Alert archive / Alaska / Red Flag Warnings in 2022

Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 20, 2022

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this red flag warning at May 20, 2022, 3:10 PM AKDT. It was in force for 31 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2022, 3:10 PM AKDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2022, 10:00 PM AKDT
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

725 
WWAK61 PAFC 202310
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

AKZ111-211400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0001.220520T2310Z-220522T0600Z/
310 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR HOT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, and windy conditions, which is in effect 
until 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* WINDS...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* TIMING...Now through 10 PM this evening; Noon to 10 PM Saturday.
 
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...65 to 75 degrees. 

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds are expected to remain
  gusty especially in and around Palmer through around 10 PM this
  evening. Winds subside overnight with some RH recovery. Winds
  are expected to become gusty out of the southeast again Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday evening with low min RH values. Winds
  subside Saturday evening with some RH recovery overnight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

$$

AKZ141-211400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0001.220521T2000Z-220522T0600Z/
310 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY
FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, and windy conditions, which is in effect 
from noon to 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* WINDS...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* TIMING...Noon to 10 PM Saturday.
 
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest relative humidity values are expected along the
  Richardson and Edgerton Highways, including along the Copper
  River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
928 
WWAK61 PAFC 210014
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

AKZ101-211400-
/O.EXA.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
414 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR HOT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, windy conditions, which is in effect until 
10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* Winds...Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* TIMING...Now through 10 PM this evening; Noon to 10 PM 
  Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...65 to 75 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest RH values are expected across the Anchorage Hillside,
  west and south Anchorage. Winds diminish overnight with some RH
  recovery. Winds are expected to become gusty out of the 
  southeast again for similar areas Saturday afternoon through 
  Saturday evening with low min RH values. Winds subside Saturday 
  evening with some RH recovery overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ121-211400-
/O.EXA.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
414 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR HOT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KENAI-SOLDOTNA EAST...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, and windy conditions, which is in effect 
until 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* Winds...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Where...Western Kenai Peninsula from Kenai-Soldotna east. 

* TIMING...Now through 10 PM this evening; Noon to 10 PM 
  Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds are expected to remain
  gusty across the northern Kenai Peninsula especially from Kenai-
  Soldotna east through around 10 PM this evening. Winds subside 
  overnight with some RH recovery. Winds are expected to become 
  gusty out of the southeast again Saturday afternoon through 
  Saturday evening with low min RH values. Winds subside Saturday 
  evening with some RH recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-211400-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
414 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR HOT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, and windy conditions, which is in effect 
until 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* WINDS...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* TIMING...Now through 10 PM this evening; Noon to 10 PM Saturday.
 
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...65 to 75 degrees. 

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds are expected to remain
  gusty especially in and around Palmer through around 10 PM this
  evening. Winds subside overnight with some RH recovery. Winds
  are expected to become gusty out of the southeast again Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday evening with low min RH values. Winds
  subside Saturday evening with some RH recovery overnight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

$$

AKZ141-211400-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.220521T2000Z-220522T0600Z/
414 PM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM AKDT SATURDAY
FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot, dry, and windy conditions, which is in effect 
from noon to 10 PM AKDT Saturday.

* WINDS...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* TIMING...Noon to 10 PM Saturday.
 
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest relative humidity values are expected along the
  Richardson and Edgerton Highways, including along the Copper
  River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$
528 
WWAK61 PAFC 211345
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 AM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

AKZ101-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
545 AM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...

* Winds...Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TIMING...Noon today until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 20 percent.

* Temperatures...68 to 72 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest RH values are expected across the Anchorage Hillside,
  west and south Anchorage this afternoon and evening. Winds
  subside by late this evening with some RH recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
545 AM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* Winds...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* TIMING...Noon today until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 18 percent.

* Temperatures...65 to 75 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Knik River winds are expected to become 
  gusty out of the southeast again this afternoon through evening 
  with low min RH values. Winds will subside this evening with 
  some RH recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

$$

AKZ121-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
545 AM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS NORTH OF CLAM GULCH...

* Winds...East winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Where...Western Kenai Peninsula north of Clam Gulch.

* TIMING...Noon today until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 20 percent.

* Temperatures...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to become gusty out of
  the east-southeast again this afternoon through evening with low
  min RH values. Winds will subside this evening with good RH 
  recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ141-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.220521T2000Z-220522T0600Z/
545 AM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...

* Winds...Southeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph.

* TIMING...Noon today until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 19 percent.

* Temperatures...65 to 70 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and 
  lowest relative humidity values are expected along the 
  Richardson and Edgerton Highways, including along the Copper 
  River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$
209 
WWAK61 PAFC 220018
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

AKZ101-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
418 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...

* Winds...Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Temperatures...67 to 75 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest RH values are expected across the Anchorage Hillside,
  west and south Anchorage through this evening. Winds will
  subside late this evening with some RH recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ111-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
418 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

* Winds...Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Temperatures...68 to 75 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Knik River winds are expected to remain
  gusty out of the southeast through this evening with low min RH
  values. Winds will subside late this evening with some RH 
  recovery overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

$$

AKZ121-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
418 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH OF CLAM GULCH...

* Winds...East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Where...Western Kenai Peninsula north of Clam Gulch.

* TIMING...Noon today until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Temperatures...66 to 73 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to remain gusty out of
  the east-southeast through this evening with low min RH values.
  Winds will subside late evening with good RH recovery 
  overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

AKZ141-220600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
418 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...

* Winds...South-Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM this evening.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent.

* Temperatures...66 to 71 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest sustained winds, gusts, and
  lowest relative humidity values are expected along the
  Richardson and Edgerton Highways, including along the Copper
  River. Winds subside late this evening with some RH recovery
  overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$
991 
WWAK61 PAFC 220555
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
955 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

AKZ101-220700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
955 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA...

Winds have started to subside and temperatures are cooling,
allowing for conditions to drop below criteria. Sunday will bring
another warm and dry day, but winds are expected to be lower.

$$

AKZ111-220700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
955 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

Winds have started to subside and temperatures are cooling, 
allowing for conditions to drop below criteria. Sunday will bring 
another warm and dry day, but winds are expected to be lower.

$$

AKZ121-220700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
955 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH OF CLAM GULCH...

Winds have started to subside and temperatures are cooling, 
allowing for conditions to drop below criteria. Sunday will bring 
another warm and dry day, but winds are expected to be lower.


$$

AKZ141-220700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220522T0600Z/
955 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

Winds have started to subside and temperatures are cooling, 
allowing for conditions to drop below criteria. Sunday will bring 
another warm and dry day, but winds are expected to be lower.


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 20, 5:01 AM AKDT, 10 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 5:01 AM AKDT, 10 hours 9 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Longwave high pressure ridge has shifted entirely over mainland
Alaska this morning with the ridge axis extending from Talkeetna
southward across Prince William Sound and into the Gulf. This
continues to promote warm and dry conditions across Southcentral
with a layer of marine stratus trapped over the northern Gulf.
High temperatures could reach 70 degree Fahrenheit for the first
time this year across Southcentral. Meanwhile, a North Pacific
upper low continues to lift northward toward the Aleutians with
high clouds already overspreading interior Southwest from King
Salmon to Bethel. Further south and west the front is promoting
scattered rain showers over the Eastern Aleutians, including Dutch
Harbor where perhaps up to a half an inch of rain may fall
through tonight. Regarding winds, east southeasterly gales will
become increasingly common throughout the day on the Pacific side
as well as the Bering side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula as the front continues to lift northward on Friday.
Seas, however, are forecast to stay below 20 feet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There remains good model agreement through the next 48 hours. A
broad trough of low pressure is overspreading the Aleutians this
morning with a front to eventually stretch into the Gulf by
Sunday. If any discrepancies can be found, it's toward the end of
the period with the development of a triple point low over the
western Gulf early Sunday morning. There are some minor
differences in its placement and strength though not enough to
reduce the forecast confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning while
a ridge of high pressure remains over the region. The development
of Turnagain Arm winds is expected late this afternoon and
evening. The strongest winds will remain offshore of Anchorage;
however, some bending of the winds into PANC is expected with
southeast gusts up to 15 knots or greater.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Friday
through Sunday)...

Very little change in the overall thinking for the forecast. More
warm and dry weather for the interior of Southcentral today but a
front will move over Kodiak Island and bring rain and strong
winds. It still looks like some Turnagain Arm winds will move over
Anchorage this afternoon and evening with some Knik River winds
developing near Palmer. That will bring in a little more
afternoon wind than we have been seeing for Anchorage and
Matanuska Valley so that is a change from previous days. The other
nit of a change is a little unexpected and that is the large area
of fog and stratus that developed in the northern Gulf of Alaska
yesterday and persists into today. This stratus likely developed
in response to the surface ridge along the northern Gulf coast
enhancing ahead of the front. This increased the subsidence
allowing the stratus and for to develop. Currently it has moved
into Seward and Cordova and is starting to make inroads into
Prince William Sound. The stratus is also pushing westward to
Kennedy entrance of Cook Inlet though further progress is hard to
see as higher clouds are now moving in over that area and
obscuring the satellite imagery being used to track the stratus.
It is likely that the approaching front will start to mix enough
of the atmosphere to lessen the stratus, but it remains to be seen
if it can fully dissipate today or even tomorrow.

Expect increasing high clouds over Southcentral on Saturday with
the clouds lower by Sunday due to the front weakening the ridge.
This will also cool temperatures over Southcentral especially on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A ridge of high pressure will slowly move east as a front
extending from a low in the southern Bering lifts northeastward.
Southeasterly winds have increased along the Alaska Peninsula in
response to a tightening pressure gradient between the mainland
high and Bering low. Winds will continue to increase throughout
today through Kamishak gap and the eastern corridor of Bristol
Bay, including Koliganek and New Stuyahok. Along with increasing
winds, a decent plume of moisture and warmer air will advect from
south to north ahead and along the aforementioned front. Chances
for light rain are expected to increase this afternoon/evening for
the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest regions. Due to the strong
southeasterly flow, rain associated with this system will be
mostly limited to upslope favored areas on the Kuskokwim and
Aleutian Mountains. Therefore, the bulk of the precipitation will
be concentrated along the coastline, while the interior valleys
stay relatively dry. Light rain will continue for most of the
coastal areas as we head into the beginning of the work week with
another low pressure system tracking near the western Gulf of
Alaska by Sunday. Models are still trying to resolve this feature
and how it will interact with the dominating high pressure over
the Mainland, so uncertainty increases by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

Areas of low stratus and patchy fog under a ridge of high
pressure blanket most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. As
the ridge axis shifts slowly east, an area of low pressure is
expected to lift northward near Dutch Harbor. The aforementioned
low's front will continue to bring gale force winds with higher
gusts for the central and eastern Aleutians while slowly
diminishing tonight as the low weakens and becomes quasi-stationary
south of Atka. A decent plume of moisture and warmer air aloft
will advect northward in correspondence with the front bringing
rain to the central and eastern Aleutians before pushing westward
between Kiska to Attu by Sunday afternoon. The aforementioned low
is expected to remain quasi-stationary through the beginning of
the week, therefore, keeping chances of light rain over much of
the region into Monday.

&&.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front enters the Southern Gulf Sunday, and
moves across the Gulf through Monday. A surface low will move
over Kodiak Island by Monday. Gusty Easterly winds with the front
stretch across the Gulf, with areas of gales over Kamishak Bay,
Shelikof Strait, Sitkinak and along the Alaska Peninsula coast,
diminishing Saturday. An Easterly gale force barrier jet forms
along the North Gulf Coast. Seas to over 10 feet possible east of
of Kodiak Island. Cyclonic flow will persist over the Gulf for
the remainder of the forecast period.

Bering Sea: A mature low remains South of the Aleutians through
Tuesday. Widespread gusty winds expected for the North Pacific
low, with areas of gales from Bristol Bay into the Central Bering,
diminishing Sunday. Seas to 14 feet on the Pacific side of the
Alaska Peninsula, subsiding Saturday, and 10 feet or less over the
Bering, subsiding Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A Rex Block pattern is likely during the extended period as upper
level ridging extends across the central/northern Bering and into
northern Alaska. At 500 mb there are 2 closed lows south of the
chain and GFS keeps those lows south of the chain through Friday.
The ECMWF shows a similar evolution of the mass fields at 500 mb
this forecast period, but these two models are definitely not a
clone of each other. Expect an area of persistent ridging but also
expect a lingering closed low over the Gulf Of Alaska. Sensible
weather-wise the GFS keeps positive height anomalies over mainland
Alaska this forecast period which will translate to warm
temperatures at the surface and the continuation of snow melting.

With the closed low in the Gulf, expect easterly waves/shortwaves
to get ejected from this feature and move over portions of
Southcentral. But it is too soon to tell were these shortwaves
will track. All the global models have a closed low in the Gulf
with numerous shortwaves embedded in them.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130-132 138 150-172 180 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 20, 10:55 AM AKDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1055 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

AKZ141-202000-
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson,
and Slana
1055 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

A Flood Advisory has been issued for snowmelt in the northern
Copper River Basin. Please visit weather.gov/afc to access the
advisory and latest forecasts.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 20, 3:49 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
May 20, 3:49 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
May 20, 4:01 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
May 20, 4:01 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
May 20, 10:46 AM AKDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAFC4 hr
May 20, 3:04 PM AKDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAFC18 days

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Alaska, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.