Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

878 
WWAK61 PAFC 310608
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1008 PM AKDT Mon May 30 2022


AKZ111-310715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220531T0600Z/
Matanuska Valley-
1008 PM AKDT Mon May 30 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

Red flag warning has expired. Temperatures are cooling and winds
will continue to diminish through the night, allowing for 
conditions to drop below criteria.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKDT Mon May 30 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level ridge remains parked over Southwest and
Southcentral. Mostly clear, warm, and dry conditions are
prevailing across nearly the entire southern mainland. However,
Nighttime Microphysics Satellite Imagery are revealing that
marine stratus in blanketing much of the Bering and sitting right
on the Southwest coastline. The Gulf is also covered in marine
stratus and is banked against much of the coastline with it also
covering Shelikof Strait and working its way up Cook Inlet and
could go as far north as Tyonek this morning. Higher level clouds
are also noticed being pushed over the Alaska Peninsula as a
result of a North Pacific low tracking northeast towards the
Aleutian Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model agreement remains high. The biggest question remains
with the areas of convective instability the next few days. As
normal, the NAM has a lot more energy than the GFS but both are
mainly keeping it toward the Alaska Range.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds will increase around 2z
with gusts up to 20 kt and slowly decrease through the evening as
they turn more southerly.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3...Memorial Day through Wed)...

Another warm and dry day is in store for this day of remembrance.
The ridge of high pressure will reorient over the area today.
Marine stratus has taken over most of the Gulf of AK and is now
stretching up Cook Inlet. This is due in part to some up-Inlet
flow on the western side of the ridge. The few places near the
coast that will see marine stratus today (Seward, Kodiak, Kenai,
etc) will see much cooler temperatures than the past few days. The
stratus will likely burn off for Kenai and Seward around midday,
but it will have a better chance to persist for Kodiak with
onshore flow. Stratus and fog will linger over the Gulf through
the day and try to make another shove onshore again tonight.

Two features will dominate the weather to start the week. First,
the ridge will reassert itself stretching from the Copper River
Basin into SW AK. Second, a N Pacific storm slide towards the
southern Gulf. The ridge will bring the more impactful of these
two features and will in fact hold the storm and its associated
front at bay. The storm will bring breezy easterly winds and
clouds to Kodiak and the southern Gulf. But it will not make much
northward progress before it starts to depart the area on Tue.
Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure will help to create a
thermal trough over inland parts of Southcentral. This will lead
to several more warm days with 850mb (5,000') temperatures
continuing to climb towards 12C by the middle of the week. Expect
daily high temperatures to continue to run around 10 degrees above
normal. This pattern can also bring some convective showers over
the mountains. However, forcing and flow look too weak to support
any thunderstorm mention at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging continues moving eastward through tonight before re-
amplifying on Tuesday, extending across Southwest and into the
southern Bering. A short wave moves south to north across
Southwest Alaska today. Light showers are possible across the
Kuskokwim and Kilbuck Mountains, extending westward towards
Bethel. Increased instability in the afternoon may lead to some
thunderstorm activity in the aforementioned areas as well. By
Tuesday, conditions dry out yet again, temperatures will continue
to be warm, and skies will be mostly clear. Winds are also
expected to increase across Bristol Bay behind the shortwave this
evening and will gradually diminish throughout the day Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Two systems encroach on the Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain over the
next couple of days. The first is a low out of the North Pacific
pushing towards the AKPen. Small craft winds and an area of gales
will be the dominating factor, as well as some light rain. The
ridging over Southwest Alaska will keep the low from being able to
track an further north. The second system is already situated just
northwest of the Western Aleutians. A series of troughs cycling
around the low is helping to force the mainland ridging eastward.
Rain showers and gale force winds are expected along the frontal
boundary as it moves across the western Bering Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than
15 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

Bering Sea: A low south of the western Aleutians will produce
Gale force winds across the western and central Bering and
Aleutians through Thursday. The low will slowly track east and
weaken with winds decreasing to small crafts by Friday. Seas
will be 12 to 16 feet near the swath of Gales and then slowly
subside through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in good agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features, but diverge in the
specific details towards the end of the period. An upper level
ridge will continue to dominate the southern mainland while low
pressure will be south of the Gulf of Alaska, with a thermal
trough across Interior Alaska. The prevailing weather for much of
southern Alaska will be mostly sunny with above normal temperatures
and dry conditions. The Gulf of Alaska will likely see stratus
and areas of fog and the Bering Sea will see areas of rain and
overcast conditions. Towards Saturday and Sunday the deterministic
models want to introduce more convection south of the Alaska
Range mainly over the higher terrain, but it is too far out to
predict if it will occur with these small scale features.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...Flood Advisory: 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 150, 155, 177-178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW/RC