
that impacted the Bering/Aleutians last evening. The system
continues to move off to the east as wrap-around snow showers and
gusty northerly winds are left over on the backside around Bristol
Bay and the AKPEN. Meanwhile, locations in the Kuskokwim Valley
(Bethel and Sleetmute) report clear conditions.

For the Bering Sea, conditions continue to quiet down in the wake
of what was a hurricane-force low that has since moved to the
southern Gulf of Alaska. A low amplitude trough with an associated
shortwave digs southeastward from the Bering Strait upper low and
is producing clouds and gusty conditions for the central and
eastern Aleutians. Meanwhile, conditions in the Pribilofs have
quieted down somewhat as they are on the backside of the eastward
moving North Pacific low. Clouds, northwesterly winds, and
scattered snow showers remain in the area as additional weak
shortwaves move through the upper northwesterly flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The latest 00z guidance continues to be in relatively good
agreement with the overall synoptic pattern and with the placement
and intensity of synoptic features throughout the short-term. The
forecast continues to be locked in with the track of the
Bering/North Pacific system into the Gulf of Alaska today and
throughout the weekend. The forecast challenge for the east domain
remains the timing and placement of mesoscale shortwaves for the
north Gulf Coast that pivot around the low pressure spinning in
the central Gulf during the weekend. Guidance also strongly
suggests northerly flow in the upper levels to commence during the
end of the short-term during the day on Monday. This should help
continue to keep the majority of Southcentral Alaska on the dry
and cool side of the weather equation.

Guidance also continues to be pretty well clustered with the
timing of an elongated shortwave pivoting southeastward from a
Bering Strait upper low towards Bristol Bay and the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN). Models keep most of the precipitation confined
to the AKPEN with scattered precipitation for Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley. Also of note is relatively good agreement with
the progression/evolution of an upper low over Kamchatka that is
poised to move into the extreme northwestern Bering Sea by the
beginning of next week. The 00z ECMWF and CAN models are a little
more south into the Bering with the system, while the 00z GFS and
00z NAM are a little north towards the Russian coast. The forecast
challenge will be the interaction, if any, of this upper feature
with a northwest Pacific low as next week progresses. Also, the
timing of mesoscale shortwaves affecting the Aleutian Chain
emanating from the two systems will need to be ironed out as new
data is analyzed.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist with northerly
winds generally 10 kts or less. There could be some enhancement of
the northerly winds with a few readings above 10 kts this morning
as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat with the strong
Bering/North Pacific low now moving into the southern Gulf of
Alaska and higher pressure in the northern Susitna and Copper
River Basin. As the system continues moving eastward, the gradient
will relax this afternoon into the evening with winds remaining
below 10 kts. A few flurries are possible and could make it over
the Chugach Range this morning as a weak and low amplitude
shortwave pivots around the Gulf system. Kenai Radar shows light
returns evident around the terminal and the Anchorage area,
however, no precipitation is making it to the ground yet due to
dry air in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday)...

A low just south of Kodiak Island is moving east-northeastward
into the Gulf today through tonight and then remain nearly
stationary in the eastern Gulf on Sunday. The front associated
with this low is the main weather feature today in Southcentral
with precipitation along the Gulf coastal areas including Prince
William Sound. Kodiak has seen heavy, wet snow overnight with
temperatures (and dewpoints) in the mid 30s in Kodiak City. The
flow over Kodiak turned more northeast than due east due to the
low track and speed which seems to have kept just enough cold air
above the surface to keep precipitation snow overnight. Even so,
their precipitation is expected to turn to all rain at sea level
early this morning and then switch back to some snow showers this
evening as flow turns northwest and brings colder air back into
the area. This northwest flow will also bring in drier air as well
so these snow showers are not expected to result in much
additional snow accumulation.

The other area seeing some snow this morning is the eastern Kenai
Peninsula including eastern Turnagain Arm. This snow is expected
to taper off this morning and therefore limit accumulations.
While radar shows some reflectivity over the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage area early this morning, the low level
atmosphere is quite dry and snow falling in these areas is
expected to sublimate before it reaches the ground. That said, a
few flurries could make it to the surface in those areas this
morning.

As the low moves into the eastern Gulf, it will weaken into a
trough along the north Gulf coast to Southeast Alaska. This will
usher in colder and drier air into Southcentral once again and
will increase the northwesterly gap winds, especially around the
Kodiak area. This does not mean that the inland areas around
Southcentral are in for a bunch of sunny days. There will be some
clearing at times, but the upper level longwave trough will remain
over the area. That, coupled with the trough along the coast will
help push some moisture back over Southcentral. This will likely
not bring snow for most of the area, but there remains a chance
the cold advection will suddenly spin up a low somewhere along
this trough that brings some snow to coastal areas with Prince
William Sound region being the most likely to see something like
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday afternoon)...

A low located over the western Gulf of Alaska continues to
influence strong northerly winds across the eastern Bering and
Alaska Peninsula. Behind the aforementioned low, convective
showers will bring light snow across the Alaska Peninsula and the
Southwest coast throughout the day today and tonight.
Northwesterly winds will decrease as the aforementioned low tracks
further into the Gulf, but will increase again Saturday evening
through Sunday as a shortwave drifts across the region. By Monday,
a front will track towards the Southwest, bringing with it
southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and another round of
rain/snow to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Today
through Monday afternoon)...

An occluded low located over the western Gulf of Alaska continues
to drive strong northerly winds across the eastern Bering and
Aleutians. The aforementioned low will move out of the region by
this afternoon, but gale force winds will continue to impact the
eastern Bering and Aleutians with strong gusts expected through
bays and passes. As colder air moves over relatively warmer seas,
snow showers will be produced over the Bering. By Sunday morning,
a low located near Kamchatka will begin to push its associated
front across the western Bering, bringing southerly small craft
winds with it. Models are showing the aforementioned low phasing
with a North Pacific low tracking across the Aleutian Chain on
Monday. However, models have not had good run-to-run consistency
with the phasing and timing of these the two aforementioned
features. Expect an influx of warmer air and rain as moisture
streams northward across the Bering Sea through the beginning of
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

By Tuesday November 1st, there is some divergence in the global
models and this divergence gets amplified with time. There are a
few nuggets. For starters, at 500 mb cold anomalies will persist
across much of the Southwest AK and Southcentral AK this forecast
period. This is consistent with the position of the longwave
trough over Mainland Alaska and the Gulf Of Alaska. Expect lows
from the North Pacific and Bering but the exact timing of the
track remains uncertain. By 12z Wednesday, the ECMWF has a storm
force low in the Bristol Bay region but the Canadian has this
system closer to Kodiak. By Thursday, both models have this
system in the Gulf Of Alaska with widespread northerly flow over
most of the Bering. By Friday Nov 4th the models have a new low
south of Attu and a new low near Kamchatka. Overall, expect a
progressive pattern with chilly temperatures over most of
Southwest AK and Southcentral AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.

MARINE...Storm Warning: 352, 130-132.
         Gale Warning: 351, 165, 160, 155, 150, 136-139,
                       127, 120, 119.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
LONG TERM...PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1139 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DUTCH HARBOR            53.89N 166.54W
10/28/2022  M64 MPH          ALEUTIANS WEST     AK   AWOS

            PADU G 64 KTS (74 MPH) AT 6:30PM. PEAK OF
            EVENT WAS 73 KTS (84 MPH) AT 8:13PM.

&&

MF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1153 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ATKA                    52.24N 174.21W
10/28/2022  M75 MPH          ALEUTIANS WEST     AK   AWOS

            ATKA2 G 65 KTS (75 MPH) AT 9:06 AM.

&&

MF