Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
WWAK62 PAFC 251923 
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1123 AM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

AKZ163-260600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.220625T2100Z-220626T0600Z/
1123 AM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE...

* Winds...South 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Timing...Hot, dry and windy conditions are expected from 1 pm to
  10 pm today.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 25 percent.

* Temperatures...70 to 80 degrees. 60s over higher elevations.

* Location...Valleys and foothills along the western Alaska 
  Range, including Stoney and Port Alsworth.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

908 
WWAK62 PAFC 252337
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

AKZ163-260600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220626T0600Z/
337 PM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE...

* Winds...South 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Timing...Hot, dry and windy conditions are expected until 10 pm
  this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 25 percent.

* Temperatures...70 to 80 degrees. 60s over higher elevations.

* Location...Valleys and foothills along the western Alaska 
  Range, including Stoney and Port Alsworth.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

930 
WWAK62 PAFC 260601
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1001 PM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

AKZ163-260715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220626T0600Z/
1001 PM AKDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge stretches along the AKPen and across eastern
AK. A wide expanse of low stratus continues underneath this
ridge, mainly from the eastern Bering and Bristol Bay region to
the Gulf of ALaska. The low stratus has again expanded to
additional coastal locations, including King Salmon where
visibilities have dropped to 1/4 mile prompting a Dense Fog
Advisory. A low pressure system in the southwest Bering, and its
attendant front brought a period of rain to much of the Bering
from Dutch Harbor to St Paul westward, including the western and
central Aleutians. Temperatures across the region had dropped
mainly into the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement through the weekend. An upper-
level ridge remains over the Southern Mainland with the axis
slowly moving east through the weekend. Multiple shortwaves will
also track over top the ridge today and tomorrow. These shortwaves
will help initiate late afternoon and evening convection, mainly
over the Copper River Basin.

Models are also in pretty good agreement with the evolution of a
low as its tracks from the central Aleutians north into the
western Bering through Saturday with its front slowly moving to
the eastern Bering. Models continue to show a triple-point low
developing just west of Dutch Harbor, moving north on Saturday.
It's frontal system should move to the Southwest coast late
Saturday. While there may be some differences in timing, guidance
all indicates this front will stall, and eventually decay over
Southwest AK, as it runs into the ridge downstream.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
winds will be somewhat variable early this morning but become
predominantly west-southwest for the rest of the day and into the
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and generally dry conditions are expected across most of
interior Southcentral this weekend as a ridge of high pressure
remains over the region. The western half of Southcentral will see
temperatures in the 70s, while the Copper River Basin is expected
to have temperatures reaching into the lower 80s. Temperatures
for areas along the immediate coastline will remain cooler, around
the 50s and low 60s, due to the lingering marine stratus layer.
Convective activity this weekend will primarily be confined to the
Copper River Basin as shortwaves embedded within the ridge track
over the area. Isolated showers and/or wet thunderstorms are
possible this evening and Saturday evening. Wind is expected to
remain light through the weekend.

Temperatures across southwest will remain tempered on Friday as
weak ridging works its way over the region. Some clearing, from
Bethel eastward into the Alaska Range, should allow for locations
to warm into the low to mid 70's. Though winds should remain
relatively light. Conditions across Southwest are to remain dry
into Saturday for all but perhaps the Seward Peninsula. The
biggest change over the next 24 hours will be previous northerly
winds transitioning to a southerly direction through tonight.
Winds are forecast to remain mild on Friday, but will begin to
increase in speed on Saturday as heights falls overspread
Southwest and surface pressures begin to tighten. South winds of
15-20 mph with potentially higher gusts will gradually spread from
west to east through the day on Saturday, likely increasing over
the Middle Kuskokwim Valley by Saturday evening. Gusty southerly
winds are forecast to persist into Sunday with little change,
though winds may taper off in toward the Western Alaska Range
region at times. Precipitation chances are forecast to remain low
through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Sunday)...

An upper-level ridge will stretch across Southcentral through the
weekend while multiple shortwaves ride over the top of the ridge,
mainly over the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.
As a result, isolated showers and/or thunderstorms are possible
for these areas this evening and Saturday evening.

Marine stratus will persist under the ridge this weekend across
the entire Gulf of Alaska and along the coastal Southcentral
locations (including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). As of
this morning, the stratus has extended west to Kodiak Island and
has started to bend around the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula
into Cook Inlet. The latter is due to the southwesterly flow on
the back side of the ridge.

In general, as the ridge of high pressure remains over
Southcentral through the weekend, expect clear, dry, and warm
conditions to persist for most of the region. Later on Sunday, cloud
cover and chances for rain increase from the west near Kodiak
Island as a front extending from a Bering low pushes over the
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday night)...

Southwest will remain under the influence of high pressure on
Friday. This will allow for dry conditions to continue across
Southwest. To the south, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from
King Salmon down into the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula to
Nelson Lagoon. Visibility of one quarter mile has persisted
through the morning hours and is expected to linger through
roughly 10 am this morning. Clearing due to high pressure across
Southwest will allow for warmer temperatures today with mid to
upper 60's across the eastern half of Bristol Bay. Over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley low to mid 70's will be more common. Surface
winds over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and western Alaska Range
areas have been persistently out of the north the past few days.
This will change later this evening as lower pressure over the
northern Bering Sea and higher pressure over Southcentral promote
light southerly winds.

By Saturday the remnants of an occluded front will reach the
Kuskokwim Bay with gusty southerly winds of 15-20 mph developing
over the Kuskokwim Delta. These winds will expand east of the
Kuskokwim Mountains through early Sunday morning. A low chance for
light showers will also exist from Kipnuk to Toksook Bay. Perhaps
the biggest question moving into Sunday will be the strength of
high pressure over Southcentral. Models want to bring southwest
flow into mainland Alaska with multiple shortwave disturbances to
lift north-northeastward across the region. The strength of the
ridge will determine if rain chances can spread further inland.
Currently, the best chance for any precipitation will exist
primarily along the coast and wherever moisture upslopes over the
mountains. This would leave much of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
Alaska Range dry through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday night)...

What's left of a stacked upper low can be seen just north of the
Western Aleutians this morning. Its occluded front extends
southward just west of the Pribilof Islands and across the Eastern
Aleutians. Southerly small craft winds and scattered showers will
accompany the weakening front's progress into the Alaska
Peninsula through Saturday night. Gales will be possible through
the gaps and passes. Behind the front, benign conditions are
forecast to set in on Saturday. West to southwest winds up to 15
knots will become common Saturday night into Sunday over the
western Bering Sea. Over the eastern Bering, small craft winds of
25 to 30 knots may persist over the coastal waters before
diminishing over the latter half of the day on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A Southern Kamchatka low moves near Adak
for Tuesday. Its front remains South of the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Bering
by Tuesday. Forecast confidence is fair with the low's movement.
Gusty Southerly winds across the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern
Bering, diminishing. Increasing withs on the Pacific side of the
Western and Central Aleutians with the approaching low. Seas 10
feet or less.

Gulf of Alaska: High pressure lingers across the Gulf through
Tuesday. Forecast confidence is good. Moderate Southerly winds
with the front over the Alaska Peninsula, diminishing
Monday.Increasing winds along the North Gulf Coast into the
Eastern Gulf through Tuesday. Seas mostly 6 feet or less.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in good agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features, but diverge in the
specific details towards the end of the period. Beginning on
Monday, a strong upper ridge shifts over mainland Alaska and
northwestern Canada with temperatures expected to be above normal
and precipitation below normal across Southcentral into next week.
With the exception of the higher terrains, the potential for any
diurnally driven convection seems to be low given the subsidence
aloft and weak instability. Out west, some models seem to be
decently clustered on a Bering Sea upper low circulating a
shortwave from the North Pacific to track into the western
Aleutians and another system from the western Pacific. Even though
there are some timing differences, much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutians can expect increasing rain chances and possible gusty
winds during the second half of next week. Additionally, there are
hints that some of the precipitation and wind along and ahead of
the attendant front could bring unsettled conditions into the
Southwest coastal regions and the Alaska Peninsula as the
aforementioned ridge starts to break down.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF