Gale Warning 792, NWS Anchorage, AK

300 
FZAK61 PAFC 310035
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 30 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-311345-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front lifts northward across the Gulf of Alaska Saturday
afternoon. A 955 mb North Pacific low at 54N 152W crosses Kodiak
island Saturday night and reaches 57N 158W by Sunday morning at 
597 mb.


$$

PKZ351-311345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 30 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 8 to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-311345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 30 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 9
to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 PM AKST Thu Dec 29 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A long-wave trough remains over Alaska, anchored by a large multi-
centered closed low which extends from the southern Bering Sea
across the Aleutians and into the North Pacific. A series of
short-waves extend eastward from this low center from the eastern
Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. This narrow east-west corridor
is the focus for steady precipitation today. A surface low near
the south end of Kodiak Island is tracking westward toward the
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay. Gale force northeasterly winds
are being observed north and west of the low center across the
Kodiak Island waters. Meanwhile, quiet weather prevails to the
north over most of southern Alaska. The low along the Aleutians
is producing showery weather, with a broad area of northerly
small craft advisory level winds west of the low center across
the central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fair agreement with handling of key features through
Friday night. With numerous weak short-waves traversing the
forecast area, the precipitation forecast remains a challenge,
though where precipitation does fall it will be light and not very
impactful. Much of the attention is focused on a large deep low
tracking out of the Pacific this weekend. Operational and ensemble
guidance all seem to be converging on a common low position just
south of Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula Saturday night-
Sunday. However, there are some differences with frontal
progression across the Gulf and southern Alaska, influenced by
potential for one or more frontal waves to develop. Still, there
is enough agreement to start to hone in on likely impacts,
especially for the Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak and up to Southcentral.
Essentially, all of the solutions bring heavy precipitation and
strong winds to the Gulf coastal areas, while warm air aloft will
drive inland leading to good potential for freezing rain. Forecast
confidence is lowest in the Bristol Bay area, with larger model
differences in how far west the occluded front will make it and
large differences in the resultant precipitation and wind forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A weak upper
level short-wave will lift northward across the area Friday
afternoon. With such weak forcing, worst case scenario expect a
brief period of flurries or very light snow. Whether it snows or
not, expect ceilings to bottom out at low end VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An active pattern is expected across Southcentral over the next
few days as a large low pressure system enters from the south
Saturday afternoon and evening. This low will produce widespread
gale force winds and a large area of storm force winds across the
northern Gulf and in Prince William Sound Saturday evening through
Sunday evening. A strong Turnagain Arm wind is likely on Sunday.
Due to the pressure gradient orientation, this Turnagain Arm wind
is unlikely to bend into Anchorage and is likely to bend down-
inlet.

Another major story in regards to this low will be widespread
precipitation with the potential for freezing rain across the
western Kenai Peninsula. As of now, there are fairly favorable
forecast soundings showing the profile for freezing rain across
the western Kenai Peninsula on Sunday. This pattern furthermore
supports freezing rain due to strong southeasterly flow aloft
warming the air aloft while the surface remains below freezing
from cold air damming. There is much lower confidence in the
freezing rain potential for the Anchorage Bowl due to less
favorable soundings despite a relatively favorable pattern. The
forecast challenge over the next couple of days will be to fine
tune the precipitation type forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

Quieter conditions are in store again tonight as offshore winds
and drier air filters across much of the Southwest mainland. The
main weather feature continues to be an elongated trough over the
Bering Sea. A weakening front moving over the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) continues to bring southeasterly gap winds, in addition to
rain through Friday. Moreover, a North Pacific low currently
positioned near Kodiak Island is expected to bring a wintry mix of
precipitation along the coastal Bristol Bay region. A band of
rain showers continues south of King Salmon, while snow showers
will push north and west of Dillingham tonight and taper off
sometime Friday evening. Snow amounts will be less than 2 inches,
with higher amounts favored along the coastal mountains. The rest
of the mainland will be relatively dry due to downsloping
southeasterly flow.

Heading into the Holiday weekend, attention turns to a stronger
low pressure system tracking across the AKPEN and into the eastern
Bering Sea. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing,
track, and precipitation amounts for this system. With abundant
moisture and strong winds expected, there is a potential for
another round of widespread precipitation (including blowing snow
concerns for Bristol Bay) late Saturday through Sunday. Current
forecast package has been updated to reflect these changes, but
stay tuned for any adjustments as the situation develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

An elongated trough located over the Bering remains the main
weather feature. Widespread east to northeast small craft winds
with some pockets of gale force winds will continue for the
northern and western Bering throughout the Holiday weekend.
Additionally, these winds slowly expand into the eastern
Bering/Aleutians as a strong low tracks across the Alaska
Peninsula. Meanwhile, cold, northerly flow over the relatively
warm waters will also help generate widespread showers over the
western Bering and Aleutians through early next week. Model
guidance continues to struggle with the multiple low centers
rotating around the aforementioned trough, but the main storm
tracks stays south of the forecast area.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Going into next week, the low centered near the AKPEN that is
forecast to bring this weekend's mixed precipitation event to
Southcentral will begin to weaken, with the most impactful weather
coming to an end. Though the low's occluded front will likely have
pushed inland by Monday, upslope precipitation will linger along
much of the Gulf coast as southerly flow continues to wrap around
the weakening low. Scattered, showery precipitation will also
likely continue in Bristol Bay and along the Alaska Peninsula in
the vicinity of the low center. Some mixed precipitation may
linger with this system into Monday as well. Inland locations dry
out by Tuesday morning. Later on Tuesday, a potentially gale-force
low enters the eastern Gulf of Alaska and tracks toward the
western Gulf coast. This low does not look to bring as much
precipitation, warm air, or winds as the weekend low, and its
impacts are most likely to be focused between Kodiak Island and
the eastern Kenai Peninsula Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some
light overrunning precipitation may move in over Southwest Alaska,
but it is likely to be all snow. As the low weakens into Thursday,
southern mainland Alaska looks to dry out with weak flow and no
major source of moisture available.

Out west, northerly flow prevails across the Bering Sea, with
scattered snow showers across the Aleutians through Tuesday. Then,
a large upper-level low supported by a cold air mass moving out of
East Asia begins to push into the western Bering. It is led by a
front, which appears to bring mostly snow to the western and
central Aleutians through Tuesday night, given the primarily zonal
orientation of the Pacific jet and resulting relatively weak tap
of subtropical warm air. As it pushes through, several weak waves
embedded in the broad low propagate into the Bering, keeping
relatively cold air in place and bringing periodic chances for
snow reaching as far as the eastern Bering/Aleutians by Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185
Gale 120 130 131 138 178 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
LONG TERM...CQ