Gale Warning 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

726 
FZAK52 PAFC 280027
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281330-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 mb low 240 nm West of Attu dissipates over Kamchatka for Sat 
afternoon. Its front moves over the Western Bering through Sat 
afternoon. A 982 mb North Pacific low moves to 380 nm South of 
Amchitka at 968 mb Fri morning, continuing to 140 nm North of Attu at
978 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front extends over the Central Bering 
through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-281330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes 
after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray north and west of 
Chirikof Island.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 12
ft. Heavy freezing spray north and west of Chirikof Island.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray north
and west of Chirikof Island.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 11 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray from the
Shumagin Islands to Unimak Island.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281330-
Bristol Bay-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-281330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281330-
Unalaska Bay-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281330-
Adak to Kiska-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 23 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281330-
Kiska to Attu-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-281330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-281330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKST Wed Jan 26 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Today represents the relative lull in between two weather systems
across Southcentral. The system that moved through yesterday
bringing snow to much of the area moved quickly to the NE courtesy
of a 100+ jet at 300mb (30,000'). A transient ridge of high
pressure and the fresh snow helped to create some patchy fog this
morning across parts of the Mat-Su Valleys. The next system is
already moving quickly from the North Pacific towards the Gulf of
AK. Snow started early this morning for Kodiak Island where
several inches had accumulated by midday. Temperatures there were
hovering right around the freezing mark, so most of the snow was
quite wet and heavy. Snow started across the southern Kenai and
parts of the Copper River Basin early this afternoon as the
occluded front lifted north. The rest of inland population
centers saw dry and cloudy conditions.

Further to the west, a storm-force low moved into the Western
Aleutians overnight and this morning. Gusts in the mid-50 mph
range were observed over Shemya Air Station. This system peaked
this morning with the aid of a 85 kt jet at 300 mb. It is now
weakening as it drifts to the north. The rest of the Bering and
Southwest AK remain quiet under a dominant area of high pressure.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models are in great agreement leading to
moderate to high forecast confidence in synoptic features. The
problematic areas of the forecast will be precipitation types at
Kodiak City and snowfall amounts through Friday morning. A
widespread, long duration will move over Southcentral starting
tonight and persisting into Friday morning. As moisture streams in
from the Gulf of AK, a trough of polar air will slide into SW AK.
While this is a favorable set-up for snow for Southcentral, due to
the subtle differences in the evolution of the pieces of energy,
uncertainty remains on exactly where the highest snowfall amounts
will be.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and north winds will persist until snow
starts late tonight. As the snow moves in, expect conditions to
deteriorate in earnest around 13z. Timing could vary by +/- 2
hours. IFR cigs and vis will be likely as snow persists through
much of Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Light snow will continue tonight and gradually intensify through
the overnight hours. As an inverted trough cycles around the
North Pacific low, precipitation will spread north and west,
beginning with the Copper River Basin and then into Anchorage and
Western Kenai tonight and tomorrow. The inverted trough will
tighten pressure gradients as cold air is drawn south and thermal
gradients will increase as well near the Valdez/Thompson Pass
areas. This will produce blowing snow through Thompson Pass as a
result and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with winds occasionally gusting to
as high as 35 mph are possible in Thompson Pass. Winds will
generally increase through tonight with light snow beginning to
pick up through the overnight hours as it spreads north and east.
Snow and isolated pockets of blowing snow will be possible for
inland areas located on the western Kenai Peninsula. However, the
combination of winds gusting to 30 mph and falling snow, will
produce the worst conditions near the Cook Inlet. As a result, a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the area. Falling snow
has already started across the Copper River Basin and will
persist into Friday morning. Snow accumulations are expected to be
between 6 to 12 inches. The highest accumulations will generally
be from Glennallen south. Meanwhile, north winds are expected to
increase from Paxson to Isabel Pass midday Thursday. Winds are
expected to gust as high as 35 mph which could reduce visibility
in blowing snow. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for this area as well. As with all blowing snow events,
visibility reductions are to be expected, as well as periods of
heavy snow and gusty winds.

Snow will continue to fall in Kodiak this evening then transition
to a rain/ rain snow mix late tonight due to warm air advection
from the Gulf. This pattern may persist with a back and forth
between rain and snow through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Saturday)...

Areas of low clouds and patchy fog extending across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta will linger through tonight.
By Thursday, an omega blocking pattern will be positioned over the
western Alaska region with the amplified ridge axis over the
eastern Bering Sea. Clear skies and colder conditions will prevail
for the Southwest mainland as the aforementioned ridge shifts
over the state. Daytime temperatures will range anywhere between
the single digits to the teens and overnight lows below zero.
Northeasterly winds will also increase from Thursday to Saturday
in response to a tightening pressure gradient between a North
Pacific low in the Gulf and the eastern Bering high. A combination
of gusty winds and cold temperatures will provide conditions
favorable for wind chills in the -20F to -30F, especially across
the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley.

As the cold, Arctic airmass descends south of the mainland on
Friday, northwesterly winds will ramp up and funnel through the
gaps and passes along the southern AKPEN. Moisture associated with
the Gulf low may push north of Kodiak Island, bringing a chance
of snow into the Alaska/Aleutian Range. Some of the moisture may
even make its away for interior Bristol Bay and the AKPEN, though
little to no snow accumulations are expected. Snow will taper off
with winds subsiding by Saturday as the low weakens and the
thermal gradient relaxes, leaving benign conditions for the rest
of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Saturday)...

Forecast remains on track with a deep North Pacific low
approaching the Western Bering/Aleutians this evening. The
associated front will bring widespread gales with storm force
gusts, rain/snow mix, and elevated seas above 20 ft into the
northern Bering Sea. With the exception of small craft winds, most
of the active weather will stay west of the Pribilof Islands and
Central Aleutians through Friday morning. Friday afternoon into
Saturday, a second North Pacific low will approach the southern
Bering Sea. Expect another round of gales and rain/snow mix
extending across the same regions. A cold, Arctic airmass moving
over the eastern Bering Sea will provide conditions favorable for
northwesterly winds to funnel through the gaps and passes in the
Eastern Aleutians from Friday through Saturday. This will also
contribute a return of heavy freezing spray for the offshore
marine zones and near the ice edge as well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A weakening low tracks across the Gulf through Monday. Forecast
confidence is good. Gusty Northwest gap winds expected through the
Barren Islands and near Sitkinak for Sunday. Gusty Westerly winds
spread across the Southern Gulf through Monday. An Easterly
Barrier Jet forms along the Alaska Peninsula into the Eastern
Aleutians for Monday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed Central Aleutian low moves to the Central
Kamchatka coast for Monday. Widespread gales from the Pribilofs
West through Monday, with areas of storm force winds near the
Western Aleutians, diminishing Sunday. Seas building to 25 feet
Sunday over the Western Bering, subsiding Monday. Seas on the
Pacific side of the Aleutians to 20 feet, subsiding Sunday.

A North Pacific low approaches the Central Aleutians for Monday.
Forecast confidence is low, due to the low's track and
development. Winds and Sea state are uncertain with this low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A quite interesting pattern is expected as multiple upper-level
shortwave troughs advance through the forecast area for the long
term. Upper-level ridging from the North Pacific transiting from
west to east (eastern Bering through Southcentral) could create a
challenging forecast especially for P-type and snowfall amounts.
Rapid-moving shortwave troughs aloft combined with cold air
advection could bring considerable snowfall amounts across
Southwest and Southcentral. Dry but cooler temperatures could
likely linger over Southcentral, and somewhat rising temperatures
and increased weather activity over Southwest through Wednesday.
Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected over the
Bering/Aleutians, posing stronger gap winds for much of the
Aleutian Chain through Wed.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 121 131 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 132 138 139 150 155 175-178 180
					  185 411-413.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 150 160 165 179 185 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...NS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CB