Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

269 
WWAK61 PAFC 222348
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

AKZ101-230700-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220523T0700Z/
348 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE 
AREA...

* Winds...Southeast 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in south and
  west Anchorage through tonight.

* Timing...Until 11 PM AKDT this evening. Most favorable 
  conditions from late afternoon through early evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 19 percent.

* Temperatures...66 to 72.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-230700-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220523T0700Z/
348 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PALMER AND THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY...

* Winds...Southeast 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph through this 
  evening.

* Timing...Until 11 PM AKDT this evening. Most favorable 
  conditions from late afternoon through early evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 17 percent.

* Temperatures...67 to 72.

* Location...Palmer and along the Knik River Valley.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

923 
WWAK61 PAFC 230706
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1106 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

AKZ101-111-230815-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220523T0700Z/
1106 PM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR ANCHORAGE, PALMER, AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY...

Temperatures are cooling and winds will continue to diminish
through the night allowing for conditions to drop below criteria.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Sun May 22 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large vertically stacked low spins south of the Aleutians with
multiple embedded surface lows. High pressure ridging exists over
western Alaska and west-southwest Canada, placing Southcentral and
parts of Southwest Alaska in a col. Troughing over northeastern
Alaska drops south over the Copper Basin overnight Sunday and the
trough over the Gulf pushes north towards the North Gulf Coast. At
the same time, high pressure over western Alaska moves south to
encompass Southwest Alaska and take over much of the Bering Sea.
The low embedded within the trough over the Gulf tracks south of
the Kodiak and the AKPen early next week, unlikely to cross over
the AKPen due to the strong ridging pushing south.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in pretty good synoptic agreement through the short
term. There are still some discrepancies with the low at the base
of the trough passing south of Kodiak on Monday. It seems the GFS
is still the outlier here placing the low center further south
than the rest, but there is better agreement compared to
yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds today will be lighter
than they have been, and should remain mostly south-southeasterly
throughout the day. Anticipate some gusty Turnagain Arm winds
overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Sunday
through Tuesday)...

The biggest forecast challenge for today is just how dry and
breezy it will get in parts of Southcentral after the warm, sunny
and windy day yesterday. There is increased mid level clouds over
Southcentral from a short wave moving through from the interior.
There is a little more moisture at low levels flowing up Cook
Inlet as seen by dewpoints from Anchorage southward being higher
this morning than they were a day ago. There should still be some
gap winds like the past two days due to the ridge nosed up along
the north Gulf coast and heating inland, but there is not that
great of a gradient so these winds may be a bit less than
yesterday. Not completely convinced they will be that much
lighter so that is probably the biggest area of uncertainty.

The stronger of the two lows tracking just south of the Gulf has
moved west of Kodiak. The second low is not as strong but will
continue to bring rain to Kodiak Island into tonight and then the
rain will taper off with just a chance of rain the next few days.

After today, we get into a bit of a pattern change with that
strong upper level ridge retrograding westward and bing replaced
by a trough digging into the Copper River Basin from the
northeast. This will bring in increased clouds over Southcentral
(except for Kodiak which would have a hard time getting cloudier
than it is now). There is also increased instability especially in
the Copper River Basin on Monday into Tuesday which could bring
some shower activity there as a result. Temperatures across the
region will also become a bit more seasonal especially compared
with the above average temperatures of the past number of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

An easterly wave is tracking along a front that is moving from
the western Gulf and into the eastern Bering Sea, which is causing
the ongoing strong easterly winds. As the aforementioned easterly
wave tracks across the region this morning and into the Bering,
winds will begin to slowly diminish. Increased cloud cover and
slightly cooler air advecting into the region with the
east/southeast flow will keep temperatures cooler today. High
temperatures will be in the low 60s across Bristol Bay to upper
60s over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta. A
shortwave ridge swinging down into the Southwest from the Norton
Sound area will turn prevailing flow more northeasterly and
offshore Monday. This will help aid in bringing another warm, dry
and increasingly clear day. High temperatures Monday for all, but
higher elevations, will reach into the 60s with few low 70s
possible along and near the Kuskokwim River. A weak northerly
shortwave will move into the Kuskokwim Delta by Monday night
resulting in increasing cloud cover and isolated showers across
the Kuskokwim Delta and Kilbucks. The aforementioned ridge will
weaken and result in flow shifting more easterly by Tuesday. This
will aide in cooling high temperatures back down a few degrees
leading into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday)...

A retrograding low, expected to arc west across the Bering
through tonight, will aid in continuing overall benign conditions
for the next few days. Rain and southeast winds along the Alaska
Peninsula will diminish early this morning as the low tracks
westward. As a result, areas of rain showers will spread into the
eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs throughout today. Northerly winds
and rain will develop across the western Aleutians as the low
continues to swing southwest. By Monday, rain across the western
Aleutians will begin to diminish as the aforementioned low tracks
into the North Pacific. High pressure ridging will expand over
most of the Bering by Tuesday, resulting in persistent marine
stratus and overall quiet conditions leading into Wednesday.

&&.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A weak area of low pressure will move southward
into the North Pacific by Wednesday. An area of high pressure
will build over the Gulf through Thursday. Expect winds less than
35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

Bering Sea: An area of high pressure over the Bering Sea will
maintain winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for
the Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

There is general model agreement with the synoptic scale pattern
for the extended forecast period, with a broad upper level ridge
of high pressure extending across the Bering Sea to mainland
Alaska. Models vary on the short-waves transiting around the
ridge, but this will lead to generally quiet weather across
southern Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Aleutians. With the pattern
would expect abundant low clouds and fog across the Bering and
Aleutians. For southern Alaska, a thermal trough will form
underneath the ridge and this will serve as the focus for
afternoon/evening convection. While it's a long way out, stability
parameters look weak to moderate at best, so we're probably
looking at showers and little in the way of thunderstorms. In
addition, snow melt in the hills and mountains is still ongoing
and until the mountain slopes are snow free, that will continue to
limit instability and thunderstorm potential. Barring any other
forcing mechanisms outside of airmass instability, any convection
that does form will likely be focused near mountain ranges while
valleys will stay mostly dry. Temperatures will cool down from the
very warm temperatures of recent days to closer to normal as we
head through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 141
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF/SEB