Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

391 
WWAK62 PAFC 101556
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
756 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022


AKZ155-110600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0009.220610T2000Z-220611T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
756 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA 
MAINLY FROM BETHEL NORTH AND EAST...

* Winds...North-northeast 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to 30 mph over 
  elevated terrain. 

* Timing...Hot, dry, and windy conditions expected to begin
  around noon today through 10 pm this evening. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...73 to 79 degrees.

* Location...Kuskokwim Delta north and east of Bethel. This 
  includes the villages of Bethel, Kwethluk, Akiachak, Akiak, 
  Tuluksak, Upper and Lower Kalskag.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ153-110600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0009.220610T2000Z-220611T0600Z/
Middle Kuskokwim Valley-
756 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM AKDT THIS 
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM 
VALLEY FROM THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NORTH...

* Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Highest 
  winds across the higher terrain. 

* Timing...Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected to begin 
  around noon and continue through 10 pm this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...72 to 76 degrees.

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley from the Kuskokwim River 
  north. This includes areas north of Aniak, Chuathbaluk, 
  Crooked Creek, Red Devil, Sleetmute and Stony River.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

980 
WWAK62 PAFC 110054
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ155-110600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220611T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
454 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
MAINLY FROM BETHEL NORTH AND EAST...

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to 30 mph over elevated 
  terrain. 

* Timing...Hot, dry, and windy conditions ongoing.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...70 to 75 degrees.

* Location...Kuskokwim Delta north and east of Bethel. This 
  includes the villages of Bethel, Kwethluk, Akiachak, Akiak, 
  Tuluksak, Upper and Lower Kalskag.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ153-110600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220611T0600Z/
Middle Kuskokwim Valley-
454 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY FROM THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NORTH...

* Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Highest 
  winds across the higher terrain. 

* Timing...Hot, dry, and windy conditions ongoing.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...70 to 75 degrees.

* Location...Middle Kuskokwim Valley from the Kuskokwim River 
  north. This includes areas north of Aniak, Chuathbaluk, 
  Crooked Creek, Red Devil, Sleetmute and Stony River.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

630 
WWAK62 PAFC 110552
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
952 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

AKZ155-110700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220611T0600Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
952 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR 
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MAINLY FROM 
BETHEL NORTH AND EAST...

The hot, dry, and windy conditions have ended.

$$

AKZ153-110700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220611T0600Z/
Middle Kuskokwim Valley-
952 PM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY FROM THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NORTH...

The hot, dry, and windy conditions have ended.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Cloudy skies are present over much of Southcentral Alaska as an
easterly wave continues to move over the region. With this wave
weakening, radar shows that rain has largely petered out over
Southcentral. In the Gulf of Alaska, a compact surface low is
phasing with a broad, vertically stacked low. A band of high
clouds is beginning to push into Southcentral as the compact low
moves into the northern Gulf.

Clearer skies are present over the Susitna Valley and much of
Southwest Alaska, though a handful of showers and some clouds are
lingering after yesterday evening's convection. The upper level
low that helped initiate these showers is visible on water vapor
imagery near McGrath. Partly cloudy skies are revealing numerous
fires over Southwest, whose heat signatures can be seen on
nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Smoke and haze from
these fires are visible on webcams, and they are reducing
visibilities in locations like Koliganek and Dillingham. In
southern Bristol Bay and along the Alaska Peninsula, the low
stratus and fog that blanket much of the Bering Sea are making a
push inland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in fairly good agreement through the short-term,
especially with large-scale features. Model disagreements with
the upper level low moving across Southwest Alaska today have
largely been resolved as models are converging on a solution. An
upper level low moves south from the Arctic beginning Friday, with
minor model differences concerning its track. Model differences
are bigger with another upper level low approaching the Alaska
Peninsula from the North Pacific. The positioning of these lows
will affect how the shortwaves rotating around them will behave.
Models are hinting at a robust shortwave tracking between these
two upper level lows Sunday night. Whether this shortwave moves
into Southcentral (GFS), the Gulf (NAM), or Southwest (Canadian)
remains to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions will likely last through mid-morning as
the lower cloud deck over the Chugach Front Range streams
westward. Showers are possible through the day, but weak steering
flow should keep them mostly along the mountains. Gusty Turnagain
Arm winds will bend across the terminal beginning this afternoon.
Winds should peak in the evening, then linger through late
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
through Sunday)...

An easterly wave is moving from the western Copper River Basin
into the Susitna Valley early this morning. This wave is rapidly
dissipating but is bringing increased moisture into the Susitna
Valley. It also has dropped temperatures in the Copper River
Basin into the lower 40s and into the mid thirties through Chickaloon
Pass this morning.

The first (and weaker) of two upper level lows is moving
southward just west of the Alaska Range and will help keep some
instability over the Susitna Valley and western Cook Inlet this
afternoon. There may be some isolated thunderstorms again this
afternoon and evening in the Susitna Valley, but it looks like a
lot less than what we have seen in recent days.

For Saturday and Sunday, there is just not a whole lot of
features to talk about. A weak upper level ridge will move over
Southcentral which will reduce the shower activity. However, it
will not be enough to clear out the mostly cloudy conditions nor
suppress showers and possibly a thunderstorm over more
mountainous areas those days. The basic description for the
weekend is: mostly cloudy with afternoon and evening showers,
mainly over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Friday and
Saturday)...

Another hot, dry, and windy day is expected for the Kuskokwim
Delta and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. Check back for updates on
the potential for Red Flag Warnings that may be issued later this
morning as conditions are expected to be very close again for
these areas today. Next, a very compact and strong upper level
low is barreling its way southward through the Middle Kuskokwim
Valley as this is being written this morning. This will continue
to dive southward reaching the Bristol Bay coastline just in time
for the afternoon. Due to this, expect ample daytime heating which
will help instability to increase and lead to afternoon
convection yet again. Unfortunately, more insult to injury is
expected today as yet another round of lightning has the potential
to add to more fire starts on top of the ones already going on.
Expect widely scattered wet thunderstorms to develop mainly from
New Stuyahok to Iliamna on south with the movement being offshore
towards Bristol Bay. There may be some isolated wet thunderstorms
across the Lake Clark National Park and Reserve also this
afternoon and evening.

Areas of dense fog are ongoing this morning mainly from Dillingham
east to Igiugig on south to Nelson Lagoon and Cold Bay. Fog is
expected to mix out by mid to late morning. After the fog lifts,
expect some daytime heating which will help to destabilize
conditions along the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon as the
aforementioned upper level low moves southward towards the area.
As a result, due to the upper level support and instability,
isolated wet thunderstorms are expected for areas from Pilot Point
to Port Heiden late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
The upper low continues moving southward into the North Pacific
for Saturday taking any showers with it. Behind this, subsidence
will take over and lead to potentially another night of fog for
the coastal areas of the Alaska Peninsula from Nelson Lagoon north
to King Salmon.

Next, the flow will turn more to the west-northwest and northwest
for the Kuskokwim Delta leading to cooler conditions for Saturday
as well as a slight increase in min RH values compared to previous
days as a more maritime airmass begins to move into the area.
Coastal areas especially will notice the difference. Then, across
interior Southwest, an upper level shortwave moving across the
area will lead to another round of isolated wet thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. These are mainly expected on a
line from Sleetmute south to Koliganek on east. The warm and dry
conditions will continue for these areas also on Saturday with
temperatures near to above 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2:
Today and Saturday)...

Quiet and benign weather will continue for much of the Bering and
Aleutians today through Saturday with winds generally remaining
under small crafts area-wide. The one exception will be areas to
the north and east of Nunivak Island where seas to 8 ft and
sustained 25 kt winds are expected tonight through Saturday. Areas
of low stratus and patchy fog will continue through the first
half of the weekend especially across the southern Bering and much
of the Aleutian Chain. The Pribilofs continue to be the tricky
area due to being in and out fog for the past few days which will
remain the story through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in good agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features, but diverge in the
specific details towards the end of the period. Beginning on
Monday, an upper level ridge builds across eastern Alaska and the
Yukon Territory, with a general warming trend for much across the
mainland through midweek. Meanwhile, a slow-moving retrograding
upper low over western Alaska will help guide systems under its
base south of the Alaska Peninsula and towards the Gulf. This will
bring cooler temperatures, cloudier conditions, and the potential
of wetting rain into the Southwest region and parts of
Southcentral between Tuesday and Wednesday. Out west, a deep North
Pacific low lifts northeastward toward the Western Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands between Wednesday to Thursday. Even though there
are some differences with the track, position, and strength, the
region could expect to see rain and gusty, southeasterly winds
along and ahead of the associated front as the system approaches
the second half of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/MF