Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

677 
WWAK61 PAFC 271149
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKDT Fri May 27 2022


AKZ101-280300-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.220527T2000Z-220528T0600Z/
Anchorage-
349 AM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT FRIDAY FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE 
AREA...

* Winds...North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the 
  afternoon. 

* Timing...Noon to 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-280300-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.220527T2000Z-220528T0600Z/
Matanuska Valley-
349 AM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT 
FRIDAY FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY 
AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY...

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Timing...Noon to 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Location...Wasilla, Palmer, Matanuska Valley and Knik River 
  Valley. Highest winds gusts expected across the Knik and 
  Matanuska Valleys.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ121-280300-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.220527T2000Z-220528T0600Z/
Western Kenai Peninsula-
349 AM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT 
FRIDAY FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN KENAI 
PENINSULA...

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the 
  afternoon. 

* Timing...Noon to 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ145-280300-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.220527T2000Z-220528T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
349 AM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT 
FRIDAY FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* Winds...North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the 
  afternoon. 

* Timing...Noon to 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

458 
WWAK61 PAFC 280006
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022


AKZ101-280600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220528T0600Z/
Anchorage-
406 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...

* Winds...North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
 
* Timing...Until 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires is 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-280600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220528T0600Z/
Matanuska Valley-
406 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
AND KNIK RIVER VALLEY...

* Winds...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Timing...Until 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Location...Wasilla, Palmer, Matanuska Valley and Knik River 
  Valley. Highest winds gusts expected across the Knik and 
  Matanuska Valleys.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires is 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ121-280600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220528T0600Z/
Western Kenai Peninsula-
406 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
 
* Timing...Until 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires is 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ145-280600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220528T0600Z/
Susitna Valley-
406 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY...

* Winds...North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Timing...Until 10 PM AKDT Friday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...Daytime highs in the mid 70s.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires is 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

747 
WWAK61 PAFC 280622
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1022 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

AKZ101-111-121-145-280730-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220528T0600Z/
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-Susitna Valley-
1022 PM AKDT Fri May 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

Red flag warning has expired. Temperatures are cooling and winds
will continue to diminish through the night, allowing for 
conditions to drop below criteria.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT Thu May 26 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Satellite Imagery is revealing an upper-level ridge building
eastward over mainland Alaska. Weak upper-level shortwaves are
propagating through the northerly flow along the east periphery of
the ridge, north to south. A blanket of marine layer stratus
still remains over much of the Bering and is continuing to build
toward mainland Alaska as the aforementioned ridge strengthens.
Low stratus is also observed on Satellite Imagery lingering in the
southern portion of Cook Inlet and creeping northward this
morning. Observations are indicating that much of the domain have
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s early this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement on the evolution of the upper-level
ridge through Saturday. Some difference begin to arise Sunday
into Monday as a disturbance in the northern Pacific begins to
amplify, but overall consensus is that a strengthening low will
approach the southwestern Gulf of Alaska. Confidence is above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. However,
marine stratus has developed south of Cook Inlet overnight as well
as a small patch located Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island near
Tyonek. This low stratus could potentially creep up the inlet and
approach close to the terminal later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 -
Thursday through Saturday night)...

An upper-level ridge currently centered over the Y-K Delta will
continue to slide east across the interior of the state through
the weekend. Weak upper-level shortwaves propagating through the
flow from north to south along the periphery of the ridge will
bring a slight chance of showers each afternoon and evening,
mainly for the higher elevations surrounding the eastern and
southern portions of the Copper River Basin.

With the ridge strengthening over the region, expect a general
warming and drying trend beginning today and continuing into the
the Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will push to around 70
degrees today for most inland locations, with temperatures rising
into the middle to upper 70s for parts of the Kenai Peninsula,
Mat- Su Valleys, Anchorage Bowl, and Copper River Basin by Friday
and Saturday.

One of the aforementioned weak upper-level waves is expected drop
southward across Southcentral for Friday. A stronger northerly
flow will be associated with this feature, leading to the
potential development of gusty northerly winds across portions of
Southcentral through late Friday evening.The combination of
forecasted temperatures in the 70s, winds gusting 15 to 25 mph,
and a drier airmass could drive relative humidity values down to
20% or lower from the Susitna Valley south to the Kenai Peninsula.
As a result, the potential for hot, dry, and windy conditions
going into the holiday weekend has prompted a Fire Weather Watch
Friday morning through Saturday evening.

Along the coast, the typical diurnal sea breeze pattern is also
expected to be overcome by the more dominant northerly synoptic
flow throughout the atmospheric column on Friday. The lack of sea
breeze will likely also result in warmer temperatures and lower
relative humidity values for places like Seward, Whittier, and
Valdez.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
morning through Saturday night)...

A longwave ridge of high pressure remains centered over the
Seward Peninsula this morning with a relatively dry air mass aloft
over the Bering and interior Southwest. Inland temperatures will
be able to cool off efficiently into the 40's at night while
rewarming into the 60's and 70's during the daytime hours as a
result. Ultimately, the aforementioned high pressure is forecast
to move little through the weekend. A shortwave ridge is currently
rotating around the broader high and lifting northward over the
western Bering. The net effect will be continued marine stratus
and fog over the Bering while interior Southwest experiences
clearer conditions. As temperatures continue to warm, the main
concern into the weekend will be the potential for fire weather
conditions. The Kuskokwim Delta will remain cooler with highs in
the mid to upper 60's. Further east, however, the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay regions will see afternoon highs climb into
the upper 60's and potentially the mid 70's with RH percentages
dipping into the 20's. Thursday should remain dry with little
support for thunderstorm development outside of daytime heating,
but caution should still be exercised when using fire or other
sources that can cause a spark. By Friday, however, and especially
into the weekend, one or two shortwave troughs will pivot around
the eastern periphery of the high centered over the Seward
Peninsula. Lift associated with the trough's passage may be enough
to generate isolated thunderstorm development, at least over the
higher terrain, and when combined with building instability due to
strong daytime heating. Additionally, winds are forecast to
increase with the shortwave's passage, helping to create
hot/dry/windy conditions and a greater risk for wild fires. A fire
weather watch is already in effect for the greater Bristol Bay
area through the end of the week. If, and when, confidence
increases, additional fire weather watches may need to be
introduced for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley as well. Saturday
appears to be the most favorable day for potential thunderstorms
and lightning with a more robust shortwave moving through
Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
morning through Saturday night)...

Meaningful changes will be hard to find while high pressure sits
over the Bering. Marine stratus and areas of fog continue to
blanket a good portion of the Bering as well as the Pribilofs and
the Aleutian Chain. A front south of the Aleutians will promote
small craft winds for the Western and Central Aleutians on
Thursday before the front drifts southward and away from the
region Thursday night. A second area of small craft winds are
forecast to develop on Friday over Bristol Bay and linger into
Saturday with the passage of a shortwave disturbance or two.
Finally, an upper low will dig into the western Bering on Saturday
with increasing showers expected over the Western Aleutians.

&&.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska - A weak trough collapses over the North Gulf
Coast, as high pressure moves across the the Gulf through Monday.
Forecast confidence is good. Moderate Westerly winds extend from
the Alaska Peninsula into the Central Gulf, and East of Kodiak
Island, diminishing late Sunday. Seas less than 10 feet.

Aleutians / Bering - The Bering high slides into Western Alaska
through Monday. A Kamchatka low and front sweep over the Western
Aleutians through Monday. Forecast confidence is fair due to the
speeds of movement of the low and front. Gusty Northerly winds
over the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay, diminishing Sunday.
Moderate Easterly winds extend across the Southern Bering through
Monday. Seas less than 10 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

A weakening Kamchatka low and front moves over the Western
Aleutians and dissipates in the North Pacific for Tuesday. The
main map feature is the broad ridge covering most of the Bering
and extending into Interior Alaska through Wednesday. Compared to
earlier model runs, the EC and GFS extend a moderated ridge more
North than East, stopping short of the Yukon border. The Canadian
model holds its strength further West. Forecast confidence
decreases with a slight chance of showers associated with a
thermal low in the Eastern Interior. A well developed North
Pacific low moves into the Western Gulf for Tuesday, changing in
the overall pattern, and spreading moderate winds and increasing
clouds and rain across Southcentral Alaska through midweek. To the
West, a well developed North Pacific low complex pushes toward
the Aleutians through Wednesday, bring windy conditions with low
clouds and rain spreading into the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory: 141.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Fire Weather Watch: 101, 111, 121, 145, 162.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/ED